Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1492 - 1442

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

1492. kmanislander
11:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
A local NOLA met says 95L could easily die out over Central America and be done with. Any supporters of that view here?
P.S. I AM NOT a central America Caster.


That is one scenario. In fact the GFS takes 95L into Nicaragua as a cyclone then ejects it off the N coast of Honduras in a weakened state after which it takes several days reorganizing
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1491. Tazmanian
11:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
with the L storm are new name storm how many stormss dos that make in SEP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1490. LADobeLady
11:26 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
A local NOLA met says 95L could easily die out over Central America and be done with. Any supporters of that view here?
P.S. I AM NOT a central America Caster.


Which met?
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
1486. Tazmanian
11:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
60% too 80% next two we follow the nhc they may no more then what we do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1484. Txwxchaser
11:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Evening everyone....been outta pocket all day..just trying to catch up. Scary reading!!
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 312
1483. kmanislander
11:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting Minnemike:
i've wondered if any atmospheric inhibitors could set in place if SST's get high enough. not suggesting that here, but the notion seems pertinent as a shot in the dark. thoughts?


I looked at the shear forecast thru Friday and that should not be an issue. Moisture content in the atmosphere is also not an inhibitor. The high TCHP would not set off any upper level atmospheric issue as a negative either so the only thing I see that might hold 95L from really intensifying is prolonged time over land or close proximity to the N coast of Honduras.

It would take a very unusual combination of adverse conditions to prevent a cyclone over that TCHP from becoming a very powerful and dangerous hurricane. Of course, high TCHP will not necessarily help a disorganized system to become a TD but once a closed low is established the TCHP would feed the system very quickly.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1482. LADobeLady
11:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
there is no need to worry. hurricanes usually effect only a tiny area really badly. therefore any given individual's chances of this storm being bad for them are quite small. if there even IS a storm as it will possibly die in central america.

even hurricane andrew didn't effect 95% of more of south florida that badly, as indicated by Carl Hiassen's anniversarry article about it 10 years later (hilarious). good thoughts, people!


I want what this person is having...please
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
1481. Tazmanian
11:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

???????????????????




like what is he talking about 08 lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1478. WeatherNerdPR
11:22 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yep...it's a far cry from the rugged terrain of Honduras where Matthew will hopefully park & then die off. But I just don't see that happening unfortunately.

I wouldn't hope for another Mitch.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1476. CybrTeddy
11:22 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
The genesis of 95L will be very similar to that of what we just saw with 92L that became Karl.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24262
1474. viman
11:21 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
there is no need to worry. hurricanes usually effect only a tiny area really badly. therefore any given individual's chances of this storm being bad for them are quite small. if there even IS a storm as it will possibly die in central america.

even hurricane andrew didn't effect 95% of more of south florida that badly, as indicated by Carl Hiassen's anniversarry article about it 10 years later (hilarious). good thoughts, people!


????
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 382
1472. Hoff511
11:21 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I downcast for a reason....95L is a perfect example of why.

This has got trouble written all over it for a lot of people.


Ike- I always follow your lead knowing that you don't get excited easily. You have now made me worry. Thanks. :)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
1471. CosmicEvents
11:21 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting breald:


agree. How are you doing this evening?
Mild to moderate panic with decreased appetite. Called up Walgreen's for a re-fill. And you?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5621
1469. txjac
11:20 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Not sure if all have this link, I found it useful when Ike came through Texas.

