Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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2492. xcool
i really hate cold weather..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting StormJunkie:
21 years ago...About an hour ago...On my Mom's birthday...I brought her a muffin with a candle in it. Huddled in the hall way...Well actually, right about now we were likely walking out in to the clear eyewall. Dad was working for the town so it was just me and her at the house. Scary night, but I wouldn't trade the experience. Happy Birthday Mom.
Very sweet. A vivid early memory.
Happy Birthday SJ's mom!!
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2490. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Nope, 956 mb is at most a cat. 4, and that's a tight tight small tropical cyclone with a sharp pressure gradient. Otherwise, that's more like cat. 2 or 3.


I've been wondering how high it will ramp up seeing as how large it is supposed to be. Also know how much heat there is down there though...
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Cosmic: I have read this blog for so long, and so much that I feel like I know most of you. Anyway it upsets me when new people come on here and are just rude for no reason.
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2487. xcool
CoopNTexas /lows in 50 next week here ;(
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting hunkerdown:
which would translate to a cat 4 or 5


Nope, 956 mb is at most a cat. 4, and that's a tight tight small tropical cyclone with a sharp pressure gradient. Otherwise, that's more like cat. 2 or 3.
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21 years ago...About an hour ago...On my Mom's birthday...I brought her a muffin with a candle in it. Huddled in the hall way...Well actually, right about now we were likely walking out in to the clear eye. Dad was working for the town so it was just me and her at the house. Scary night, but I wouldn't trade the experience. Happy Birthday Mom.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I remember.
14 days out there wasn't much more than some indications of low pressure in the Western Carib. It wasn't until 10 days out that they hinted at something like the final outcome, give or take 400 miles one way or the other:). It was really only 5 days out, AFTER we had a well-developed cyclone, that the track became meaningful, and it eventually verified.


Wilma, she was a trickster. There were so many shortwave troughs that could have turned Wilma northward, I imagine it would have been hard for the models to decide which trough would ultimately turn Wilma northbound.
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Quoting reedzone:


With that major high in the Atlantic, this will likely move up the coastline, sort of like Donna in 1960 I think?

This was the high we were supposed to have a month ago, but it came in a bit too late and CV season is shutting down, not over yet though.
Reed, I'm determined to live long enough to see you forecast a fate similar to some forgotten "L" of years past that amounted to nothing...rather than some super-destructo cane.
.
.
One of these storms. I can wait years(I hope).
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:
Thank you I was just curious and I appreciate the responses.


To more specifically answer your question. The models were tightly clustered once Wilma achieved TS status. Remarkably so.
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Quoting xcool:


oh yeah getting readyy winter


With La Nina coming in town, I know for folks like me in the southeast that it'll be warmer and drier than normal. Not excepting much snow this winter if any :( Me like snow!
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coolio...nice cool front scheduled for Southeast Texas next week...lows in the 60s...NEED IT...HOT
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2478. will40
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yikes, I know Donna 1960 affected Raleigh, NC pretty well too (and Raleigh is inland in east-central NC). Thats a rare example of a Caribbean storm that tracks so close to the east coast that it makes landfall in NC. Usually such storms stay east of us because the steering upper trough keeps the storm just east of us. I remember Ernesto 2006 was supposed to affect me, but then it made an even further eastward deflection just before landfall that nothing happened to me.


Yea i remember Ernesto. He spawned a tornado and ruined my roof
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Hello Kerry and thank you
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:
Thank you I was just curious and I appreciate the responses.*
You're very welcome*
.
.
.
.
*Good blog etiquete
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Quoting reedzone:


With that major high in the Atlantic, this will likely move up the coastline, sort of like Donna in 1960 I think?

This was the high we were supposed to have a month ago, but it came in a bit too late and CV season is shutting down, not over yet though.


