Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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Quoting osuwxguynew:
Good Morning Everyone!

I'm just a little bit curious. How in the WORLD is this not an invest in the Eastern Pacific????
EPAC AVN Satellite
I was looking at that earlier and wondering the same thing. Looks pretty good although it is pretty close to land.
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Quite the brewing going on right now just over the beach IKE. Mammatus clouds before 7am. Yummy!
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Pottery not so fast look to your east 10n 50w looks a little damp.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeah. I'd say by tmrw, I think we'll see a depression out of this.


Maybe. A good chance, but not certain. Might be Friday.

Quoting srada:


I dont think you can use that synoposis especially with the storms we had this year..look at Igor and Julia..Igor Cat 5 and Julia was a Cat 4..right behind each other


Igor was a Cat 4.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeah. I'd say by tmrw, I think we'll see a depression out of this.
NHC did say later today or tomorrow. They did not say within the next 15 minutes. I am sure they are looking at everything mentioned.
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2787. srada
Quoting Msuknotmet:


I totally agree with this! Whatever happens with the "potential" Matthew it will leave cold waters in his wake.

Good morning all! :)


I dont think you can use that synoposis especially with the storms we had this year..look at Igor and Julia..Igor Cat 5 and Julia was a Cat 4..right behind each other
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TropicalDepressionGeorgette's heading had turned northward to (5.8degrees north of) North NorthWest
from its previous heading of (6degrees west of) NorthNorthWest
TD.Georgette's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~7.3mph(~11.8km/h)

21Sep 12pmGMT - - 22.1n109.5w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #1
21Sep 03pmGMT - - 22.5n109.9w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2
21Sep 06pmGMT - - 23.0n109.7w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2A
21Sep 09pmGMT - - 23.3n109.9w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - NHC.Adv.#3
22Sep 12amGMT - - 24.0n110.0w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #3A
22Sep 03amGMT - - 24.6n110.3w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #4
22Sep 06amGMT - - 25.3n110.4w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #4A
22Sep 09amGMT - - 25.8n110.7w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5
22Sep 12pmGMT - - 26.1n110.8w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5A

Copy &paste 22.1n109.5w, 22.5n109.9w, 23.0n109.7w, 23.3n109.9w, 24.0n110.0w-24.6n110.3w, 24.6n110.3w-25.3n110.4w, 25.3n110.4w-25.8n110.7w, 25.8n110.7w-26.1n110.8w, gym into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.
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Good Morning Everyone!

I'm just a little bit curious. How in the WORLD is this not an invest in the Eastern Pacific????
EPAC AVN Satellite
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2781. MahFL
Red alert !...someone call Charlie Crist, and make sure he's praying hard !
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


where has this low formed.... it is just a huge area of disorganized mess
A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
CENTERED NEAR 12N67W.
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2779. pottery
Trinidad weather now...
Temp 79F
Humid. 59%
Wind calm
Press. 1011 rising.

I can deal with this....
but it's only ten to eight....
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ThundercloudLink
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Well, it's 60% for the next 48 hours.

There may not be much today (until this evening at the earliest), but it's closing on 75W. Anticyclone up ahead.

By tomorrow, there's a good chance of something solidifying and becoming 'numbered'.
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Quoting IKE:
73 degrees here in the Florida panhandle this morning.


Moving my son up there this weekend...
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3 days out



6 days out

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Quoting P451:
You never trust anything past 120 hours for cyclogenesis. You rarely put much faith into the 72-120 range either.

We've had many major hurricanes predicted by the GFS and ECMWF this season even dating back to early June only to see it pan out twice:

Earl was well modeled from long range and did indeed form and did so in pretty much the general location the models hinted at as far back as 240 hours.

Igor was a second system that many models hinted at from long range.

No other system was properly modeled from long range.

Out of about 30 odd storms predicted long range (and they were always depicted as major hurricanes) only 2 came to be.

Maybe Matthew becomes the Third. We have to wait and see on that.

Yet, given the possibility of Matthew - I would most definitely discount the GFS' solution of multiple east coast hits because Matthew will use up a lot of energy and change the atmosphere in his wake if he decides to cross Florida and come up the coast.

