Igor spares Bermuda; Fanapi hits China; exceptionally quiet in the Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

The core of Category 1 Hurricane Igor passed approximately 40 miles west of Bermuda at 11 pm AST last night, bringing winds just below hurricane force to the island. Winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 68 mph, gusting to 93 mph, at 11:22 pm AST last night. Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph began at 10 am AST on Sunday, and were still present as of 9:38 am AST (44 mph, gusting to 53 mph.) Bermuda radar shows that the core of Igor is now well past Bermuda, with only a few spiral bands to the south that will bring occasional rain squalls to the island this morning. Pressures are rising rapidly, and the storm is almost over for Bermuda. No injuries or major damage has been reported from Bermuda thus far, though Igor's waves are being blamed for two deaths in the Caribbean, one on Puerto Rico and one on St. Croix.

Igor is headed northeastward, out to sea, but will pass close enough to southeast Newfoundland to bring tropical storm force winds there on Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Igor as seen by the International Space Station at 9:56 am EDT September 14, 2010. At the time, Igor was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. This image ranks as one of the top-five most spectacular hurricane images ever taken from space, in my mind. To see the full-size image, visit the NASA Earth Observatory web site.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a well-defined surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and downdrafts created by mid-level dry air getting ingested into the storm are creating surface arc clouds on the west side of the storm, as seen in recent visible satellite loops. 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and the amount of thunderstorm activity will have to increase in order for this system to be considered a tropical depression. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and most of the major forecast models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 80% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi hits China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong this morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Fanapi was the strongest typhoon so far this season, peaking at Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds shortly before weakening to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds when it hit northern Taiwan early Sunday morning, local time. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

A remarkably quiet Western Pacific typhoon season and Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. Before Fanapi, the strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. According to statistics forwarded to me by NOAA meteorologist Paul Stanko on Guam, by this point in an ordinary typhoon season, we should have had 17 named storms, 11 typhoons, and 2 super supertyphoons (winds of 150+ mph.) This year, we've had just 11 named storms, 5 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record low for a typhoon season was 18 named storms (set in 1998), 9 typhoons (set in 1998), and no supertyphoons (set in 1974.) We have a chance of beating all of these records this year. The peak date for the Western Pacific typhoon season is August 28, so we are well past the peak.

It's a similar story out in the Eastern Pacific, where a near-record quiet hurricane season is occurring. So far there have been 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Ordinarily, we should have had 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricane by this point in the season. Since reliable satellite records of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity began in 1970, the quietest season on record was 1977, when just 8 named storms occurred. The fewest hurricanes occurred in 2007 (four), and there have been two years with no intense hurricanes. The peak of Eastern Pacific hurricane season is around August 25, and on average we can expect just 3 more named storms this year. Thus, we could set records for the fewest named storms and hurricanes this year.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in China at 5:15 UTC on September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2332 - 2282

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Looks like the models predictions of something in the Gulf may be correct......Lets hope not!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
TS Georgette has formed in the East Pacific.


MJO at work.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM BUENAVISTA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS ON THE EAST COAST.

First named storm for roughly 3 weeks - Frank left the world on the 28th of August.

I suppose Karl's remnants had something to do with Georgette? The Atlantic returning the favour after Hermine.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
TS Georgette has formed in the East Pacific.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2325. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Probably the NHC will raise the pct. on the Caribbean disturbance.
I concur
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Curacao Radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2323. IKE
Probably the NHC will raise the pct. on the Caribbean disturbance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2322. scott39
Quoting P451:

Caribbean 24HR WV Loop


Java intensive loop here save your work before clicking.

Caribbean: 24 Hour WV Loop with 30 minute increments.

Courtesy of the U of Hawaii
thanks, Does it refresh automatically?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


GFS...CMC and Nogaps each run shear forecasts.


Don't forget the UKMET.
72hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2318. scott39
Quoting IKE:


GFS...CMC and Nogaps each run shear forecasts.
Thanks, Why doesnt the intensity with the GFS match the wind shear map? Shouldnt it show it being a weaker system?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most of the oceanic heat energy left is currently around the Caribbean and eastern GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ull might encourage strenghtening if the low pressure at the surface is in the right location
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Looks like AOI in SE Carribean has very moist enviroment and low wind shear.
Looks like it has an anti-cyclone situated over it now too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2313. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Very Good. What wind shear maps are the models looking at?


GFS...CMC and Nogaps each run shear forecasts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2311. shawn26
Looks like the west coast of Florida could be in for a lashing in the next week or two.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2310. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Shear on the GFS at 168 hours...

