A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2470. LeMoyne
10:17 AM GMT on September 21, 2010
Can see both eye and this verrry interesting scratch across the hurricane on wide view and Rainbow (prolly all views) ...



My take on the scratch is two opposing vortices dropped into the eye (with slight expansion of eye) opposing balance/conserve angular momentum. I take that as another sign of growth.

EDIT:
del-I'm betting growth and E/ESE ...del
EDIT BELOW:

Missed the stupendous growth phase while writing.

Mark of Thor @ 745



Probably sounded like it to the Cap Verdeans

Keeps getting bigger but looks to be trying to close off the eye (can see curve)

@ 1015 UTC (5am EDT?)



Spoking and center clearly at or near 16.5N 30.5 W where she started the day.

For the sake of the Cap Verdeans I hope Lisa settles into a nice quiet annular hurricane and starts West.

Now I think may back up a little more then go WSW - along the flow lines...
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
2469. LeMoyne
9:34 AM GMT on September 21, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:re: Update @ 2454




The zoo of models (lol -like that) starts on the west side of the storm - Lisa landed after disaster, stabilized and showed center off and on today NW of 31W 15N and shows eye now at



30.5W 16.5N @645 - 0715
Initial direction N - movement in response to moisture flow under and from all around to over and back to storm - can see flow is arriving on NW quad by constant firing there - also movement is from growing and turning main axis NW/SE.

N side of eye all visible with edge outflow drifting SE - shows 1/4 to 1/3 degree eye
Eye has apparent diameter of some few miles ...

30.3W 16.5N @745 Clear eye means solid outflow



CIMSS says water is 28 seems to be working so far (not cool).

also Lisa's ADT >3.5 - I say definitely 4 : has gron and was funky/max ADT for 4 hours before 345 measurement both measurements have constraint of 0.2 per hour increase as if new storm - Lisa is 48 hours old (rough but challenging = opportunity filled hours). Lisa Phoenix luckily fit right back into kink of ideal WSW-ENE flow boundary tho she worked for it too - (now has wide LL conv UL div) Connected with LL convergent flow established yesterday (continuing nicely now) while forming absolutely classic storm shape. This storm is established and ready to grow. - lol - 94 L IS A grower.

Model may easily go wrong from incorrect IC for position, energy/power and momentum.

I guess Lisa to maybe back and circle some more in response to local flow, nudge from front to S and growth.
From dimples even more sure that Lisa will back E and cirle S a bit as N Arm flexes N

Then she'll smoothly power W or crawl down the dry line WSW (tilted axis) as a major at or below 17 N ...

We will see ... lol - this has been your nightly disaster cast.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
2468. whepton3
1:53 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
I sure hope we don't see a Wilma path... 110 mph winds at my house. Had to get a new roof!
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
2467. MahFL
1:42 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
"10:20am MONDAY: 28,700 of us without power this morning but we're all still here and in good shape. Police are assessing the roads and are asking people to stay off them until they've been cleared of debris. The Causeway is still closed and will be assessed for any damage before reopening."
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3547
2466. mbjjm
1:30 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
AAXX 20124 78016 11432 82437 10245 20228 39942 49946 52094 60031 76162 887// 333 10271 20231 70734 90926

Past 24 hrs ending 7am Bermuda airport reporting 73.4mm.....2.89inches

Igor was not so big on rainfall . 2.9inches is a relatively small amount of rainfall for a hurricane. They can have this amount with cold front or trough.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
2465. Neapolitan
1:30 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
2464. pottery
1:30 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Looking at the loops of the 2 areas around the Carib. Islands...
The one east (between 50-60W) is gaining some convection now, and the other one at around 70W is losing some.
Not surprising, when you look at the WV loops, and upper level winds.

The 50-60 one is still trapped in the ITCZ, and is trending west or even a little south of that, while 70W is feeling the pull north toward PR and the DomRep courtesy of Igor.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
2463. wayfaringstranger
1:30 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting whepton3:


You got it...

everyone is talking like the game is about to change in the western atlantic... are these two storms setting up along 15N the beginning?
Thats what I am seeing but it looks like the GFS is either the outlier or all the other models are seeing something that the GFS isnt...
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
2461. angiest
1:28 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting Goldenblack:
Jeff I was looking at the models this morning. I see the CMC (constantly making cyclones) and the NoGAPs are hinting at a Carribean storm to influence Florida from the west, but are you taking about a system coming from the Bahamas? Which models?



6Z GFS shows a storm forming in the Caribbean, moving north through the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and making landfall near the GA/SC border.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2460. Orcasystems
1:27 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Thanks ORCA! Ill Meet you at Seaworld Some time.


