Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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One of the biggest concerns in the state would be a Major rolling in and up the mouth of Tampa Bay... Lets hope we dont see that any time soon.

That is the White Whale.......
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Quoting Seastep:


Not sure if it is required over there, but here in Broward, the gas stations all now have generators as it was mandated after Wilma. Plenty of gas, just couldn't get it out of the ground.


That was the problem, tons of gas with no electric to force it upwards.
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Watch out FL!!!!!!!
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Sure looks Extratropical to me!

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Dry Air, Interesting...



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1086. flsky
Quoting victoriahurricane:


Oh my god! And Igor's "only" a Category 1 Hurricane. They seriously need to account rainfall and storm surge into ratings. Hermine did huge damage thanks to her rains and she was only a tropical storm. I feel so sorry for my other fellow Canadians in Newfoundland, hopefully no one is killed.

They just had an interview w/a mayor of a town in this area. He said that they are now cut-off b/c of the road damage. Also, lots of houses are already inundated. Not pretty at the moment.
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As others have noted, Igor has--finally--left the building. :-) Here are his numbers:

IGOR
ACE: 42.445 (33.7% OF CURRENT SEASON TOTAL)
HDP: 40.1925
HIGHEST DAILY ACE: 6.51 ON 2010/09/13
Initial TWO: 5PM EDT 2010/09/08
Final Tropical TWO: 5PM EDT 2010/09/21
TWOs as TS: 11 (66 HOURS / 2.75 DAYS)
TWOs as HU: 39 (234 HOURS / 9.75 DAYS)
TWOs as MH: 20 (120 HOURS / 5.0 DAYS)
Total TWOs: 50 (300 HOURS / 12.5 DAYS)

Definitely one to remember...
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SHIPS and LGEM both make 95L a dangerous hurricane. SHIPS indicates a 58% chance for rapid intensification.
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DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR...JULIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...


I think that they mean Lisa here right? and if so could we get another major cane out of this?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Models Now Keep it Over Water....


Sammay agree with you - all models now show recurve to NW which generally keeps 94L over water and trouble for whole GOM. Where it goes from there is a guess but, if typical of storms recurves this year, Florida west coast better watch this one.
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Quoting sngalla:


Also, many of the grocery stores now have generators.


Publix has generators at every store... They are the poster kids for preparedness
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Quoting Tazmanian:
WOW look at this from Igor


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM
.



Wow... So, since Igor has now been relabeled as post-tropical, I wonder what his official max size will be. Will they go with this for the record, or only count when he was tropical?
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It's amazing how accurate tracking of storm development and forward progression has come with modeling over the past 30 years. We here in Mobile will be watching closely as Matthew potentially forms into a powerful hurricane.

Thank you everyone for the information you show in this blog on a daily basis. This resource is at least 1000 times better than the weather channel, especially after nbc/general electric bought it. The weather channel used to be the ultimate authority, and now Weather Underground is.
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The Florida law requires that gas stations along predetermined evac routes have to have the generators.

There aren't many here in Pinellas..

One other thing - every EM office in the state encourages folks to provide for themselves for a period of time after the storm - we tell people in Pinellas to plan for 7 days at a minimum...

If you don't have a plan, now's a REALLY good time to get one together.

http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency
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1075. sngalla
Quoting Seastep:


Not sure if it is required over there, but here in Broward, the gas stations all now have generators as it was mandated after Wilma. Plenty of gas, just couldn't get it out of the ground.


Also, many of the grocery stores now have generators.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Lisa and 95L. Man!

Good afternoon everyone!


Good Afternoon, long time no talk!
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Quoting StormChaser81:
EM services work for keeping government running.

But your on your own after the storm for food and water.

I hate to say this, but we almost ran out of water and food during Charley. I went without power for 9 days.

They were handing out food and water at certain spots, but no gas for 100 miles from my location and gas was almost like gold.

This perspective that Florida is no big deal after a storm, is way off.

The government might run smoothly, but the people on the ground not so much.


Thats why they say to be prepared to be completely on your own for 2 weeks after a storm.
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Quoting oceanblues32:
anything yet on 95L where do we think it may be heading this weekend




still a little too soon too say
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


"It'll be just like Beggar's Canyon back home..."
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So the 35 knt winds now have a diameter of 921 miles.... Does that officially give Igor the record by itself or because it is post-tropical now does that mean that that the max is the 863 that it had at last advisory and is tied for 1st?
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Quoting oceanblues32:
anything yet on 95L where do we think it may be heading this weekend
it appears to be headed towards the western carribean after that there are some indications but we dont know yet until we have a difinitive center
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
A good Word of Advise for All of my Friends on here that live in the western carribean and Florida keep a very watchful eye on 95L we could and i mean Could potentially have a very powerfull hurricane in the vicinity of the yucatan penninsula, western cuba and Florida But it is still too early to project what will happen but i am seeing a trend with the models , and suposibly there is a trough that will move southeast that may pull it towards the aformentioned areas !!!
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Igor's gone. What a beast that was!
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1066. kwgirl
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
#1016 thanks for posting this:

most people, even here do not realize the potential catastrophe. Many trailer parks,filled with old people, under water.
First of all, all those trailer parks need to evacuate. If you don't then you take whatever comes. I will evacuate my mobile home, even though I will not leave the keys unless it is a 4 or 5 bearing down on us, and maybe not even then. I can understand the reluctance to leave your home, but you can never stay in a mobile for even a Cat 1.
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1065. Seastep
Quoting StormChaser81:
EM services work for keeping government running.

