Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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1342. Thaale
Quoting MiamiThreater:
Hello there, people! The latest GFS model run is currently running. Why isn't anyone posting the images? -_-.

Because it's showing 95L hitting CA and then dissipating.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


NOLA Caster?


Honestly i think this will die over the Yucatan.



Yucatan Deathcaster?

Sounds pretty silly, doesn't it?
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1340. xcool
gfs hopes rigthhh nowww
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting muddertracker:
Does anyone remember the name of the tropical storm that skirted the keys a few years back? Someone on the blog posted a link to the bar district and everyone watched the drunk tourists wade through the flood waters? Good times. Good times.



Would that be Hurricane Georges?


Anthony
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I've always been taught that the eastern caribbean is the graveyard of hurricanes.

So far, I will remain with Gaston as taking the top spot for the most threatening south florida storm.

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Still drifting eastward, now with a little more of a southward inclination.

Not sure if I'm believing this run so far, but anything is possible.


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting SevereHurricane:
Unusual 500mb pattern on the 18z GFS with a strong Cut-off low over Oklahoma.



That is supposed to pull whatever 95L becomes up to the N.
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1328. amd
Is there any scientific reason why the GFS keeps on forming a secondary low in the Caribbean just east of 95L.

Also, before 95L could become a problem, this system is going to be interesting to track because 100 miles could separate 95L being torn up by the Central American mountains, to 95L becoming a major problem in the western Caribbean and southern gulf.
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Quoting wxhatt:


LOL, Good Ol' John Hope, not forgotten but definitely missed.


True enough. 95L is too close to SA and combined with the natural inclination of the Eastern Caribbean to discourage development I don't think we will see much from this until it is approaching the area South of Jamaica. Right now the cloud mass is in a jumbled and confused state and the 850 vort is nowhere close to what one would expect from a feature on the verge of becoming a TD.

Good news so far.
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Quoting QMiami:
since a Wilma track hasn't been brought up!!!! this storm was much stronger than expected here in SF - don't want another one



Ouch!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Below is the GFS at 138 hours. 95L is currently just east of Belize.

So Miami being that we r so close to one another me being in dania beach what is your synopsis on 95 L are we safe....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here at 150 hours the cyclone is drifting due eastward. Interesting...






a stall would not be good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting MiamiThreater:


Wrong, yet again, there, Anthony! The consensus for ''NOW'', takes ''it'' into SF.


Ahhh...the consensus spread of all the models range from the Florida Panhandle TO SW Florida, with NOLA/MS/AL as an outlier..

But....whatever. To each his own wishcast.

I never said that it was heading for NOLA, only one of two of the earlier model runs were hinting at a possible hit further west. All I'm doing is speculating on the possibilities, like everyone else here.

And..this early out, no one is either "right" or "wiong", that's only for Matthew to decide for himself. Just prepare and be ready if he decides to come your way.

Easy to be smug about things this early in the game...but the proof will be in the pudding soon. Wishcasting, doomcasting...all that will fade away when Big Matt makes his final move.


Anthony
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Unusual 500mb pattern on the 18z GFS with a strong Cut-off low over Oklahoma.

Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
1319. xcool
MiamiHurricane two storms.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1318. scott39
Quoting IKE:
This storm could put this blog over the edge. Every inch of Florida will be hit by this one, whether it comes within 500 miles of Florida or not.

Might as well sit back and watch.

I was talking to an Eskimo
Said he was hoping for a fall of snow
When up popped a sea lion ready to go...Link
Dont forget every square inch of Al! Not near as many inches as FL. LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6860
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon folks

95L remains disorganized at this time and is unlikely to become a TD before 75 W given its current rate of organization. Looks like John Hope still rules.


Him and Nash Roberts...long live the magic marker!
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Here at 150 hours the cyclone is drifting due eastward. Interesting...


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1315. QMiami
since a Wilma track hasn't been brought up!!!! this storm was much stronger than expected here in SF - don't want another one

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Wow. We here in the northeast were quite lucky Igor stayed far away.
What a monster.
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1313. wxhatt
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon folks

95L remains disorganized at this time and is unlikely to become a TD before 75 W given its current rate of organization. Looks like John Hope still rules.


LOL, Good Ol' John Hope, not forgotten but definitely missed.
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1311. wxhatt
NGP
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Below is the GFS at 138 hours. 95L is currently just east of Belize.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1309. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Evening everyone

Keeping a weary eye on 95L ,my local met just talked about it and even showed the models. He's very conservative and he wants everyone to pay attention to it.
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Good afternoon folks

95L remains disorganized at this time and is unlikely to become a TD before 75 W given its current rate of organization. Looks like John Hope still rules.
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Got slammed in 04 and 05.

Also the first decade of this century has been statistically hyper active for South Florida.
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1305. wxhatt
Quoting scott39:
Wait till it gets in the Western Carribean!


True, the NGP has it looking like a strong tropical storm in the western carribean.
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Does anyone remember the name of the tropical storm that skirted the keys a few years back? Someone on the blog posted a link to the bar district and everyone watched the drunk tourists wade through the flood waters? Good times. Good times.
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Good thing we don't name hurricanes as "King" anymore.

That would go well in a hollywood movie. George Clooney did well in The Perfect Storm.
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Big storm?

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1297. scott39
Quoting wxhatt:
Good thing 95L doesn't look like it will be developing all that fast; an elongated area of low pressure at best.



Wait till it gets in the Western Carribean!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6860
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Judging by Historcal Anaylsis.. South Florida is Overdue for a Hurricane Hit.



Think so? For the last 6 years, South Florida has gotten its fair share of storms. If anything its time to take a nap.
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1294. wxhatt
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Judging by Historcal Anaylsis.. South Florida is Overdue for a Hurricane Hit.



I believe Tampa is well over due for a direct hit...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.