I may be tame...but I am not that tame :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2458. Goldenblack
1:24 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Support has been sporadic, but there constantly. I would have to agree that the US focus should be shifting a bit toward the Caribbean.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


I think we will see a track like a Wilma. Don't know if is the potential system we're speaking of now or another one in October. I very much believe that 2 storms are going to threaten the area from FL to Miss.
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 706
2456. hydrus
1:23 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
COTILLION- RE post# 2421...That was a very good read..Thank you for it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
2455. Goldenblack
1:23 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Jeff I was looking at the models this morning. I see the CMC (constantly making cyclones) and the NoGAPs are hinting at a Carribean storm to influence Florida from the west, but are you taking about a system coming from the Bahamas? Which models?

Quoting Jeff9641:


It will roar back tomorrow and definitly later this week as a trough plows in from the Bahamas. This could be the rain before the big hurricane the models are predicting to hit FL.
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 706
2454. Orcasystems
1:22 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2451. angiest
1:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Good morning, here is my update on the storm GFS has been developing in the Caribbean in a week:
Link
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2449. whepton3
1:19 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Good morning. Been out of the loop since Friday.

I noticed that the GFS model has changed again since last Thursday and now has gone away from a St Pete storm to something developing in the Carribean and hitting SC. I'll believe it when I see it though.

Could someone email me the info for Storm's new blog?

DestinJ and FLdewey good morning. Good morning Ike.


You got it...

everyone is talking like the game is about to change in the western atlantic... are these two storms setting up along 15N the beginning?
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
2445. divdog
1:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Chances of a Florida Hit this Year?
?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
2444. breald
1:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Hello all!! Are the models still showing a up the coast storm?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
2443. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Is the **Pattern** Changing?
yep keep yer head up and yer eyes wide open
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
2441. mbinmo
1:12 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting apocalyps:
Keep safe people in florida


it would be but he's talking about igor.
Member Since: April 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
2440. stillwaiting
1:11 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
I know..It is always much cooler in Brooksville..I have always wondered why...I do like that area, and almost all the areas to the north too Crystal River, Cedar keys..Etc
...,topogrophy and inland location, i believe brooksville has some of the highest elevation in central/south fl....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
2439. MahFL
1:11 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Still 41 mph winds at Bermuda Airport.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3547
2438. wayfaringstranger
1:11 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Good morning. Been out of the loop since Friday.

I noticed that the GFS model has changed again since last Thursday and now has gone away from a St Pete storm to something developing in the Carribean and hitting SC. I'll believe it when I see it though.

Could someone email me the info for Storm's new blog?

DestinJ and FLdewey good morning. Good morning Ike.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
2437. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:09 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Have you ever seen a larger 12 foot seas area then Igor right now?

1400 NM right now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
2436. SuperYooper
1:08 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting BLee2333:


Why do they call it an Omega type block, the shape?


Omega blocks are so-named because the height fields associated with them resemble an Ω, the uppercase Greek letter omega. The typical pattern for this is low-high-low, arranged in the west-east direction. Here is a pic from 2006.
Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1603
2435. BobinTampa
1:08 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting FLdewey:

There is a 10% chance a storm of 30kts or greater will affect at least 10 Florida counties.


But there's only a 10% chance of that. :)

vague Naked Gun reference...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 536
2434. TampaTom
1:06 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


So Chances are Florida Might Get another Wilma. As a Front or Trough picks up a Storm in the carribean and Pulls it N Then NE?


'Tis the season for storms coming west to east across Florida's west coast... the risk is high through Halloween...
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
2433. BobinTampa
1:06 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
I usually go up to play golf at World Woods in Brooksville around Thanksgiving. Several times I've left Tampa bright and early with the temp around 55. When I got to World Woods, our tee time was delayed due to frost.



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2431. Thundercloud01221991
1:06 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Have you ever seen a larger 12 foot seas area then Igor right now?

1400 NM right now
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
2429. weathermanwannabe
1:05 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Back to work.........See Yall this afternoon.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9231
2427. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:04 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Action should start shifting to the West soon (as discussed here early last week) and the biggest question I have is whether the Caribbean or Gulf will spawn any "majors" in October or early November......Guess it will all depend on what SST's look like at that time in those regions me thinks.
rocket fuel

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
2425. WxLogic
1:04 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting BLee2333:


Why do they call it an Omega type block, the shape?