So until Matthew is "out of the way" I would put very little faith in models depicting development on his heels be it a copycat system or one affecting the east coast.



I totally agree with this! Whatever happens with the "potential" Matthew it will leave cold waters in his wake.

Good morning all! :)
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we're looking at an odd day of heavy rain here in the SW as some moisture gets pulled up from the gulf of CA. Its been very dry and oddly warm for this time of year where I am so this rain will prove a nice break.
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and sticky 73' dewpoint at the bus stop this morning.
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Quoting surfmom:
Sorry Cot., I'd never survive one of your winters...just remember there's always room for you on my beach

as always, I'm concerned about 'canes in the Gomex, but this year we have yet another very nasty ingredient to deal with --- all the oil BP left coating the floor of the Gomex & on shorelines. I don't think anyone has a clue what a cane would....although insurance companies are prepared, -- oil washed up in your yard is considered Hazmat & insurance won't pay.


I thought most of it was dealt with by now? It has been kinda out the news as of late, though. I just know the leak's been permanently dealt with. I don't know about the aftermath - guess it'll take years for things to return to normal.

Our winters aren't *that* bad. Last year was a rarity. The year before that was colder than the recent average; hopefully, this year should return to the norm that we've experiencing as of late. Minus the windstorms.

Being an island helps a lot... as soon as you head inland to the continent, then yeah, it gets a lot colder. Just can see any Gulf Coaster turn into a popsicle as soon as they step outside.

Quoting WeatherMum:
nah, did my time in NW NoDak, where we suffered -80'F windchills,-49'F real temps in the winter. I can say now, that I'm enjoying the blazing ,drifting,white sands of Florida instead of snow this season.


Yeah, North Dakota's pretty hard to beat.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW
AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


where has this low formed.... it is just a huge area of disorganized mess
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2766. pottery
Good Morning all,
Nice bright morning here.
95L has the forecasters jittery, along with a lot of Coastal Dwellers too.
He could become Nasty.
Hope he knows his Place....
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2765. IKE
73 degrees here in the Florida panhandle this morning.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW
AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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best case scenario= goes south of florida worst case= too many possibilities
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4017
Ready for the cooler dryer down here too. We had heat indexes near 120 for almost two months. Dewpoints over 83 are not pleasant, add working on the beach everyday....oh wait, that was a good thing :D Long work day ahead, y'all have a great day!
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Quoting Cotillion:
Pleasant today: 62F, clear skies. We missed the Indian Summer, but that's okay.

Going to turn cold in a hurry, though. Lows of 39F by the weekend.

Anyone wanna swap?
nah, did my time in NW NoDak, where we suffered -80'F windchills,-49'F real temps in the winter. I can say now, that I'm enjoying the blazing ,drifting,white sands of Florida instead of snow this season.
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2756. surfmom
Sorry Cot., I'd never survive one of your winters...just remember there's always room for you on my beach

as always, I'm concerned about 'canes in the Gomex, but this year we have yet another very nasty ingredient to deal with --- all the oil BP left coating the floor of the Gomex & on shorelines. I don't think anyone has a clue what a cane would....although insurance companies are prepared, -- oil washed up in your yard is considered Hazmat & insurance won't pay.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
well, my classroom is waiting on me. Have a great day everyone. 'See' you all tonight.


teach them well

:-)
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Quoting IKE:


I'm not saying the season is over for the northern GOM..but if these models are correct, the odds of a major hit are diminishing. It can still happen though. I've looked at prior seasons back to about 1960, on Oct. and Nov. hits of systems.


Typically, I would put the boards away after the first good cold front. I'll delay this habit for a bit this year.
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well, my classroom is waiting on me. Have a great day everyone. 'See' you all tonight.
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Quoting IKE:


I'm not saying the season is over for the northern GOM..but if these models are correct, the odds of a major hit are diminishing. It can still happen though. I've looked at prior seasons back to about 1960, on Oct. and Nov. hits of systems.


Understood. I have all my preps done if anything should turn up. My kids are ready to dig into the 'hurricane stash'. But that always waits until 1 Nov unless the ingredients are still where something could develop, then it stays waiting for them for a little longer.
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2751. srada
Quoting DestinJeff:


Not really. Don't expect GFS has a grip on long-range with regards to all the energy.


