Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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2042. Grothar
Quoting SQUAWK:


Enough already!!! LOL


OK, word games over. Wouldn't want to cause any trepidation on the blog now,would we?
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img
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2039. NRAamy
Coco....I am more of a Ted Nugent girl than a John Wayne dame....
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2038. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
Pott...yer gettin on my last nerve....I'm starving over here....at least fix me some pop tarts....

Groth!

:)

Sorry, Amy.
But the weather has been so completely Dread here, and I have been out all day, I am soon going to bed.
You gotta fix your own tonight.
Looks to me like some serious rains are still to come......
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Groucho??????


Grothar and I are Gummo and Zeppo. Left behind in history.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Hm, birds, chicks, thesaurus, (not only cannot I not say the blasted word, it took me 3 times to spell it), reading lessons, and looking for the walls.

Doesn't sound very tropical in here to me.


Lull before the storm? :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seems calm this evening so I'll go ahead and announce the website that I have created. There you can find my latest blog entries, all the links you would ever need for the tropics, and much more. Right now the website is not complete, but should be done by the end of the month.

MiamiHurricanes09 website
Miami What are you trying to do? Get a perma-ban? Direct people to check out your latest blog and then post link and address there. And then do it only once a day or so.
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Groucho??????


"You bet your life"
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Quoting pottery:

Nop (sic)
My Nephew who lives in St.Kitts e-mailed me, and advised me of your spurious statement.
I have continuously advised the young fellow to desist from frequenting blogs like your, but he persists... Cannot imagine why.
heheheheh


Hmmmm your age....
Nephew = (Son of Sister or Brother. close to your age)

Which would make him.... hmmm almost as old as dirt.
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2031. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:


toss those fuzzy suckers down here.
Your avatar is creating a hostile enviroment!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting NRAamy:
Shen...I'm actually closer to a tree hugger than a warmonger....ok, I take that back....but i give all trolls a fair chance...you can't judge a troll by it's fuzzy green hair.....


You better John Wayne would not be proud of that statement :P.
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2029. robj144
Quoting sunlinepr:
Too bad....Seems like there will be forgotten no-Conus days....




Huh?
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2028. SQUAWK
Quoting Grothar:


You could have said "droll". LOL


Enough already!!! LOL
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Quoting NRAamy:
Shen...I'm actually closer to a tree hugger than a warmonger....ok, I take that back....but i give all trolls a fair chance...you can't judge a troll by it's fuzzy green hair.....


Actually, I think these trolls give trolls a bad name. Watching an 80's flash back show the other night, had forgotten how many trolls there were, the hairstyles, hmmm those were the days
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Just took the pup out for a walk...Beautiful outside...low humidity and a nice breeze.
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2024. NRAamy
Pott...yer gettin on my last nerve....I'm starving over here....at least fix me some pop tarts....

Groth!

:)
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Quoting StormChaser81:


He's not a WU member anymore.


Seriously?
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2022. Grothar
Quoting Orcasystems:


Do you have any idea how hard it is to use a Thesaurus to find a funny word that means Foolish.. thats as close as I could get.


You could have said "droll". LOL
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Quoting kmanislander:


There are those who fear these systems and think that saying they won't develop will prevent development. Then there are those who have never experienced a hurricane and "upcast" what they see wishing to go through one.

Having gone through Gilbert, Ivan and numerous calls too close for comfort I have learned to respect tropical systems. At least you get lots of warning to prepare and evacuate. I'd rather be threatened by a hurricane 3 days away than get thrown out of bed by an earthquake or Sunami.
KMan...thank goodness you're around with your wise words.
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Hm, birds, chicks, thesaurus, (not only cannot I not say the blasted word, it took me 3 times to spell it), reading lessons, and looking for the walls.

Doesn't sound very tropical in here to me.
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Too bad....Seems like that Conus may be affected...


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2018. NRAamy
Shen...I'm actually closer to a tree hugger than a warmonger....ok, I take that back....but i give all trolls a fair chance...you can't judge a troll by it's fuzzy green hair.....
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Quoting Grothar:


where it stops nobody knows

I'm thinking darts will give the same idea.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
2016. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


What did you do, read the ENTIRE blog?

Nop (sic)
My Nephew who lives in St.Kitts e-mailed me, and advised me of your spurious statement.
I have continuously advised the young fellow to desist from frequenting blogs like your, but he persists... Cannot imagine why.
heheheheh
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Link

A dedication to 95L
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Good Evening All!

After looking at 95L, I have to agree with others that the 850 vorticity is elongated E-W too much at the moment for a closed circulation to form. It's in an area that doesn't favor development, particularly being so clase to South America.
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2012. Grothar
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2011. EricSFL
Quoting WXTXN:
Was anybody here in the eye of that thing?!?!



I was under the southern eye wall.
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Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting pottery:

UNTRUE!!
If it was true (the opening of the bottle thing) we would have gone past Zeta, and be around William on the second round...
Get yor facts straight, Orc..........


What did you do, read the ENTIRE blog?
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Quoting NRAamy:
I'm a chick....I'm allowed to be a wussy....like duh.....

With your arsenal I'm surprised you didn't come stomping in and holler "run for your lives trolls."
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Quoting mbjjm:
Infrared Image of Hurricane Wilma at peak intensity 882mb





Eye-Eye Captain.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
2005. robj144
Quoting WXTXN:
Was anybody here in the eye of that thing?!?!



I was...good times.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seems calm this evening so I'll go ahead and announce the website that I have created. There you can find my latest blog entries, all the links you would ever need for the tropics, and much more. Right now the website is not complete, but should be done by the end of the month.

MiamiHurricanes09 website


Nice MiamiHurricanes09 you ant ummm not planning oh never mind, good work with your site.
your another one thats got a chance to take this to a higher level.

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2002. SQUAWK
Quoting Orcasystems:


Do you have any idea how hard it is to use a Thesaurus to find a funny word that means Foolish.. thats as close as I could get.


1. a dictionary of synonyms and antonyms.
2. any dictionary, encyclopedia, or other comprehensive reference book.
3. a storehouse, repository, or treasury.

OK, this is gettin outta hand! LOL I am having to look up too many words.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


wth...i think the ukm had a seizure...lol
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1999. mbjjm
Infrared Image of Hurricane Wilma at peak intensity 882mb. In a similar location to where some of the models have 95L



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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That reminds me.
Everybody in the Gulf is on O-fish'l ant watch.
Report any unusual mounds.


You just had to bring that up, didn't you?

I was outside today, waiting on the dog, and I caught myself looking around at the ant hills.

;-)
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1997. scott39
Quoting NRAamy:
I'm bringing back the purple hippo...problem solved....
Whats the problem?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Oh, Oh!!!! That name is not to be written, spoken, thought of, or hummed. And yes, I know, we've all been reported.


No name in that sentence, could have been talking about JFV. =)
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1995. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm sorry...Ducks still hitting me in the head.


Sorry, got to talk to George Fenneman about that! Stop saying the secret word and it will go away.
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1994. WXTXN
Was anybody here in the eye of that thing?!?!
Quoting mbjjm:
Hurricane Wilma 2005





http://dabaird.com/family/events/hurricanes/assets/wilma_regional.gif

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1993. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

95L, I am starting to worry, every time Pottery opens a new bottle of Rum, he starts an invest over his house. Looks like he is a lush with what Jeff just posted...

(Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical disturbances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks)


TS Lisa, solidly following the NFI track as per normal



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

UNTRUE!!
If it was true (the opening of the bottle thing) we would have gone past Zeta, and be around William on the second round...
Get yor facts straight, Orc..........
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.