Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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Quoting Want2learn:
Kenneth Feinberg who runs Bp Claims made the statement to Usa Today.


Link?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Wow Models Shifted Right Now take it Straight over the Florida Peninsula.. Wow
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578
Quoting blsealevel:


Agree, and we all know that most weaker storms seems to drift more w before the curve N.
is that right? at least in that area.


Generally speaking yes but the real driver behind the due West track is this set up over the CONUS

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Quoting txjac:
Any other mothers on here want to adopt Levi? ...lol
I thought he had about 6 mothers already.... not to mention a couple of extra grammies and an aunt or 12....
"He's so adorable".... lol

But SERIOUSLY.... LOL

I'm really beat, and have two more long laborious days ahead before a project of mine is done. So this is prolly the full extent of my contribution for the night.... however, I will peep in from time to time.... hope it stays amiable all night, cause I don't have the energy for wrangling...

Interesting potential setup there in the SE Car, which I am noting is not likely to do much damage to the TCHP further north of there....
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00UTC from eWall not showing much in the way of vorticity at the 900 mb level.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Someone earlier wondered whether Igor, with his high ACE and all, would be retired. At the time, I answered that I didn't think that was likely, since impacts seemed low. But after reading about some of the damage yesterday and today, I'm thinking that the Meteorological Service of Canada might, for the second time (the first being with 2003's Hurricane Juan) request retirement. I guess we'll know more with tomorrow's news, of course...
It seems the media(weather channel,and other stations).Only show a small bit of what Igor did to bermuda,and canada.What are the damage reports so far?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17822
Quoting MahFL:


Do you have a source for that ?
Kenneth Feinberg who runs Bp Claims made the statement to Usa Today.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Very similar track, but Felix was already a CAT 1 where 95L is now.


Agree, and we all know that most weaker storms seems to drift more w before the curve N.
is that right? at least in that area.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Thanks i didnt want to go on beyond that timeframe , as their is alot of Controversy.

In Two to Three Days , i will then extend my track...

I Make So Many Tracks and Risks Images, Yet i have no where to put or post it after i post it in the blog.



I Agree. One Great Point i would like to bring up is... If Wilma Missed Cozumel .. it would have Bareled into South West Florida as a CAT 5.
I'm not sure about that. A couple weeks ago I got bored and started reading the old NHC discussions on Wilma. And the primary reason that it weakened was southerly/southwesterly shear affecting the system ahead of a trough (that acted to recurve it towards southern/central Florida). You can read the advisories and all that stuff here.

Of course, land interaction also helped in the weakening of Wilma.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Very similar track, but Felix was already a CAT 1 where 95L is now.



ture but you no it can go up fast it can go from 95L too cat 1 in 24hrs if you have the right wind shear
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Levi32:


Agree....50% is perfect for now. This one will have plenty of time to get going, minus any time spent over central America.

A concern is that if it does punch directly into Nicaragua and then stall there before getting drawn slowly north, it could end up disastrous for that area in terms of heavy rainfall.


I actually hope it goes its merry little way as a TD... some of these late model runs (AP#)are a smidge frightening, not to mention the Cat 3-4 numbers.
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1827. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
0:00 AM UTC September 22 2010
====================================

An area of showers and thunderstorms is located about 535 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and has been moving west northwest near 10 mph. Although thunderstorms have decreased in coverage during the day, slow development is possible.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================================
There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46987
1826. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (T1012)
9:00 AM JST September 22 2010
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Malakas (996 hPa) located at 18.9N 143.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.8N 141.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.3N 140.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 27.4N 141.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46987
1825. Levi32
Back later.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



this all most looks like it will take the same track has felix did


Very similar track, but Felix was already a CAT 1 where 95L is now.
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Quoting MiamiThreater:


Just like Wilma, huh, Bob? Die over CA, LOL, that was a good one, BTW! You've got jokes, sir, ^_^.


LOL. I don't want this one to put on the brakes and then start to turn North.
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1820. Stats56
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Nice update / map


that is cool, i will be quiet now
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1817. Levi32
Quoting gordydunnot:
Last comment for tonight. I think NHC has it about right 50 percent. Can not find one pressure drop anywhere in the Caribbean or surrounding Atlantic, vorticity is very spread out. Looks like equal chance of being a Gaston or Alex. If it goes the way of Alex then we all can be worried, but we are not going to know for 2 more days at least IMO.


Agree....50% is perfect for now. This one will have plenty of time to get going, minus any time spent over central America.

A concern is that if it does punch directly into Nicaragua and then stall there before getting drawn slowly north, it could end up disastrous for that area in terms of heavy rainfall.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Nicaragua bound as per the GFS ??

Yes.

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Quoting kmanislander:
Nicaragua bound as per the GFS ??




this all most looks like it will take the same track has felix did
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting gordydunnot:
Last comment for tonight. I think NHC has it about right 50 percent. Can not find one pressure drop anywhere in the Caribbean or surrounding Atlantic, vorticity is very spread out. Looks like equal chance of being a Gaston or Alex. If it goes the way of Alex then we all can be worried, but we are not going to know for 2 more days at least IMO.


Great point. I believe that this system will need to get West of 75 before it can get going. Thats normally the case in the Caribbean.
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If that little bubble of convection in the center blows up 95L might be a TD tomorrow I think it will take a day though
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Nicaragua bound as per the GFS ??

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1806. Levi32
Quoting BenBIogger:


1968 Hurricane Gladys probably had the same setup as Isbell.


Actually it was a bit different. The orientation of the longwaves was not the same, in fact almost opposite. That just goes to show that analogous tracks don't necessarily mean analogous patterns as well.

October 17th, 1968:

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1805. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A./INV/95L
MARK
13.89N/65.96W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting JupiterFL:


Looks very reasonable to me. Nice job sammy.
I agree. In which case it does miss central America, it could intensify furthermore considering the favorable upper level environment, moist mid-level, and bubbling TCHP.
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Quoting Levi32:


Rob? Geoff....what has happened today. You have forgotten your own identity as well as Bob's...lol.


LOL. Actually alot of people call me Rob as well in the "real world". So all is good!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:




Comments?


Looks very reasonable to me. Nice job sammy.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
Hmmm. Getting interesting. You see, if 95L can miss central America altogether it will have the chance to intensify excessively. However, I'm not sure if any global models are showing this.

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1798. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Thank you Rob. I follow your forecasts also.


Rob? Geoff....what has happened today. You have forgotten your own identity as well as Bob's...lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Last comment for tonight. I think NHC has it about right 50 percent. Can not find one pressure drop anywhere in the Caribbean or surrounding Atlantic, vorticity is very spread out. Looks like equal chance of being a Gaston or Alex. If it goes the way of Alex then we all can be worried, but we are not going to know for 2 more days at least IMO.
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Quoting Levi32:
Hmm now....look at the 500mb pattern when Isbell in 1964 was sitting southwest of Florida, and compare to the GFS Day 7 forecast. The similarities are interesting...not perfect, but interesting.

October 14th, 1964:



GFS Day 7 forecast:




1968 Hurricane Gladys probably had the same setup as Isbell.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Beautiful day today where I'm at,
a little warm but a nice breeze.


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1793. Patrap
00z Invest95L

Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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Quoting pilotguy1:


Come on admin................


Whats the problem here? He didn't finish his post but who cares we all got the gist of it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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