I hope thats the case because if not...
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Still 240 hrs out on models pushing this towards s fla, way too early. It is a good time to inventory supplies and plan a what if scenario something which should've been done by now but in reality we know most haven't.

I'm not an expert by any means but common sense says wait 5 days and we'll have a better idea if:
A) There is anything out there to watch
B) If there is a Matthew where will it go inland over belize or honduras and continue west or;
C) will it come back over water?

Scary part is most of the models bring it back over water N of honduras and the GFS has Matt meandering in very warm waters s of cuba from hours 90 thru 180 before it continues to move. That's a full 90 hours, almost 4 days. Not good.

If that were to happen then take all of your supplies and run for the hills.... because then
WE ARE ALL DOOM!!!!!


GFS 06Z at 240 hours
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2749. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thanks, Ike. I guess since being hit by Lili I tend to be a bit gun shy until after 9 October.

No leaves turning here yet, not for a couple more weeks. We have our 'peek' season for leaves around Thanksgiving time. It's interesting to be teaching about fall in October and only having a couple of leaves turned. But when they finally do the kids get very excited to see it.


I'm not saying the season is over for the northern GOM..but if these models are correct, the odds of a major hit are diminishing. It can still happen though. I've looked at prior seasons back to about 1960, on Oct. and Nov. hits of systems.
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Quoting HCW:


39 is not cold and sounds perfect :) Can I paypal you money ? I would be glad to trade yucky 70's at night for that


Well, colder, I should say, correct.

That said, it's only a max of 52. Don't usually get days like that for another couple of weeks, at least.
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Top of the morning and happy hump day to all.

From the Lake Charles, NWS - reads like we are getting cooler and wetter - FINALLY!

LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND SO INCREASED
POPS...STILL NOT AS HIGH AS THE LIKELY CHANCE ON THE MEX. LOOKS
LIKE A WET WEEKEND FOR A CHANGE. BLENDED THE EARLIER AND COLDER GFS WITH
THE EURO ON TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A DEEP LOW OVER
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECENTLY RECEIVED EURO THEN WAS AVAILABLE AT ANALYSIS TIME SO
TEMPS MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SAID...FCSTED MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO
WILL BE MOST WELCOME AND COULD BE EVEN LOWER.
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2746. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Lake Charles,LA.....

LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND SO INCREASED
POPS...STILL NOT AS HIGH AS THE LIKELY CHANCE ON THE MEX. LOOKS
LIKE A WET WEEKEND FOR A CHANGE. BLENDED THE EARLIER AND COLDER GFS WITH
THE EURO ON TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A DEEP LOW OVER
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECENTLY RECEIVED EURO THEN WAS AVAILABLE AT ANALYSIS TIME SO
TEMPS MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SAID...FCSTED MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO
WILL BE MOST WELCOME AND COULD BE EVEN LOWER.

I hope the bottom drops out in temperature here, and the trough blows 95L as an open wave thru FL. We can always hope.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
ok as I said yesterday this will not develop till it gets to the western carr just like both of the other systems like it this year... the eastern carr does not allow development of storms
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2744. QMiami
any one having a problem with the image button - the size feature is gone after you paste image?

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Quoting IKE:


But the days are getting shorter...northern GOM SST's will start dropping by next week if the models verify. The odds of a major hit here are diminishing. Getting too late in the season here. An Opal track for 95L looks less likely this morning.

I noticed the leaves are starting to fall off of the trees here in the Florida panhandle and the acorns are starting to fall and hit the tin roofs.

Welcome to fall 2010 starting today.


Thanks, Ike. I guess since being hit by Lili I tend to be a bit gun shy until after 9 October.

No leaves turning here yet, not for a couple more weeks. We have our 'peek' season for leaves around Thanksgiving time. It's interesting to be teaching about fall in October and only having a couple of leaves turned. But when they finally do the kids get very excited to see it.
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2742. HCW
From Rob Lightbrown

The Canadian model ultimately forecasts this to track into the Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday and forecasts this to come ashore along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline next Thursday night or next Friday morning.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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