Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1942 - 1892

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Quoting blsealevel:


Why thank you
Something to watch for ant it.
That reminds me.
Everybody in the Gulf is on O-fish'l ant watch.
Report any unusual mounds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Objectivity? Come on Kman! You know that word doesn't mesh with the overall tone of this blog! That word is foreign to a lot of people on here!


There are those who fear these systems and think that saying they won't develop will prevent development. Then there are those who have never experienced a hurricane and "upcast" what they see wishing to go through one.

Having gone through Gilbert, Ivan and numerous calls too close for comfort I have learned to respect tropical systems. At least you get lots of warning to prepare and evacuate. I'd rather be threatened by a hurricane 3 days away than get thrown out of bed by an earthquake or Sunami.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
But MH09 I see a very good spin at 13.1N 66.0W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What are your thoughts on 95 Grothar?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Good evening. I like to take these systems one bite at a time. First, the models have to verify out to 144 hrs or thereabouts and get this into the Gulf of Honduras via Nicaragua. If that happens we then look to see how long it meanders around and whether the COL develops.

If it does redevelop in the Gulf of Honduras or worse, misses Nicaragua then a track to the N becomes a distinct possibility with the trough swinging down. Where it goes from there will depend on steering that is too far down the road to speculate on right now.


I love logical thinking! Thank you Kman.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherxtreme:
Very good Kman! I always enjoy all of your comments! No way you are a downcaster or any type of Caster just what you see in the data. Have a great evening!


Thanks, you too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1928. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Oh...Mmmmm...Hey Buddy! 95 not looking to well at the moment. But, we have seen this before.


Yes, we have....Patience!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very good Kman! I always enjoy all of your comments! No way you are a downcaster or any type of Caster just what you see in the data. Have a great evening!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:

He wasn't there when I speared the fish and belted them. Saw him as I tried to return. He only got one, the one I threw as far in front of him as I could.
I used to get my cousin to stand on the shore with a fishing rod with a big bobber right nest to the hook....when I speared a fish I would hold it out of the water and he would cast out to me and I would put the fish on his line so he could get it out of the water. Discretion is the better part of valor!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1925. NRAamy
Is it safe in here? ( pokes head into blog, looks left, looks right, then backs out)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1924. mbjjm
95L could be a tropical storm by Thursday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormhank:
evening kman!! I know 95 has got to form first before and thing can be declared on its track etc...but from what ive seen in models they want to take it to honduras//yucatan and then shift it northward toward the gulf of mexico..u think down the road it could affect gulf coast/// florida panhandle??


Good evening. I like to take these systems one bite at a time. First, the models have to verify out to 144 hrs or thereabouts and get this into the Gulf of Honduras via Nicaragua. If that happens we then look to see how long it meanders around and whether the COL develops.

If it does redevelop in the Gulf of Honduras or worse, misses Nicaragua then a track to the N becomes a distinct possibility with the trough swinging down. Where it goes from there will depend on steering that is too far down the road to speculate on right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Have anything in color? Just looks like a cloudy mess.


Oh...Mmmmm...Hey Buddy! 95 not looking to well at the moment. But, we have seen this before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The John Hope rule, Rules once again with 95L, only thing in my opinion, this will develop farther East and South of karl, steering currents will be weak allowing this one to fester and become quite a powerful hurricane before it drifts NNW, then N, and then NE just my opinion of course , its not a mattter of if 95L will develop, just simply when,36-48 hours Matthew should be born,JMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not only is the vort max located quite close to the coast (which would prohibit any significant development), but is is also displaced from the deepest convection.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Whats Up Buddy.

Live a little to the South of you.

Wilma Dejavu?


It really is too early to tell Sammy. I didn’t take Wilma seriously since she was approaching from the west coast. Wilma tore the roof off my house. So I hope not a repeat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Correct me if I am wrong.. I have caught Cuda's up to 45lbs, and I hear they get much bigger... umm so wouldn't that be sort of a stupid thing to do?

He wasn't there when I speared the fish and belted them. Saw him as I tried to return. He only got one, the one I threw as far in front of him as I could.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:


Can I buy a vowel?
NO DEAL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ummm .... NFI = No Freaking Idea.


Thanks. I didn't think to look in the Urban Dictionary. :^)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1912. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Have anything in color? Just looks like a cloudy mess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At the risk of now being labelled a wishcaster, here are the first signs of surface convergence.

Fair and balanced reporting ??

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
evening kman!! I know 95 has got to form first before and thing can be declared on its track etc...but from what ive seen in models they want to take it to honduras//yucatan and then shift it northward toward the gulf of mexico..u think down the road it could affect gulf coast/// florida panhandle??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


After reading your comments for many weeks, I've come to the conclusion that Ike is not a downcaster and that you are.


You may want to learn more about those who know what they are talking about and those who pretend to know and talk themselves up to prove it. Or are you just another of the new people that has just come in to disrupt the blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


That's a Wahoo. I've been on the wrong side of a cuda before, swimming back and forth inside the sand bar between me and the beach. And me with a stringer of bloody fish hanging from my waist.
I've seen a Wahoo bite through 7 strand 120# stainless leader...They are the coolest fish ever.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


A trough is expected to dig down and erode the Western flank of the high where a cut off low will develop and pull 95L to the N as a hurricane. That is what the models see.


Why thank you
Something to watch for ant it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


I actually still think Wilma had two eyes from the start. If you recall as it headed east of Florida it had a double eye. Then you think back to that pinhole eye just swirling around what seemed like a central point - or moreso - almost as if it were dancing with a second eye that was not visible.

It was a very strange event. I can't help but wonder if it had two well established vorticies that just swirled around each other (kind of like a large tornado that has several smaller vorticies rotating around each other within the larger funnel).



I remember this quite well. The pinhole eye seemed to be rotating around an invisible point. My armchair theory is that such a tiny (2mi) eye like that is going to wobble about the true center of the storm, and it seemed to eventually dissipate along the edge of the new larger eye during it's 1st EWRC.

Or, all eyes wobble a little, but a large (20-30mi) eye is just too big to notice any wobble.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


That's a Wahoo. I've been on the wrong side of a cuda before, swimming back and forth inside the sand bar between me and the beach. And me with a stringer of bloody fish hanging from my waist.


Correct me if I am wrong.. I have caught Cuda's up to 45lbs, and I hear they get much bigger... umm so wouldn't that be sort of a stupid thing to do?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


You think ??. I haven't been far off the mark this season though, have I ?. Just because I say 95L will not likely develop for about 24 to 36 hrs does not make me a downcaster. Look at the data objectively.
Was thinking the same. I learned my lesson with Dolly. Esp. in the CAR, if kman says not to expect development in the next 24 - 36, there's usually a good reason why....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


After reading your comments for many weeks, I've come to the conclusion that Ike is not a downcaster and that you are.
LOL, how's that being a downcaster? 95L's 850mb vorticity signature is elongated from east to west, and quite sincerely isn't near tropical depression status. I would say that it will take at least 48 hours for it to become a tropical depression.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Nicaragua bound as per the GFS ??



Yea, but if you watch the whole run, it does a crazy dying scene over land and then redevelops off the Nicaraguan coast and heads for FL. In line with the last couple euro runs. Of course, it has not even developed at all, so we shall see.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LowerCal:
Lisa is using the often stated and seldom correct WUblog NFI model.

I probably shouldn't ask but NFI?


Ummm .... NFI = No Freaking Idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1942 - 1892

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.