Very Good. What wind shear maps are the models looking at?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2309. Patrap
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
off to make a buck or three

have a great Tuesday folks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2306. IKE
Shear on the GFS at 168 hours...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2305. scott39
Looks like AOI in SE Carribean has very moist enviroment and low wind shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2303. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Likely to turn a system that is moving north, toward the east of north.
Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2302. surfmom
wellllllll - I'm not buckling up the seatbelt just yet, but....I'm watching
off to get my run in b/4 the road heats up enough to melt the soles of my shoes

good day to all -
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Latest NOGAPS run shows an upper level-low over the SE USA next Monday...Link


Yeah. Also notice the Low over the SE digging in.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Nary a drop here either. Fast or famine as far as water goes this year...


I'm trying to decide what I want more - rain or cool weather - we have had neither and I probably ought not be greedy

:-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2299. scott39
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Off to my classroom of kiddies. Have a great day everyone!
you too!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2298. IKE
Quoting scott39:
How does that help?


Likely to turn a system that is moving north, toward the east of north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Off to my classroom of kiddies. Have a great day everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning
area of disturbed weather over windward islands should be designated 95L. heavy rain and gusty winds have been lashing the islands since midnight.winds have gusted to 40 mph at times. looking at sat pics there seems to be a mid level circulation. the system looks to be getting a little better organise. this could be the precursor to the western caribbean storm that most of the models are hinting at
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lhwhelk:
How much are you offering? My back yard is a "lake"--it's finally made up for the previous lack of rain for the year and now has nowhere to go.


that's not good - sorry - been there before

I have nothing left to offer - just paid my water bill

:-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Deep convection is on the increase with future 95L. Expect it to be a rainy and gusty day for those of you that live on the south-central part of the island chain.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2293. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Latest NOGAPS run shows an upper level-low over the SE USA next Monday...Link
How does that help?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lhwhelk:
How much are you offering? My back yard is a "lake"--it's finally made up for the previous lack of rain for the year and now has nowhere to go.


Swimming is good exercise to workout a dog... *G* And clean up on a Pom is less than a St. Bernard. Ducking...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2291. IKE
Latest NOGAPS run shows an upper level-low over the SE USA next Monday...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting swlaaggie:


and yet, in Lake Charles, we can't even buy a drop of rain :-(


Nary a drop here either. Fast or famine as far as water goes this year...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2289. lhwhelk
Quoting swlaaggie:


and yet, in Lake Charles, we can't even buy a drop of rain :-(
How much are you offering? My back yard is a "lake"--it's finally made up for the previous lack of rain for the year and now has nowhere to go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2288. Titoxd
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Lisa will repeat her 2004 self. Wiki says Karl's damage is at 3.9 billion that can't be right


Karl's case is interesting. It is still too soon to make monetary assessments of damage, but the Governor of Veracruz's guess was that it caused 50 billion pesos of damage to the state (which converts to $3.9 billion). It's a guess, but since it's the Governor's guess, we report it. We won't know better until about a month or so, when damage figures must be reported if Veracruz wants to access FONDEN (Federal Natural Disaster Fund) money.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2287. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:
The Wayfaring Model (Euro) gets ugly in the GOM:

I wish it would Wayfe to a weaker TC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2286. surfmom
Thank YOU DestinJeff...... that's just the picture we Gomex folks like flashing in our faces first thing in the morning.....
jack's the heart rate up faster then expressO....

ahhhh, the sweet bliss of ignorance has been completely destroyed -- what a guy you are - ROTFL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Overall, with the exception of the GFS, the model consensus has trended west with the medium range threat of the Windward Islands disturbance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lhwhelk:
The 50% chance of rain for Lake Jackson today (50 miles south of Houston) has turned into 2 1/2" since 3 a.m. Whatever that left-over piece of Karl actually is, it sure is persistent.


and yet, in Lake Charles, we can't even buy a drop of rain :-(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
how many isobars around that low near florida? you know its suppose to be bad when you need a magnifying glass. might hear the D word like we did with igor
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2282. surfmom
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Anyone still paying attention to Igor? Looks like he's ready to wreak some havoc in Newfoundland today. Winds at St. Pierre already up to 56 mph with gusts to 77. And offshore, significant wave heights are up to 32 ft.


WhOOOOOOOO - that's a whole lot of heavy water!!!!Hope photoman Incogkneetoe isn't out and about in those winds taking pictures --Igor's weather's a bit rowdy up there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2332 - 2282

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
37 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron