Igor spares Bermuda; Fanapi hits China; exceptionally quiet in the Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2010

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The core of Category 1 Hurricane Igor passed approximately 40 miles west of Bermuda at 11 pm AST last night, bringing winds just below hurricane force to the island. Winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 68 mph, gusting to 93 mph, at 11:22 pm AST last night. Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph began at 10 am AST on Sunday, and were still present as of 9:38 am AST (44 mph, gusting to 53 mph.) Bermuda radar shows that the core of Igor is now well past Bermuda, with only a few spiral bands to the south that will bring occasional rain squalls to the island this morning. Pressures are rising rapidly, and the storm is almost over for Bermuda. No injuries or major damage has been reported from Bermuda thus far, though Igor's waves are being blamed for two deaths in the Caribbean, one on Puerto Rico and one on St. Croix.

Igor is headed northeastward, out to sea, but will pass close enough to southeast Newfoundland to bring tropical storm force winds there on Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Igor as seen by the International Space Station at 9:56 am EDT September 14, 2010. At the time, Igor was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. This image ranks as one of the top-five most spectacular hurricane images ever taken from space, in my mind. To see the full-size image, visit the NASA Earth Observatory web site.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a well-defined surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and downdrafts created by mid-level dry air getting ingested into the storm are creating surface arc clouds on the west side of the storm, as seen in recent visible satellite loops. 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and the amount of thunderstorm activity will have to increase in order for this system to be considered a tropical depression. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and most of the major forecast models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 80% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi hits China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong this morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Fanapi was the strongest typhoon so far this season, peaking at Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds shortly before weakening to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds when it hit northern Taiwan early Sunday morning, local time. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

A remarkably quiet Western Pacific typhoon season and Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. Before Fanapi, the strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. According to statistics forwarded to me by NOAA meteorologist Paul Stanko on Guam, by this point in an ordinary typhoon season, we should have had 17 named storms, 11 typhoons, and 2 super supertyphoons (winds of 150+ mph.) This year, we've had just 11 named storms, 5 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record low for a typhoon season was 18 named storms (set in 1998), 9 typhoons (set in 1998), and no supertyphoons (set in 1974.) We have a chance of beating all of these records this year. The peak date for the Western Pacific typhoon season is August 28, so we are well past the peak.

It's a similar story out in the Eastern Pacific, where a near-record quiet hurricane season is occurring. So far there have been 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Ordinarily, we should have had 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricane by this point in the season. Since reliable satellite records of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity began in 1970, the quietest season on record was 1977, when just 8 named storms occurred. The fewest hurricanes occurred in 2007 (four), and there have been two years with no intense hurricanes. The peak of Eastern Pacific hurricane season is around August 25, and on average we can expect just 3 more named storms this year. Thus, we could set records for the fewest named storms and hurricanes this year.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in China at 5:15 UTC on September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1632. hydrus
Quoting centex:
Who said we wanted rain? Maybe we did a month ago, but that is history. I don’t like the persistent surface trough hanging out so long, it’s like it will not go away until something develops.
lol...Somebody on here a while back was whining that it was a desert at his location, and he wanted a tropical system to"alleviate" the situation...Well, you know the rest. However, on a serious note. You folks might be in for another really wet system. I am concerned because I have friends there. Ifyou look closely at the GEM model, there is really no let up in the current pattern, hence more rain...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
GrITs= GRavity wave Interaction with Tornadoes
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1629. JLPR2
Quoting cat5hurricane:
It's been the year of the male. Alex, Earl, Igor... Not liking sound of 'Matthew' either.


You forgot Karl XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8666
What a system.



And forecast sounding from pink area of strongest winds on east side:

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1626. centex
They already have floater with name AL14. It's a done deal.
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1614. anyotherliestotell 2:01 AM GMT on September 21, 2010

I acknowledge that some do that, but seriously you claim those that are knowledgeable do that too.

For the record, unfortunately storms do take lives and they do bad things to places, just because someone forecasts a storm to hit an area does not mean doom and gloom. I am tired of people not being allowed to have an opinion on here. As long as that opinion is backed up with some facts; which most are; then they do not deserve to be chastised

You chastise people regardless of what they say and regardless of what evidence they show to support their claim. For that reason I take what you say and basically laugh at it every single time. You come across to me as someone who knows very little about weather, but knows a whole lot about getting under peoples' skin.

There is your TRUTH
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1622. srada
Quoting will40:
Girls Rock In The South= GRITS


Cosign!!
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


¿Dicen donde piensan que irá?
What happened, do they detected something? Me gustaria saber, solo curiosidad.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't be surprised if 14L skips TD status and goes straight for Lisa (although unlikely considering the NHC). They convective organization and structure along with the satellite appearance/presentation is certainly that of a intensifying low-end tropical storm.


