Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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Quoting BLee2333:
I don't know about a TS. But it's definately getting it's act together!



That map always shows a closed circulation. ALWAYS.
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Lack of patience in here tonight.
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Evening, everyone.

The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Three TD's in the next week or two? Wow.
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1238. divdog
Quoting IKE:
Thundershowers are breaking out here in the Florida panhandle this afternoon.

92.1 outside my window.
looks like its a headed to defuniak wish we could get one here in Niceville. Dry as a bone.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


70% is not conservative lol





Geez its already at 50%. Whats conservative to you? You have people in this forum wanting to make this thing a storm right now:0
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for get about it be comeing a TD its going right too a TS
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1233. tkeith
Quoting Tazmanian:



the 2nd maps shows 31kt and 1006mb ouch its on it way too skiping TD and going right too a TS
needs more spin...
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Quoting BLee2333:
I don't know about a TS. But it's definately getting it's act together!





the 2nd maps shows 31kt and 1006mb ouch its on it way too skiping TD and going right too a TS
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


70% is not conservative lol





Agreed. 95L is gradually getting better organized but still has a way to go before it becomes a Tropical Depression.
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1230. xcool
60% AT 8PM
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1229. xcool


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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
I don't know about a TS. But it's definately getting it's act together!


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The usually conservative LGEM takes 95L to a high-end category 4 hurricane before making landfall along central America, in which it evidently weakens.



Now this is interesting...


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Igor was no Fish storm
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Quoting Grecojdw:


Its looks good, but I agree generally. But I will go with a conservative 70%.


70% is not conservative lol



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1222. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Hurricane Igor leaving its mark on east and south coasts of province Reader submitted photo
Bay L'Argent
Published on September 21st, 2010
Published on September 21st, 2010
Topics : Environment Canada , Canadian Hurricane Centre , Fire and Emergency Services , Terra Nova , Newfoundland , Southern Newfoundland
Hurricane Igor may be starting to look the other way as it passes the east coast of the island, but the storm is not yet finished hammering the coast.

According to Environment Canada, northerly winds are forecast to gust between 100 and 150 km/h tonight as Igor moves to the northeast.

Post tropical storm Igor is presently located approximately 70 kilometres off the east coast and is forecast to track northeastward across the funk island banks tonight.

Rainfall amounts in excess of 230 millimetres has already fallen over the Burin Peninsula. Gander areas have seen over 100 millimetres of rain with an additional 15 millimetres expected this evening. The Bonavista Peninsula and Terra Nova area has seen over 200 millimetres of rain and an additional 15 to 25 millimetres is expected this evening

The Avalon Peninsula has seen over 130 millimetres today with an additional 10 to 15 millimetres expected this evening.

Local flooding has already been reported over eastern and southern Newfoundland. Extreme caution should be taken as flooding conditions will continue into this evening.

On Random Island, residents of Lower Lance Cove mounted a desperate search for an 80-year-old man who was washed into the sea after a driveway collapsed from underneath him due to heavy water flow. Emergency search and rescue crews, and police, were unable to get to the area due to washed out roads, and unsafe boating and flying conditions.

Igor’s high winds and heavy rain caused hazardous driving conditions, flooded and washed out roads, power outages, flooded basements, downed trees and power lines, damaged roofs and siding, and damaged vehicles.

In addition, six to eight-metre swells are impacting the southern-facing coastlines of Newfoundland. These swells will persist and gradually grow during tonight. Elevated water levels accompanied by high waves and pounding surf will develop along the northeast coast this evening and along the Northeastern Avalon Peninsula overnight.

These elevated waters levels will continue to move southward to affect Placentia Bay by Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Igor’s wallop resulted in the closure of schools, many businesses and many government offices and buildings.

Metrobuses were taken off the road. Flights were delayed or cancelled, ferries tied up.

The City of St. John’s and several other Newfoundland municipalities activated its emergency response plans in light of the storm damage caused by hurricane Igor.

According to the Canadian Hurricane Centre and the province’s Fire and Emergency Services agency, at least 30 communities declared states of emergency and 19 communities are isolated due to washed-out roads.

The Trans-Canada Highway was closed in many areas, as were other roadways and city and town streets.

Officials are calling it the worst storm in the province’s recent history.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting washingtonian115:
Did anyone foreget that the east pacific has a storm two?



and your Point is???
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1219. beell
Quoting P451:


LOL

It's cool. Thanks for the response.


NP.
It is cool. At the house now. New set of chain-yankers!
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Did anyone foreget that the east pacific has a storm two?
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Quoting Levi32:


The funny thing about answering these questions is we always say "things will be clearer in a couple days after the storm has fully developed".....but really, of course the picture gets clearer with each passing day. That's naturally how it works. Therefore, I can only tell you that we should wait until we actually have a storm that has gotten named in the Caribbean before we try to narrow things down too much. We could still be talking about a track east or west of Florida depending on how things work out, and of course Matthew will likely play around with central America first.


That's devastating with all the deaths that have occurred recently from the flooding in the previous storms in C.America.:0
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1215. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
St. John’s activates emergency response plan Submitted by Susan Power
Taken from a hospital room at the Health Sciences, facing CBC and Prince Phillip Drive. Taken 2 p.m.
Published on September 21st, 2010
Published on September 21st, 2010
One of at least 30 communities to do so today in province
Topics : Canadian Hurricane Centre , Fire and Emergency Services , Newfoundland , Bonavista , St. John's
The City of St. John’s has joined several other Newfoundland municipalities and activated its emergency response plan in light of the storm damage caused by hurricane Igor.