You can enter in yout coordinates and this will give you an approxiamate as to how close a system will pass to you

http://www.stormcarib.com/closest.cgi
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2547
1468. kmanislander
11:19 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

making sure agreed as well it will to do so at 75w


Not before 75W IMO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1467. WeatherNerdPR
11:19 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Though Igor didn't cause much damage in Bermuda, Newfoundland got hit pretty hard according to Wikipedia. "Severe Flooding"
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1466. breald
11:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I agree as well. It made sense from start to finish to me.
I think we just had an outlier that just needs to re-read it.


agree. How are you doing this evening?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
1465. weatherwart
11:17 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Still, enough of an impetus to trim off those dead branches on my land and do some burning this week. Might as well not supply the missles.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
1463. Minnemike
11:16 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


Yeah, right on top of this. I wonder why the intensity forecasts are so low with the models showing this system just sitting and spinning over historically high TCHP ?. It will be interesting to see how SHIPS responds to a stall scenario on this area.

i've wondered if any atmospheric inhibitors could set in place if SST's get high enough. not suggesting that here, but the notion seems pertinent as a shot in the dark. thoughts?
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
1462. WeatherNerdPR
11:16 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting viman:
Dont know if this was mentioned or caught before but either someone needs more coffee or a break...

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

AFTER A SHORT-LIVED DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...A BURST
OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE
TIGHTENED UP AND BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...SUGGESTING THAT
THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/2. LISA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN
A NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION...PROBABLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. NOW THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO
BE MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...HOPEFULLY THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS
SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. LISA IS EXPECTED REMAIN IN
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LISA...WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE
CYCLONE ON A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY DIVERGENT BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD HWRF
AND THE WESTWARD GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AFTER 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR...JULIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF
20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.

lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1461. CosmicEvents
11:16 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting breald:


Yes he is.
I agree as well. With P451's post. It made sense from start to finish to me.
I think we just had an outlier that just needs to re-read it.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5621
1460. extreme236
11:15 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Discount the BAM Model and a Few Wacky Models and youll see most of them take it into the GOM.



This Looks like a Problem for South,Central and North Florida ....


It is hard to pinpoint that this is solely a Florida threat at this point. Were talking more than a week away probably.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1459. 1992Andrew
11:15 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
As I watch The Weather Channel coverage of Hurricane Irene through youtube, I am reminded on just how a lack of barrier to intensification is the Florida peninsula. Irene actually intensified over Florida. Same with Fay.
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
1457. kmanislander
11:15 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

agreed what lol


Agreed not an immediate threat to develop
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1456. WeatherNerdPR
11:14 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:
Hey guys, I just wrote a new blog entry on Lisa and 95L. Have a look!

:)
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1454. KoritheMan
11:14 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
New blog entry.

Later guys. Gotta run. Gonna watch my little brother play baseball. :)

See you guys later!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20880
1453. ShenValleyFlyFish
11:14 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I downcast for a reason....95L is a perfect example of why.

This has got trouble written all over it for a lot of people.
Don't doubt you for a moment. Just tweaking your nose.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting Tazmanian:
round 1


90L bust


91L bust


92L bust

93L be comes Alex

94L bust

95L bust

96L be come TD 2

97L be comes BONNIE

98L bust

99L bust


round 2



90L bust

91L be comes .COLIN

92L bust

93L bust

94L be comes TD 5

95L be comes Danielle

96L be comes Earl

97L be comes FIONA

98L be comes Gaston

99L bust


round 3


90L be comes hermine

91L be comes IGOR

92L be comes .KARL


93L be comes JULIA

94L be comes LISA


95L ????



not bad for the 3rd round
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1447. breald
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


P451's post is 100% accurate and well-reasoned out.


Yes he is.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting viman:
Dont know if this was mentioned or caught before but either someone needs more coffee or a break...

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

AFTER A SHORT-LIVED DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...A BURST
OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE
TIGHTENED UP AND BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...SUGGESTING THAT
THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/2. LISA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN
A NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION...PROBABLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. NOW THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO
BE MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...HOPEFULLY THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS
SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. LISA IS EXPECTED REMAIN IN
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LISA...WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE
CYCLONE ON A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY DIVERGENT BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD HWRF
AND THE WESTWARD GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AFTER 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR...JULIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF
20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.



we seen it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Fortunately 95L is not an immediate threat to develop. Nothing going on by way of surface convergence right now.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1442. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I downcast for a reason....95L is a perfect example of why.

This has got trouble written all over it for a lot of people.
The force is with you Ike. Do not flinch!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1492 - 1442

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.