Yikes, I know Donna 1960 affected Raleigh, NC pretty well too (and Raleigh is inland in east-central NC). Thats a rare example of a Caribbean storm that tracks so close to the east coast that it makes landfall in NC. Usually such storms stay east of us because the steering upper trough keeps the storm just east of us. I remember Ernesto 2006 was supposed to affect me, but then it made an even further eastward deflection just before landfall that nothing happened to me.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


7-10 days. Still up in the air though as to whether it ever makes the Gulf or not. May cut across Cuba heading more E and across the straights.


I would love for it to stay out of the Gulf. I mean it's way to much work rigging down for a storm evacuation. Not to mention as we all know once it hits the Gulf it has to make landfall somewhere.
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2473. xcool


oh yeah getting readyy winter
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Thank you I was just curious and I appreciate the responses.
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Quoting Want2learn:
Big question guys, how come Igor is blowing harder over the Arctic areas of Canada than it did over Bermuda, NHC says 105 mph gusts???? Just seems crazzzy.


Igor is one of the most impressive tropical to extratropical (non-tropical, post-tropical, whatever you want to call it) transition cases I have seen. An extratropical cyclone intensifies using upper air divergence (acceleration) on the east side of an upper trough. An upper trough is associated with a cold air mass.

So Igor was already massive and powerful before merging with the east side of the upper trough. It "perfectly" aligned itself with the upper divergence maximum on the east side of the upper trough, becoming the dominant extratropical cyclone supported by the trough.

Did you notice that the central pressure of Igor was actualy falling even though it was moving over cold waters?! That's because Igor was intensifying due to the upper divergence max. of the upper trough. And as a remnant extratropical cyclone, it still maybe strengthening, producing even stronger winds after leaving Canada.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
which would translate to a cat 4 or 5

I thought 950MB indicated a Cat 2/3 storm, under normal circumstances, oh, wait, this is 2010, the year of CAT 4's!!
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Quoting Seastep:


Sorry. That's just pure evil. Not funny.

I'm out.


It's a country song
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:
Hello all, I am new here (been lurking since 07)and just love watching the night crew joke and play around alot of things put a smile on my face thank you for that! I do have a quetion does anybody remember where the models were forcasting Wilma to go this far out?


Wilma
was one of the rarities that had a pretty straight forward direction, timing was the issue and will be this time around. The model consensus is rather tight ATM and has been. This leads to a believable forecast. Timing and strength of the driving forces will determine the final landfall.
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2465. EricSFL
Goodnight everyone.
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:
Hello all, I am new here (been lurking since 07)and just love watching the night crew joke and play around alot of things put a smile on my face thank you for that! I do have a quetion does anybody remember where the models were forcasting Wilma to go this far out?
Link
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:
Hello all, I am new here (been lurking since 07)and just love watching the night crew joke and play around alot of things put a smile on my face thank you for that! I do have a quetion does anybody remember where the models were forcasting Wilma to go this far out?
I remember.
14 days out there wasn't much more than some indications of low pressure in the Western Carib. It wasn't until 10 days out that they hinted at something like the final outcome, give or take 400 miles one way or the other:). It was really only 5 days out, AFTER we had a well-developed cyclone, that the track became meaningful, and it eventually verified.
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Quoting Want2learn:
Big question guys, how come Igor is blowing harder over the Arctic areas of Canada than it did over Bermuda, NHC says 105 mph gusts???? Just seems crazzzy.

Igor went from being a warm core system, feeding from the warm ocean and has become extratropical, a baroclinic storm, that accesses it energy from the differences for the temperatures in the air masses.

You have warm tropical air, thrusted in to an Arctic airmass, the wind fields have spread out and we have a monster Low pressure area, with 80F air being shoved into 30F air, one mean nasty storm!!!
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2461. Seastep
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I pray your birthday comes and nobody calls,
I pray your flying high when your engine stalls,
I pray all your dreams, never come true,
just know wherever you are, I pray for you..

Just playing, I really like that song though. Hey i work on a rig in the Gulf of Mexico. How soon are we looking at this thing making it into the Gulf? I mean if it does form and takes that path.


