Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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2842. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeah could be a repeat...you never know. Let's hope not. Those shear & TCHP maps in the GOM are frightening.
I hope High wind Shear picks up and Dry air helps us out. Maybe a ULL will come in and save the day.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
Quoting KeysieLife:
GOOD MORNING VIET...ummm...I mean WU BLOG! Hope everyone's got their "where's it gonna go" caps on today! =)


And many still in the 'when's it gonna get going' phase. Once it does, it may not take long to ramp up. Wow. Interesting scenario.
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HH's will probably go out today since it may not take long for this one to spin up and I think this is a special research year for cyclogenesis...besides, obviously there are a lot of populated areas around this!
Link
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lisa is the only cv storm i've ever seen go back east.
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2832. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Good info. Not ready to rule out anything JUST yet...including NOLA
The good news about all these years with the exception of 2005. Is that the TCs were realitively weak at landfall. Although with all the energy in the Carribean and GOM, 2010 may play out like 2005 :(
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2829. HCW
models are really slowing this one down

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Link
This is why FL should be concerned after October 1st notice the change in the tracks after September.
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Hurricane Hunters scheduled to go out later today if it doesn't get canceled.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- CARRIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0600-1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
C. 22/1700Z C. 23/0400Z
D. 12.5N 68.5W D. 12.6N 71.0W
E. 22/1730-2300Z E. 23/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT
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2801. hahaha!

AYBABTU

lmao
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really? interesting you say that because if the trough goes slower that means a more westward movement right?

I am figuring that is why the models shifted a bit westward hitting Mexico. Last night almost all the models unanimously had Matthew going right in between the northeast Yucatan and western cuba.

am i not seeing something correct?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
Link radar from netherland antilles
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Good morning, all. It seems the Gulf area (including Florida peninsula) could get pretty wet next week.


as my Mom would say "we sure could use some rain." Of course, it could rain every day for a month and she's say that when she was in a canoe paddling down the street. It's her standard response to rain.
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Quoting P451:
You never trust anything past 120 hours for cyclogenesis. You rarely put much faith into the 72-120 range either.

We've had many major hurricanes predicted by the GFS and ECMWF this season even dating back to early June only to see it pan out twice:

Earl was well modeled from long range and did indeed form and did so in pretty much the general location the models hinted at as far back as 240 hours.

Igor was a second system that many models hinted at from long range.

No other system was properly modeled from long range.

Out of about 30 odd storms predicted long range (and they were always depicted as major hurricanes) only 2 came to be.

Maybe Matthew becomes the Third. We have to wait and see on that.

Yet, given the possibility of Matthew - I would most definitely discount the GFS' solution of multiple east coast hits because Matthew will use up a lot of energy and change the atmosphere in his wake if he decides to cross Florida and come up the coast.

So until Matthew is "out of the way" I would put very little faith in models depicting development on his heels be it a copycat system or one affecting the east coast.



Well, hello. You have a new take. May a novice ask a question? When you say "change the atmosphere in his wake," what do mean exactly? I've seen how Igor has left cold water and dry sinking air in his wake, so something like that?
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Quoting srada:


LOL..Im learning too..


lol! It's good to know I'm not the only one! :-)
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Quoting MiamiThreater:
Good morning, all! So, which part of FL appears to be the most threatened part for the storm come next week?



My guess would be from Tampa to points south. But its only a guess.
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Good morning, all. It seems the Gulf area (including Florida peninsula) could get pretty wet next week.
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2810. srada
Quoting Msuknotmet:


Yes but Matthew is not a CV storm and conditions are different in the GOM. Isn't it the case that environmental conditions change when a major hurricane passes through? That was my limited understanding especially after reading water temps cooling in Igors wake.

I'm just learning here....but correct me if I'm wrong.


LOL..Im learning too..
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2808. scott39
Here is a 10 year history from the Archives. These are TCs to make US landfalls once inside the GOM forming in mid/late September thru mid/Late Oct. 2009-- N Gulf Coast--Ida 11/4/--11/10 TS/Landfall . 2008/None 2007/None 2006/None 2005-- N Gulf Coast, Rita 9/18--9/26 Cat3/Landfall 2005--West Coast of Fl, Wilma 10/15--10/26 Cat3 Landfall 2004-- N Gulf Coast, Matthew 10/8--10/11 TS/Landfall 2003/None 2002-- N Gulf Coast, Isidore 9/14--9/27 TS/landfall N Gulf Coast Lili 9/21--10/4 Cat1 landfall 2001/None 2000--N Gulf Coast Helene 9/15--9/25 TS/Lanfall. Do not count out New Orleans with these kind of stats!!
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2806. tkeith
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center

I can't argue with that....
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Tracking #Igor, #Lisa, and a wave in the East Caribbean (95L). NEWS
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Lisa and The Caribbean Wave
Posted: 07:26 AM 22 September 2010 | 0 Comments | Add Comment
Tropical Storm Lisa is meandering in the Eastern Atlantic and probably will be around for quite a while, odds keep it out to sea the entire time.