They might (and probably should). But I can only think of one otther time this season they've gone ahead of the ATCF; every other time that I can recall, the NHC has lagged behind. With that in mind, while it may happen at 11, it'll probably happen at 5AM...taht is, after ATCF names it at 2:3o or so.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
1617. centex
AL14 Floater

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Quoting srada:


I mean seriously..the nerve to talk trash about grits!! they are about to start a new north and south movement..LOL!!
See 1596. And that'll teach you not to give out good advice. LOL
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Quoting hydrus:
I hope so..But with today,s genetic techies out there who knows...You all on the Caymans might be in for a long duration of bad weather.
Keep praying they somehow manage to miss us but don't hold out much hope. In the past 10 years only 2006 we did not have anything come close to us.
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1610. JLPR2
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC is a little interesting..Link


It actually acknowledges the existence of Lisa, LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8666
Here's some of the flooding left behind by Major Hurricane Karl. Although the hurricane was rather compact in size, it has already resulted in 16 deaths.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
1590. anyotherliestotell 1:52 AM GMT on September 21, 2010

how you have not been banned in light of recent events is beyond me.

You never have anything of value to say, you just sarcastically scoff at peoples' comments to get a rise out of them. It is people like you that are the main problem here.

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Quoting bjdsrq:
GFS putting the monster ghost storm back in the GOM and into Tampa bay first week of October.


Link please???
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15877
Good night all. The morning comes too quickly.

Leaving with my quote of the day:
Do not argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.

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I wouldn't be surprised if 14L skips TD status and goes straight for Lisa (although unlikely considering the NHC). They convective organization and structure along with the satellite appearance/presentation is certainly that of a intensifying low-end tropical storm.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
1599. centex
Quoting hydrus:
mOre potential rain for Texas and Mexico..They wanted rain, they got it...
Who said we wanted rain? Maybe we did a month ago, but that is history. I don’t like the persistent surface trough hanging out so long, it’s like it will not go away until something develops.
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1598. leddyed
Quoting Neapolitan:


S/he had the "honor" of being the first on my (still) very short ignore list. I suggest you do the same. :-)

Same here. Just someone looking for attention.
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1595. JLPR2
12 years ago today, the residents of the Leeward Islands were bracing for Hurricane Georges, which would early in the 21st make it's first of many landfalls in the island of Antigua.

Ironically 1998 had the same list of names this year has and is a close analog year, Gaston was supposed to be something close to the second coming of Georges but thankfully it fell apart.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8666
1594. hydrus
Quoting Hurricanes101:
1574. anyotherliestotell 1:47 AM GMT on September 21, 2010

Some of the strongest storms in the Atlantic Basin have occurred in October, seriously you have no clue what you are talking about

Flora killed 8,000 people in 1963, Mitch killed over 10,000 in 1998, Wilma was the most intense hurricane in the history of the Atlantic Basin in 2005

There are many more examples
Yeah, like the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. Hurricane Wilma- Late October-2005 882 mb,s. yeah..lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
Quoting hydrus:
I am originally from Ma and Pa.
Aren't we all ? LOL
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1591. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:
We still haven't had a 99L develop, it's the only number with that luck.

jajajaja is true
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Then you never had cheese grits, or mixed in with your sunny side ups and hash browns. :)


The only way I can eat them is to heavily douse them in maple syrup.
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1588. hydrus
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am originally from Pa. but when we moved to Florida I fell in love with grits mixed with the sunny side ups. My mother(a true blue yankee) thought they were the most disgusting thing but she doesn't know what she missed. Can't get good grits down here.
I am originally from Ma and Pa.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
1574. anyotherliestotell 1:47 AM GMT on September 21, 2010

Some of the strongest storms in the Atlantic Basin have occurred in October, seriously you have no clue what you are talking about

Flora killed 8,000 people in 1963, Mitch killed over 10,000 in 1998, Wilma was the most intense hurricane in the history of the Atlantic Basin in 2005

There are many more examples
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I dont like "Matthew".

"Matthew" is going to be mean.


If it's anything like me it won't be a problem at all, but if it's like the other Matthew's I know look out!
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1585. hydrus
mOre potential rain for Texas and Mexico..They wanted rain, they got it...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
Quoting PcolaDan:


Then you never had cheese grits, or mixed in with your sunny side ups and hash browns. :)
I am originally from Pa. but when we moved to Florida I fell in love with grits mixed with the sunny side ups. My mother(a true blue yankee) thought they were the most disgusting thing but she doesn't know what she missed. Can't get good grits down here.
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1583. beell
Quoting centex:
Good evening fellow bloggers. New season, change in TC formation zone, and new location appropriate avatar.

Brushy Creek Lake, Cedar Park, Texas, 5 days after Hermine dump. Don't mess with Texas. Glad the post Karl weak sfc trough that's been hanging out forever has for most part kept rain south and east.




SRV!
Good!
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I'm about to start seriously 'ing some of y'alls post...There is absolutely no call for talking trash about Grits or GRITS!!! I like 'em both alot!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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