Sorry. That's just pure evil. Not funny.

I'm out.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
is Ed "Too Tall" Jones too tall ?


Does a drill sergeant make a terrible therapist?
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Quoting reedzone:


It's just another run, if it were to verify, NYC woiuld get the worst of the storm, being on the northeast side. This would be like a "doomsday scenario", the surge, winds, combined with heavy rain = not good. Again, this is just another model run.


It actually looks like SE Fl or NC would get the worst on that 1 particular run...So many days out it is only useful in order to start building more consistency and a more exact consensus.
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The model runs of 95L sort of remind me of the tracks of storms like Charley 2004, Ernesto 2006, Wilma 2005, a storm born in the Caribbean that then has potential to affect up and down the eastern seabaord upon turning north. Except for Floridians, such storms tend to not be that bad for folks north of Florida because its an upper trough that draws the storm northward from the Caribbean.

The upper trough tends to push the storm northeastward, or parallel and offshore of the eastern US coast. The only time such a storm would be bad would be if the upper trough highly amplifies into an upper low, which would change the storm track from northeastward to more northward or northwestward. Does anyone know if the models are hinting at the upper trough driving 95L north amplifying into an upper low?
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Cuba, then maybe extreme SE Fl, then NC, then NJ...To be a little more precise about it.


With that major high in the Atlantic, this will likely move up the coastline, sort of like Donna in 1960 I think?

This was the high we were supposed to have a month ago, but it came in a bit too late and CV season is shutting down, not over yet though.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, sorry, I sincerely try to refrain from profanity, but when I saw what looked like a 952MB Cat 2 or 3 in the GOM, instinct took over!
which would translate to a cat 4 or 5
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I pray your birthday comes and nobody calls,
I pray your flying high when your engine stalls,
I pray all your dreams, never come true,
just know wherever you are, I pray for you..

Just playing, I really like that song though. Hey i work on a rig in the Gulf of Mexico. How soon are we looking at this thing making it into the Gulf? I mean if it does form and takes that path.


7-10 days. Still up in the air though as to whether it ever makes the Gulf or not. May cut across Cuba heading more E and across the straights.
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Quoting Grothar:


Still a real New Yorker, I see! ROFL.

Yes, sorry, I sincerely try to refrain from profanity, but when I saw what looked like a 952MB Cat 2 or 3 in the GOM, instinct took over!
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Big question guys, how come Igor is blowing harder over the Arctic areas of Canada than it did over Bermuda, NHC says 105 mph gusts???? Just seems crazzzy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello all, I am new here (been lurking since 07)and just love watching the night crew joke and play around alot of things put a smile on my face thank you for that! I do have a quetion does anybody remember where the models were forcasting Wilma to go this far out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2449. xcool
gfs call for winter
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting NRAamy:
;)
you didn't delete fast enough :)
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I knew the odds would catch up with Atlantic City one day.
Final answer?


It's just another run, if it were to verify, NYC woiuld get the worst of the storm, being on the northeast side. This would be like a "doomsday scenario", the surge, winds, combined with heavy rain = not good. Again, this is just another model run.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Why? Because they let you in....
touche
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I pray your birthday comes and nobody calls,
I pray your flying high when your engine stalls,
I pray all your dreams, never come true,
just know wherever you are, I pray for you..

Just playing, I really like that song though. Hey i work on a rig in the Gulf of Mexico. How soon are we looking at this thing making it into the Gulf? I mean if it does form and takes that path.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Her name was TD Hermine, dropped between 6-12 inches of rain in our DFW Metro area, along with 4 tornadoes and massive flooding, yes we have felt the effects of a TC!!!!!
I think you missed the point of the comment.
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I forgot to ask, does anyone else here think that Georgette in the eastern Pacific is the reincarnation of Hurricane Karl (i.e. Georgette developed from the remnants of Karl)?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.