Igor spares Bermuda; Fanapi hits China; exceptionally quiet in the Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

The core of Category 1 Hurricane Igor passed approximately 40 miles west of Bermuda at 11 pm AST last night, bringing winds just below hurricane force to the island. Winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 68 mph, gusting to 93 mph, at 11:22 pm AST last night. Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph began at 10 am AST on Sunday, and were still present as of 9:38 am AST (44 mph, gusting to 53 mph.) Bermuda radar shows that the core of Igor is now well past Bermuda, with only a few spiral bands to the south that will bring occasional rain squalls to the island this morning. Pressures are rising rapidly, and the storm is almost over for Bermuda. No injuries or major damage has been reported from Bermuda thus far, though Igor's waves are being blamed for two deaths in the Caribbean, one on Puerto Rico and one on St. Croix.

Igor is headed northeastward, out to sea, but will pass close enough to southeast Newfoundland to bring tropical storm force winds there on Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Igor as seen by the International Space Station at 9:56 am EDT September 14, 2010. At the time, Igor was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. This image ranks as one of the top-five most spectacular hurricane images ever taken from space, in my mind. To see the full-size image, visit the NASA Earth Observatory web site.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a well-defined surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and downdrafts created by mid-level dry air getting ingested into the storm are creating surface arc clouds on the west side of the storm, as seen in recent visible satellite loops. 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and the amount of thunderstorm activity will have to increase in order for this system to be considered a tropical depression. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and most of the major forecast models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 80% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi hits China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong this morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Fanapi was the strongest typhoon so far this season, peaking at Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds shortly before weakening to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds when it hit northern Taiwan early Sunday morning, local time. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

A remarkably quiet Western Pacific typhoon season and Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. Before Fanapi, the strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. According to statistics forwarded to me by NOAA meteorologist Paul Stanko on Guam, by this point in an ordinary typhoon season, we should have had 17 named storms, 11 typhoons, and 2 super supertyphoons (winds of 150+ mph.) This year, we've had just 11 named storms, 5 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record low for a typhoon season was 18 named storms (set in 1998), 9 typhoons (set in 1998), and no supertyphoons (set in 1974.) We have a chance of beating all of these records this year. The peak date for the Western Pacific typhoon season is August 28, so we are well past the peak.

It's a similar story out in the Eastern Pacific, where a near-record quiet hurricane season is occurring. So far there have been 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Ordinarily, we should have had 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricane by this point in the season. Since reliable satellite records of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity began in 1970, the quietest season on record was 1977, when just 8 named storms occurred. The fewest hurricanes occurred in 2007 (four), and there have been two years with no intense hurricanes. The peak of Eastern Pacific hurricane season is around August 25, and on average we can expect just 3 more named storms this year. Thus, we could set records for the fewest named storms and hurricanes this year.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in China at 5:15 UTC on September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2532 - 2482

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Looks like trouble coming into the GOM!

Tropical Update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We could be seeing another major hurricane by friday, woohoo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Shoots the gap??? SHIPS is currently using BAMM for steering, which at the end has it over Guatemala Belize.


Oh, I got that. I was thinking if the steering was off on a a 84 hour forcast. Like thats never happened.
Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1602
Quoting GS121:
no facts at the moment but it seems disney world has escaped almost any moderate to significant damage since they opened in the early 1970s. kinda hard to believe isn't it?


That is because Disney builds their buildings to a high code. All electrical needs are underground. By the time any storm gets there (even Charley) they are ready for it. They do a great job keeping guests safe, too.

At least I hope all of that is true...I will be there next weekend. HA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobinTampa:


there's a bay in the Tampa Bay area?


Go figure...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2525. MahFL
Quoting Cotillion:


What's Thursday?


Truecast Thursday ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2523. markot
bamm steering is usually wrong.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting markot:
tampa has not had a major since 1921!!!! a cat 4, would almost be catastrophic... you have to realize there is a bay in tampa.....


there's a bay in the Tampa Bay area?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
too funny, LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SuperYooper:


Just a bit north of most of the models and it shoots the gap. Yikes.


Shoots the gap??? SHIPS is currently using BAMM for steering, which at the end has it over Guatemala Belize.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2519. markot
tampa has not had a major since 1921!!!! a cat 4, would almost be catastrophic... you have to realize there is a bay in tampa.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
....remember it vividly,they were forecasting pinellis county to be 2 islands(the most densely populated county in fl)....tampa bay area has a extreme risk to surge from any tc striking just north,piling water from the sw into the bay and flooding the entire downtown area....


That would be the plan...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is a logical explanation as to why Jim Cantore has the power to divert hurricanes away from him. It has to do with the hot air mass residing inside him, and the effects it has on the ridge. In short, Jim is able to reinforce the ridge with his hot air keeping Hurricanes away from whichever location he might be. It has also being noted that he is capable of creating high pressure zones where there were none before. This phenomena is known as the Cantore Effect. So rest assure that is Jim Cantore is in your area, Due to the Cantore Effect we wont need to worry about a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
I posted the following earlier: with Lisa, we now have seen--of course--six September storms (and there's a likely-busy ten days left in the month). That means this year has seen more September action than any years since the current "active" period began in 1995 except for '98 and '00, which both birthed seven, and '02 and '07, which both saw eight.

However...while it may not happen this year, it's interesting to note that of those four years that produced 30 named September storms among them, their followup Octobers managed to only come up with six altogether. Even more interesting: the two years with eight-storm Septembers managed to only come up with one single paltry October storm between them. IOW, there seems to be--at least on the surface of things--an inverse relationship going: the more September storms a season has, the fewer October storms that follow. But again, with things as they are this year--particularly the as-yet untapped heat in the Caribbean--one senses that October probably won't be a similar bust this year.

As always: guess we'll have to wait and see...


I'm betting on it happening again. That said, still expect 3 storms (alongside Matthew who'll run into October, probably) in the month with a November or December straggler.

5 or 6-4-1 left (including Lisa) - that's where I put my flag.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Goldenblack
"Here is your vorticity map....its got some going"

Thank you!

Seems most systems down there this season have had to fight off dry air until they get near the yucatan. If it gets organized a day or two before what Hermine did, look out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Update Sept. 21st. 2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back later. BFN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I posted the following earlier: with Lisa, we now have seen--of course--six September storms (and there's a likely-busy ten days left in the month). That means this year has seen more September action than any years since the current "active" period began in 1995 except for '98 and '00, which both birthed seven, and '02 and '07, which both saw eight.

However...while it may not happen this year, it's interesting to note that of those four years that produced 30 named September storms among them, their followup Octobers managed to only come up with six altogether. Even more interesting: the two years with eight-storm Septembers managed to only come up with one single paltry October storm between them. IOW, there seems to be--at least on the surface of things--an inverse relationship going: the more September storms a season has, the fewer October storms that follow. But again, with things as they are this year--particularly the as-yet untapped heat in the Caribbean--one senses that October probably won't be a similar bust this year.

As always: guess we'll have to wait and see...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
2507. Squid28
Quoting Cotillion:
Hmm, it loops over Guatemala?

That isn't good.


Not good at all Guatemala has already had torrential rains recentley, additional water and winds is definitely not what they need. Reminds me of the humanitarian disater after Mitch in that part of the world, very sad. Lets pray that it does not repeat....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
6Z GFS @ 87 hrs.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Anyone with a Vortice map of future 95L? That system down there has one heck of feeder band on its west side arcing up along the Antilles.


Here is your vorticity map....its got some going

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
SHIPS is insane. 137mph in 120 hrs. Oh man.



Just a bit north of most of the models and it shoots the gap. Yikes.
Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1602
Hmm, it loops over Guatemala?

That isn't a good track from one of the BAMMs.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Anyone with a Vortice map of future 95L? That system down there has one heck of feeder band on its west side arcing up along the Antilles.


It is officially 95L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2497. scott39
Is 95L going to Mexico? J/K
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jax82:
I predict a storm will form by the end of October in the Caribbean and make its way into the Gulf, and threaten anywhere from Brownsville to Key West. :) It could be a tropical storm, a Cat 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5. It may get picked up by a trof, it may not. The name of it may be Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie or Walter. Chances are it will spin counter-clockwise. There will be east-casters, west-casters, north-casters and dooms-casters. But one thing is for sure, and that is Jim Cantore will be there, and everyone will be saved!


I predict that on each year including this one during the months of June until November at least a Major hurricane will form on planet earth and hit land and take at least one home down. I know I will not be eating crow on this one LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone with a Vortice map of future 95L? That system down there has one heck of feeder band on its west side arcing up along the Antilles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHIPS blows 95L up into a CAT 4.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, So the models are showing it hit land?


Yes they do. 95L is shown with two lives. The first is a cyclone that enters Nicaragua and spins down some. It then exits into the Gulf of Honduras where it meanders around for some time and reorganises.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHIPs going insane on a Caribbean storm is hardly new.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2487. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:
SHIPS is insane. 137mph in 120 hrs. Oh man.

Whats up with the kicks to the S at the end???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Happy Independence Day! Have fun.
Thank You . We will have a lot of fun its a beautiful day here today . Let us just not focus on what ships has in store for Belize in 5 days . A catagory 4 Hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L will be a tropical storm in 2 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2532 - 2482

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
77 °F
Overcast