Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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Quoting pilotguy1:


Come on admin................


Whats the problem here? He didn't finish his post but who cares we all got the gist of it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
1791. will40
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and your the biggest here



+++++
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Quoting Levi32:
Hmm now....look at the 500mb pattern when Isbell in 1964 was sitting southwest of Florida, and compare to the GFS Day 7 forecast. The similarities are interesting...not perfect, but interesting.

October 14th, 1964:



GFS Day 7 forecast:


Wow it does look quite similar.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Nope. Has to be as is. I mean seriously, what kinda name is 'Isbell'?


LOL! I named my daughter Isabel. never heard of a Isbell
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Come on admin................



dont i wish lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting weatherguy03:
Getting a chance to look at some of today's models. Some subtle difference in the models. Looks like the 12Z GFS is less progressive then last nights 0Z. Cut Off Low hangs back alittle bit, which if this continues could lead to a big slow down in our system in the Western Caribbean. It looks like it will slow down anyway as it searches for somewhere to go. Steering current will get weak anyway as Matthew decides to get kicked North or just die over Central America. Euro a bit more progressive with trough and kicks Matthew quicker North. Canadian is almost like the GFS with a less progressive pattern. So, basically it got alittle more cloudier today, but that is to be expected this far out in the forecast period.


Thank you Rob. I follow your forecasts also.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10975
Good evening again. 95L looks to be on a track near 275 degrees and now approaching 12.7 N and 65.5 W based upon this loop

This is much too close to the North coast of SA
for development to occur in the short term. With the forward speed at 15 MPH it will make good progress into a more favourable environment in about 24 to 36 hours.
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1785. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
You do a very good job Levi and I look forward to your posts. But I%u2019m sorry, I can%u2019t adopt you.


That's okay Geoff. But this is certainly news to me....you're a mom now? Lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Someone earlier wondered whether Igor, with his high ACE and all, would be retired. At the time, I answered that I didn't think that was likely, since impacts seemed low. But after reading about some of the damage yesterday and today, I'm thinking that the Meteorological Service of Canada might, for the second time (the first being with 2003's Hurricane Juan) request retirement. I guess we'll know more with tomorrow's news, of course...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Nope. Has to be as is. I mean seriously, what kinda name is 'Isbell'?


What happened to your shirt? It fell off again.

Isbell
English: from the female personal name Isabel(l)(a). This originated as a variant of Elizabeth, a name which owed its popularity in medieval Europe to the fact that it was borne by John the Baptist’s mother. The original form of the name was Hebrew Elisheva ‘my God (is my) oath’; it appears thus in Exodus 6:23 as the name of Aaron’s wife. By New Testament times the second element had been altered to Hebrew shabat ‘rest’, ‘Sabbath’. The form Isabella originated in Spain, the initial syllable being detached because of its resemblance to the definite article el, and the final one being assimilated to the characteristic Spanish feminine ending -ella. The name in this form was introduced to France in the 13th century, being borne by a sister of St. Louis who lived as a nun after declining marriage with the Holy Roman Emperor. Thence it was taken to England, where it achieved considerable popularity as an independent personal name alongside its doublet Elizabeth.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Thanks, dude. But I should have realized that by the broken English " You been reported". (how about "you've")

Maybe they should use " I'm telling, mommy" instead?

great analysis & response pertaining to the "sophomoric" behaviour of some of the juvenile (I do not mean age..) blog members- excellent! please do not be intimidated by the 'reported'phrase.
Hopefully the focus can stay on the Tropics!(in lieu of wasting time & energy otherwise)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Nope. Has to be as is. I mean seriously, what kinda name is 'Isbell'?
Well how many Fay's do you know or Beryls, Flossie, or Humbierto's it may be a different nationality or maybe a different era, btw I despise all the +1 posts at least have some statement for why you agree, or something new to say. maybe they could add a rate this post function
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Quoting pilotguy1:

I would adopt him, but then I would have to move to Fairbanks and he would have to support me.