The last advisory on Igor was issued Yesterday and is no longer being tracked. Igor was fairly strong in Newfoundland.

The wave in the eastern Caribbean (95L) continues to be the one to watch into next week. Odds favor the system getting close or moving into Nicaragua/Honduras (may or may not be a full storm by then) and possibly curving northward potentially putting Central and Eastern Gulf coasts at risk.

Likelihood of it forming into a hurricane is fairly high, it's questionable if it can do that before Honduras/Nicaragua though, or after. Depends on the next few days. If it forms, the most likely time it would form is Friday or Saturday. If things persist more, it could be sooner than that.



The huge uncertainty right now is if and when a turn to the north happens before it gets into the heart of Central America or the Yucatan. If it does not, the risk to the Gulf increase, if it does, then it will mean tremendous amounts of rainfall for Central America.

Those in Honduras and Nicaragua will want to keep a close watch on the system, and those in the Yucatan, and Central Eastern Gulf will want to watch for trends to see what eventually occurs with this.

As the wave has not yet developed into a tropical system, things can change wildly, and models (Especially intensity models) are not all that reliable until it does. Even when it does you have to see the trends to find any model biases that may exist.

Long range discussion can be found in the Forecast Lounge.

95L Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info


Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Lisa Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lisa
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lisa
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lisa -- RAMMB Info


Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)


Latest Meteorologist Blog - See More Blogs...
Ed Dunham
A New Record
Posted: 04:17 PM 15 September 2010
I'm surprised that this was not mentioned by NHC:

The top 5 hurricanes to reach Category IV intensity in the far eastern Atlantic at the easternmost longitude:

5. 9/23/88 Hurricane Helene Cat IV at 14.1N 44.9W
4. 9/9/03 Hurricane Isabel Cat IV at 18.2N 44.1W
3. 9/1/95 Hurricane Luis Cat IV at 16.2N 43.6W
2. 9/7/57 Hurricane Carrie Cat IV at 17.0N 42.0W

1. 9/15/10 Hurricane Julia Cat IV at 17.3N 31.8W

Since 2 through 5 are really closer to central Atlantic locations, Julia is really the only hurricane to hit Cat IV in the far east Atlantic. I browsed through the hurricane track data rather quickly so its possible that I may have missed one. Julia didn't just beat the previous record, she clobbered it by 585NM.
ED
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Recent NewsSep.22
Lisa and The Caribbean Wave
Sep.20 - 10 comments
Lisa in East Atlantic, Area in East Caribbean
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Igor and Julia Category 4 and More
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GOOD MORNING VIET...ummm...I mean WU BLOG! Hope everyone's got their "where's it gonna go" caps on today! =)
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Quoting goldenpixie1:


Good morning! And thank you for the daily dose of gloom and doom.



That guy is a booger-eating fool. No one should ever respond to his posts.
Clarity edit. The insult is directed at apocalypse, not Goldenpixie.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
Good morning everyone. Reviewing the comments, I can't tell. Are we doom?

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It looks like the future 95L, the future "Matthew", is going to be a fairly large storm on some of the models. Also, the CMC has 95L on the tip of the Yucatan ready to go into the gulf in about six days.
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Quoting srada:


I dont think you can use that synoposis especially with the storms we had this year..look at Igor and Julia..Igor Cat 5 and Julia was a Cat 4..right behind each other


Yes but Matthew is not a CV storm and conditions are different in the GOM. Isn't it the case that environmental conditions change when a major hurricane passes through? That was my limited understanding especially after reading water temps cooling in Igors wake.

I'm just learning here....but correct me if I'm wrong.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 109
Quoting IKE:


Where to?

Pensacola...10 hrs away from me! Just got hired with the FD up there
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I was looking at that earlier and wondering the same thing. Looks pretty good although it is pretty close to land.


Who knows, it looks like it has some spin now to on the mimic tpw product. But yeah it's close to land and may get sucked back northeast over Central America.

Of course 95L is pretty close to land too (at least at the moment)...
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2795. IKE
Quoting flwthrfan:


Moving my son up there this weekend...


Where to? Nice area up here.
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Good point take it while you can get it.
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2793. pottery
Quoting gordydunnot:
Pottery not so fast look to your east 10n 50w looks a little damp.

I have that area on 'ignore' right now LOL.
It's too nice a Morning to look beyond nine oclock....
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Quoting osuwxguynew:
Good Morning Everyone!

I'm just a little bit curious. How in the WORLD is this not an invest in the Eastern Pacific????
EPAC AVN Satellite
I was looking at that earlier and wondering the same thing. Looks pretty good although it is pretty close to land.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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