Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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Quoting Joanie38:
Ummmm...hello all....hope I didnt come in at a bad time....and I sure hope in the heck that thing down in the Carribean..doesnt come to SWLA!!!!!
so far you are in good shape , we are concerned about the northwest carribean, cuba and florida
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My perfect kind of hurricane...Lots of wind, no rain.

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1589. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
A 998mb low near the western tip of Cuba on the ECMWF ensemble mean indicates pretty good agreement amongst the ensemble members on the idea that there will be a potent tropical system in that area in 8 days.

Levi when the trough breaks the high over the N Gulf Coast and Fl., where does 95L gravitate to?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6755
Ummmm...hello all....hope I didnt come in at a bad time....and I sure hope in the heck that thing down in the Carribean..doesnt come to SWLA!!!!!
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Quoting doorman79:


Ok, you covered east and west of NOLA. What if I am in NOLA? Is that like "who's on third"?


Well you have to be one one side.

But you cant be on either side at the same time.
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1585. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Not too mention possibility of shooting the gap between the Yucatan & Cuba...scary stuff.
Yes..That would worry many people..
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Quoting scott39:
I wonder if 95L will wane at night like the other ones did in that part of the Carribean?


Probably will. We will wake up in the morning and it will be more consolidated. It’s been the trend so far for these Caribbean systems. Wax and wane.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good :)



lol


Ok, you covered east and west of NOLA. What if I am in NOLA? Is that like "who's on third"?
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Quoting btwntx08:

???????????????????
just ignore the troll
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Quoting will40:


im afraid that wont happen in here. The ones feeding them will never learn
I've begun to wonder if they don't want to adopt them as pets.
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Yup, looks like we'll have another named storm coming behind Lisa.

It would be amazing to see 95L form into Matthew, then the wave behind Lisa become whatever the "N" storm is. That would make 8 named storms in September if timing was right, that would set a record.

This year is really amazing, you know that?

We had a Category 2 Hurricane with a pressure of 946.

We had Igor become the largest hurricane ever.

Julia went through Rapid Intensification when it was basically impossible.

Well on our way to another named storm like I said above...



And no, thats not Lisa's circulation either.
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1576. Ryuujin
Quoting IKE:
144 hour 18Z NOGAPS...Link

Looped....not good....


Jesus, when IKE gets serious you know it's not good.
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1575. will40
Quoting pilotguy1:


Guys, Guys, if you would just put these dolts on ignore and never mention them, they might just go away after while. You give them life by commenting on them.


im afraid that wont happen in here. The ones feeding them will never learn
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1574. JLPR2

This is interesting, so no one knows where Lisa will go? XD
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1573. Levi32
A 998mb low near the western tip of Cuba on the ECMWF ensemble mean indicates pretty good agreement amongst the ensemble members on the idea that there will be a potent tropical system in that area in 8 days.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
LMAO!

I didn't even look at the date the LGEM is predicting it to become a Category 4.

Its not becoming that strong that fast...Is it?
No.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21159
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
LMAO!

I didn't even look at the date the LGEM is predicting it to become a Category 4.

Its not becoming that strong that fast...Is it?



i would not be too sure do you re call the 2 storms back in 2007????????
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
1567. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
#0001
NNNN
SUBJ: HURRICANE IGOR (11L) WARNING NR 055

REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 49.3N 51.6W. 12FT SEAS 480NM NE,
900NM SE, 995NM SW, 380NM NW.
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
1110090700 128N 189W 25
1110090706 132N 195W 25
1110090712 137N 201W 25
1110090718 140N 211W 25
1110090800 140N 219W 25
1110090806 139N 226W 30
1110090812 138N 233W 40
1110090818 138N 237W 40
1110090900 138N 242W 35
1110090906 138N 243W 35
1110090912 142N 245W 35
1110090918 149N 263W 35
1110091000 153N 274W 30
1110091006 159N 287W 30
1110091012 163N 304W 35
1110091018 166N 325W 40
1110091100 169N 348W 50
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1110091106 171N 370W 60
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1110091112 173N 387W 60
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1110091806 248N 625W 95
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1110091806 248N 625W 95
1110091812 256N 632W 95
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1110091900 276N 646W 85
1110091900 276N 646W 85
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1110091906 284N 652W 75
1110091906 284N 652W 75
1110091906 284N 652W 75
1110091912 296N 656W 75
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1110091912 296N 656W 75
1110091918 308N 659W 70
1110091918 308N 659W 70
1110091918 308N 659W 70
1110092000 319N 657W 65
1110092000 319N 657W 65
1110092000 319N 657W 65
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1110092018 372N 626W 65
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1110092100 390N 604W 65
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1110092100 390N 604W 65
1110092106 413N 568W 65
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1110092106 413N 568W 65
1110092112 448N 538W 65
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1110092112 448N 538W 65
1110092118 480N 522W 70
1110092118 480N 522W 70
1110092118 480N 522W 70
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Quoting scott39:
That will feel like years in blog days.
and be a nightmare to the models and forecasters.
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1565. mbjjm
The models have shifted east and 95L could stay off shore Central America until It gets to the Yucatan/Western Cuba area.

Models
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Quoting Seastep:


Makes complete, and accurate, sense.


Good :)

Quoting Joanie38:


Good evening everyone....

ROFLMAO!!! THAT WAS funny! I laughed after reading that!!!!! LOL!!!


lol
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1563. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
LMAO!

I didn't even look at the date the LGEM is predicting it to become a Category 4.

Its not becoming that strong that fast...Is it?
Who Knows?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6755
Quote of the Day remembered.

Do not argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.
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Quoting kmanislander:
The 18Z GFS keeps 95L in the Gulf of Honduras from hr 126 to hr 180 meandering around.
if I remember right, Wilma meandered and festered down there for a good time period before being shunted off to the NE.
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LMAO!

I didn't even look at the date the LGEM is predicting it to become a Category 4.

Its not becoming that strong that fast...Is it?
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3 days out



6 days out

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1556. scott39
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I wonder if 95L will wane at night like the other ones did in that part of the Carribean?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6755
1554. Seastep
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm going to say that people east of New Orleans need to watch this closely, and the areas west of that do too, except not closely.

So residents east of NO should monitor this closely, and areas west should monitor this closely without monitoring it closely.

Understand?


Makes complete, and accurate, sense.
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1553. mbjjm
95L may very well be a tropical depression this time tommorrow
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Quoting xcool:


ONCE AGAIN
,

The LGEM likely has the best handle on this thing. Now thats a reliable forecast!
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You guys can certainly do what you want, of course...but why oh why do some of you constantly quote and re-quote and re-re-quote the most trollish of comments from the most trollish of people? For about the thousandth time, these troglodytes feed off of attention however negative it might be; quoting them gives them sustenance. It's a well-established fact in mental health circles that most internet trolls are emotionally-needy, self-loathing individuals with few friends or prospects for a good future.

Ignore them. Treat them as you do a wad of freshly-chewed gum on the sidewalk: step around it and keep going...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm going to say that people east of New Orleans need to watch this closely, and the areas west of that do too, except not closely.

So residents east of NO should monitor this closely, and areas west should monitor this closely without monitoring it closely.

Understand?


Good evening everyone....

ROFLMAO!!! THAT WAS funny! I laughed after reading that!!!!! LOL!!!
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
1546. bassis
Quoting KoritheMan:
Hey guys, I just wrote a new blog entry on Lisa and 95L. Have a look!


Thanks, great update
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1545. JLPR2
I'm confused, isn't this the idea GFS had in mind from almost the start?
Developing 95L sending it to Central America and then reemerging on the Western Caribbean, mixing up with a through or something and then develop the hurricane that would move N-NE? No?

Also, this wave's circulation is quietly becoming better organized.
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1544. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:
Out for dinner but will check in later.
Do you ever cook? LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6755
There is a lot of talk about 95L hitting FL. I've also read that 95L could die out over Central America.

That's a lot of area coverage of where it could hit. The storm hasn't been named yet. Give it two days and a better track will develop or at the very least those with knowledge on here will be able to track it better.

But for now.... it could hit any of those areas and then I give it a 20% chance of crossing the Atlantic and hitting my house in London!

Gentleman, place your bets!


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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