Very funny!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10975
Getting a chance to look at some of today's models. Some subtle difference in the models. Looks like the 12Z GFS is less progressive then last nights 0Z. Cut Off Low hangs back alittle bit, which if this continues could lead to a big slow down in our system in the Western Caribbean. It looks like it will slow down anyway as it searches for somewhere to go. Steering current will get weak anyway as Matthew decides to get kicked North or just die over Central America. Euro a bit more progressive with trough and kicks Matthew quicker North. Canadian is almost like the GFS with a less progressive pattern. So, basically it got alittle more cloudier today, but that is to be expected this far out in the forecast period.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1775. Levi32
Hmm now....look at the 500mb pattern when Isbell in 1964 was sitting southwest of Florida, and compare to the GFS Day 7 forecast. The similarities are interesting...not perfect, but interesting.

October 14th, 1964:



GFS Day 7 forecast:


Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting ironbark:
Does anyone think the upper Texas coast will get hit by a hurricane this year?



yes there is a ch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting BenBIogger:


Should be interesting to see whether or not 95L stalls in the NW Caribbean. This one will be a headache to track once it reaches the western Caribbean.


I 2nd that!!!!
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1772. WXTXN
Good point... maybe thats why they retired her.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Has anyone here actually known a woman named 'Isbell'?

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Does anyone think the upper Texas coast will get hit by a hurricane this year?
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Quoting Levi32:


The main FIM model takes it through the straights into the gulf and you can see the track overlayed here. It's actually interesting because it shows enough blocking to turn it west to the north of the Yucatan at the end of the run.



Should be interesting to see whether or not 95L stalls in the NW Caribbean. This one will be a headache to track once it reaches the western Caribbean.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Has anyone here actually known a woman named 'Isbell'?


Can I buy a vowel?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
You do a very good job Levi and I look forward to your posts. But I’m sorry, I can’t adopt you.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10975
Lisa maintains its intensity.

AL, 14, 2010092200, , BEST, 0, 182N, 313W, 40, 1002, TS,


Same goes for 95L.

AL, 95, 2010092200, , BEST, 0, 123N, 652W, 25, 1009, DB,
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1762. JLPR2
Quoting extreme236:


It's pointless though, they really aren't going to stop trolling and nothing with change if you post that you're reporting them.


Amen! :D you never see me saying reported or poof, there is just no use saying it, just do it. XD

Also does this wave has any chance at development? It has a nice circulation yet convectionwise it looks rather unimpressive, any thoughts?
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1760. WXTXN
    
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Y'all are downright off your rockers. Learn to laugh, ignore and move on.
The next couple of days will be very interesting when it comes to Hurricane Season 2010.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
Quoting btwntx08:
on jfv just - and ! him and move on i do that on him not saying nada but to some ppl that i want to then i want too


It's pointless though, they really aren't going to stop trolling and nothing with change if you post that you're reporting them.
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Quoting txag91met:


Isidore was a very strong hurricane, but lost most of its punch over the Yucatan, as the inner core collapsed --- If I recall.

That is correct. He was originally forecast to follow a track towards Texas, but with the combination of a ballooning ridge and land interaction, he got forced due south into the Yucatan (only one of two hurricanes to do so, and the only major), where his core collapsed over land.
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Let's not get ahead of ourseles preaching about another Wilma(And I don't think we'll see another one of her for quite a while).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Levi, do you think the synopsis so far for this thing in the carribean has a chance to move further west???
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


What are your thoughts on 95L?

I think it will take a Wilma track.


Pretty early right now to say for sure, but it's likely this will develop within the next couple days. Not too impressive right now, but I attribute some of that to dmin.
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1750. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:
Vorticity with 95L is improving.

all ahead full 285 degrees
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1743. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Oh, right. Let's review important hurricanes that hit peninsular FL after October 1 since 1900:

1906: My favorite track of the bunch:




1909:



1910: The Jeanne for the Keys





1921 Tampa Bay



1935 "Yankee Hurricane"



1941:



1944:



1947:



1948:



1950 Hurricane King:



1964 Hurricane Isbell:



1999 Hurricane Irene:



Can't forget Hurricane Wilma



Yes, there were a lot fewer important October hurricanes in the past 50 years. But that doesn't mean the pattern can't switch back. All of these were Cat 2 or stronger at landfall, except Irene, which I included due to catastrophic flooding and the 1947 hurricane for the same reason.


I forgot about Isabell....in one of our analog years (1964) too. I shall have to check that one out.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.