According to the Canadian Hurricane Centre and the province’s Fire and Emergency Services agency, at least 30 communities have declared states of emergency and 19 communities are isolated due to washed-out roads.

Officials are calling it the worst storm in the province’s recent history.

A total of 193 mm of rain has fallen in Bonavista so far, 217 mm in St. Lawrence and 150 km/hr winds were recorded today at Sargona Island in Fortune Bay.

City officials say Igor is producing heavy rain and strong winds in the St. John's metro area.

“The City of St. John’s has made preparations to assist in minimizing the effects of this hurricane,” said a statement released by the city this afternoon.

“Crews have cleared storm sewers and culverts of debris and personnel are available should other measures be necessary,” the release states. Citizens should listen for updated forecasts and take appropriate precautionary measures to prevent possible damage to property.”

City officials say residents with concerns or questions related to flooding should call the city’s 24-hour service centre at 311, or visit the city’s website at www.stjohns.ca.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Not so sure 95L will go to 60% at 8pm.

Convection is waning and the circulation isn't too defined at the moment.



Its looks good, but I agree generally. But I will go with a conservative 70%.
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1212. xcool


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1211. Levi32
Quoting Grecojdw:


How long after cyclone genesis do you ascertain that you will be able to narrow down the threat cone?


The funny thing about answering these questions is we always say "things will be clearer in a couple days after the storm has fully developed".....but really, of course the picture gets clearer with each passing day. That's naturally how it works. Therefore, I can only tell you that we should wait until we actually have a storm that has gotten named in the Caribbean before we try to narrow things down too much. We could still be talking about a track east or west of Florida depending on how things work out, and of course Matthew will likely play around with central America first.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting MiamiThreater:


What about C and S Florida, Levi?


Dude, use the thing you have in your head - A brain.

He just said New Orleans and EAST
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1209. xcool
12z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.7N 73.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2010 13.7N 73.7W WEAK
00UTC 24.09.2010 14.6N 75.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2010 14.8N 79.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2010 16.1N 82.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2010 16.8N 84.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2010 17.5N 87.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2010 18.2N 89.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.09.2010 18.7N 91.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2010 18.4N 92.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
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Not so sure 95L will go to 60% at 8pm.

Convection is waning and the circulation isn't too defined at the moment.

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Quoting Levi32:


Absolutely not. I have made it clear that New Orleans eastward is likely under the gun from this, but the western gulf should still keep their eyes peeled in case things change. The central gulf coast and Florida panhandle are right in the threat zone.


How long after cyclone genesis do you ascertain that you will be able to narrow down the threat cone?
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1204. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
Big differences with the GFS and ECMWF on handling the trough. The ECMWF has the mean trough positioned further eastward with the axis along the eastern seaboard. The equatorward extension of the 582dm is greater on the GFS than on the ECMWF. The GFS whose 500mb trough mean is over the Tennessee River Valley. The ECMWF would tend to allow the storm to move northward into the GOM; the GFS would try to pull the storm more to the NE and ENE.


Exactly, which is why we see the GFS stringing the low out east of Florida while the ECMWF brings it north into the eastern gulf.
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1203. beell
P451, If you're still around.

Sorry about the delayed response. But yes, the feature modeled to be in place to the N somewhere of 95L. Guess I picked a bad time to butt in. Somebody yanked my chain here at the salt mine.
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1202. Seastep
Keep in mind that the models should be treated almost as if HH went out there already because they did get data from the research mission. Another one out there now, I think.

Not the same as when there is no recon data at all.

Still a wait and see, but similar to after the "let's wait until HH get out there and the data is fed into the models" already.
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1200. IKE
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Ike do you have a link for that 7 day forecast? I can't seem to find it on the HPC site. Thanks
Link
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1199. Levi32
Quoting Grecojdw:


So would you suggest that the Central Gulf Coast to the Western Panhandle is in the clear? i trust your expertise more than many others on this forum.


Absolutely not. I have made it clear that New Orleans eastward is likely under the gun from this, but the western gulf should still keep their eyes peeled in case things change. The central gulf coast and Florida panhandle are right in the threat zone.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1198. Drakoen
Quoting largeeyes:
Drak---huh?

"equatorward extension of the 582dm is greater on the GFS than on the GFS whose 500mb trough mean is over the Tennessee River Valley."


"equatorward extension of the 582dm is greater on the GFS than on the ECMWF The GFS whose 500mb trough mean is over the Tennessee River Valley."
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Quoting washingtonian115:
How long has Igor been a hurricane?.It seems like forever.


Igor was a hurricane for 10 days...

Major for 5 days...
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Quoting Neapolitan:


I seriously doubt whether Igor will be retired; while he's been in the news, his impact--as you say--has been minimal, and I can't imagine him getting many votes at the 2011 spring meeting. Of course, he could still do a number up north, though he no longer has tropical characteristics...


"Minimal"? Have you been paying any attention to the news coming out of Newfoundland today? Looks like one of the worst hurricanes Canada's ever experienced.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



95L has a good ch of skiping TD and going right too a TS

from the last two



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MOST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THIS SYSTEM...INDICATE
THE CIRCULATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. A
WIND GUST TO 48 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON THE ISLAND OF ST. LUCIA
DURING A HEAVY SQUALL


Oh yea!

I first read that when I got on, but completely forgot.

Thanks Taz
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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