But your on your own after the storm for food and water.

I hate to say this, but we almost ran out of water and food during Charley. I went without power for 9 days.

They were handing out food and water at certain spots, but no gas for 100 miles from my location and gas was almost like gold.

This perspective that Florida is no big deal after a storm, is way off.

The government might run smoothly, but the people on the ground not so much.


Not sure if it is required over there, but here in Broward, the gas stations all now have generators as it was mandated after Wilma. Plenty of gas, just couldn't get it out of the ground.
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anything yet on 95L where do we think it may be heading this weekend
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EM services work for keeping government running.

But your on your own after the storm for food and water.

I hate to say this, but we almost ran out of water and food during Charley. I went without power for 9 days.

They were handing out food and water at certain spots, but no gas for 100 miles from my location and gas was almost like gold.

This perspective that Florida is no big deal after a storm, is way off.

The government might run smoothly, but the people on the ground not so much.
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WOW look at this from Igor


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM
.

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Lisa and 95L. Man!

Good afternoon everyone!
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Seems Igor has claimed at least one life in Newfoundland. A man was washed into the sea after the road he was standing on collapsed.

This link has the story plus some interesting photos of the storm's damage. Seems the deluge of rains has overwhelmed the drainage systems in place!

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2010/09/21/igor-hurricane-nl-921.html
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A good Word of Advise for All of my Friends on here that live in the western carribean and Florida keep a very watchful eye on 95L we could and i mean Could potentially have a very powerfull hurricane in the vicinity of the yucatan penninsula, western cuba and Florida But it is still too early to project what will happen but i am seeing a trend with the models , and suposibly there is a trough that will move southeast that may pull it towards the aformentioned areas !!!
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Thanks Dr M! Great explanation of the ensemble models.
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Environment Canada has re-labeled Igor "post tropical" with 75 knot winds.

WOCN31 CWHX 211800
Post-tropical storm igor information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3.30 PM NDT
Tuesday 21 September 2010.

Dangerous post-tropical storm igor buffeting Eastern Newfoundland
with hurricane-force winds
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1054. FLDART1
Quoting lurkn4yrs:


I agree that our Emergency Management is great and very prepared as well as the government offices. No one wants to go through a hurricane but if I had to, I think there is is no better state than Florida to be in.
I am a little prejudicial towards our EM Agencies...:) I for one can attest to how hard my agency works to protect our citizens from any number of hazards...
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1053. unf97
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Agreed. Happened with Alex and there is no reason it can't happen with 95L once it becomes Matthew.


Absolutely. That would be devastating in regards to flooding for those countries down there most certainly.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we are well a head of 2005 at this time


not even close, not sure where you got that from

13th named storm in 2005 formed on September 1st
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Bigger view and it's still serious surge north and south of Tampa.

I will be under water in a cat1.

But remember its all about landfall area.

South of Tampa Bay pushes water out of the Bay.

North of Tampa Bay will force water into the Bay and not allow for the water to go anywhere, just keeps building it.

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we are well a head of 2005 at this time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Link
HPC day 7.
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Quoting unf97:


Dr. Masters just pointed that out in his broadcast. He stated that if 95L/future Matthew lingers for any prolonged period of time over the Western Caribbean, he could become a very large cyclone and it potentially could tap moisture from the Eastern Pacific and become a very huge problem for many of the Central American countries.



Agreed. Happened with Alex and there is no reason it can't happen with 95L once it becomes Matthew.
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1046. will40
Yes and so did you when you quoted him
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On the issue of ULLs and 95L, there is a TUTT cell (clearly visible on the WV loops and 250mb CIMMS chart) rotating south of Cuba but too far away to affect it at this point; basically, 95L has a clear shot across the Caribbean for the time being and vorticity has increased....Proxmity to land at the moment might be a short term issue but conditions should continue to improve for it as it keeps on moving West as there is plenty of moisture, and, low sheer ahead. IMHO, it needs a little more persistent convection to add to the current ingredients.


Yeap! TUTT is retrograding westward and should never be an issue for 95L.
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Quoting FLDART1:
The State of Florida devotes more resources towards our Emergency management programs than most others. While any system can and will be overwhelmed by a major event, I am proud of what we have accomplished here. I agree that no one can be 100% prepared but our systems are tweaked and improved on an ongoing basis.


I agree that our Emergency Management is great and very prepared as well as the government offices. No one wants to go through a hurricane but if I had to, I think there is is no better state than Florida to be in.
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1043. WxLogic
Quoting unf97:


Dr. Masters just pointed that out in his broadcast. He stated that if 95L/future Matthew lingers for any prolonged period of time over the Western Caribbean, he could become a very large cyclone and it potentially could tap moisture from the Eastern Pacific and become a very huge problem for many of the Central American countries.



Most definitely...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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