Correct... because of the shape.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
2424. hydrus
1:03 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting BobinTampa:


Low in Tampa was around 72 this a.m. Brooksville area is normally about 10 degrees cooler. So I wouldn't be totally shocked with low 60s in that area.
I know..It is always much cooler in Brooksville..I have always wondered why...I do like that area, and almost all the areas to the north too Crystal River, Cedar keys..Etc
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
2422. WxLogic
1:03 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting futuremet:
I am surprised that the 0z ECMWF operational run expects this system to miss the longwave trough.


I doubt that ii can miss it... the TROF is deep enough, but of course it is possible assuming the disturbance takes shape over the extreme western Carib close to Yucatan as it could potentially get trapped. Notice how GFS actually develops the system further E from where ECMWF is trying to develop it.

Of course this all remains to be seen as the weak progresses and ingredients come together.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
2421. Cotillion
1:02 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
The interesting part is there,s a lot of potential storm development out in the Atlantic Basin...I have a hunch we will be tracking more dangerous hurricanes..even though we have had considerable activity so far..


Yes, quite possible. Here was my thoughts from yesterday about the rest of the season reiterated:

A look at the 7 other Nino-to-Nina seasons since 1950:

1964: At this point, we were in the middle of Gladys at her strongest. 9-4-4 was the total (remember, the first two tropical storms were nameless). 3-2-2 was left in the season, including Hilda and Isbell. Hilda forming in late Sept going into early Oct; Isbell being a mid Oct storm; TS12 was a mid November TS. Landfalls: All three (Hilda - Gulf Coast; Isbell - Florida; TS12 - Central America). Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1.

1970: We just had TS Felice, leaving the season at 7-3-2. 3-2-0 remained for the season. TS Greta was in late Sept to early Oct; Hurricanes 9 & 10 were Central Atlantic storms in October. Landfalls: One (Greta hitting Yucatan, Florida Keys). Sep 1, Oct 2, Nov 0.

1973: Ellen was in the Atlantic, 6-1-1 (inc one STS). 2-1-0 remained. Fran and Gilda in October. Landfalls: One (Gilda hitting Cuba and Bahamas). Sep 0, Oct 2, Nov 0.

1988: Gilbert was dying off, Helene was forming: 8-2-1, Helene taking it up to 9-3-2. 3-1-1 left for the season. Helene was a powerful Cape Verde in the Central Atlantic in September. Isaac was late Sept to early Oct, Joan hitting Nicaragua as a powerful storm in October, Keith rounding out the season. Landfalls: Three (Isaac in Lesser Antilles, Joan - Central America, Keith - Mexico and Florida). (not inc Helene, also Sep) Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1.

1995: Marilyn was in the Atlantic, 13-7-3 at that time. 6-4-2 left for the season; Noel and Opal remained in September, Pablo through to Tanya in October. Tanya extended into first few days of November. Landfalls: 3 (Opal - Mexico, Gulf Coast; Roxanne - Mexico; Sebastien - Lesser Antilles). Sep 2, Oct 4.

1998: Georges and Hermine in the Atlantic. Ivan forming shortly. 8-3-2, Ivan taking it to 9-4-2. 5-5-1 left for the season. Past Ivan, Cape Verde season still going with Jeanne and Karl. Mitch was the unfortunate vocal point left, being a Category 5 and causing damage beyond what most people could ever fathom. Landfalls: 1 (Mitch - Central America). Sep 2, Oct 2, Nov 1.

2007: Amazing, there was a lull in September and we were in it 3 years ago. Humberto and Ingrid had gone and Jerry was next. 9-3-2 on the doors. 6-3-0 left. Cape Verde season still to spit out notorious Karen. Lorenzo going under RI in the BoC. Noel was the main focal point with his damage to the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. Landfalls: 3 (Lorenzo - Mexico, Noel - Cuba, Bahamas, Haiti; Olga - Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic). Sep 4, Oct 1, Nov 0 (Dec 1).

--

Taking an average of all those 7, you're left with 4-3-1. Now, that's on the low side, particularly taking into account the last 3 seasons.

Take the mean road of the last 3...

You're left with 5 or 6-4-1.

That leaves us with... 16 or 17-9-6. Which is already very high, but that's roughly the numbers to expect for the rest of the season.

Now, recall that 2005 had only 11 storms left from this date onwards, although we were in the midst of Hurricane Rita. It was 17-10-5 at this point, with 11-5-2 remaining. Even if that were to replicate, we'd only just manage to reach the 20 storm mark. In essence, it is very unlikely to see a 'T' or 'W' storm this year. 'Richard' is likely to be the last.

Furthermore, even in the quieter seasons, landfalls were still coming. Of those 5 to 6 storms left, I'd expect at least half to end in a landfall of some kind.

In one's own humble opinion, naturally...

Feel free to agree or disagree.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2420. BobinTampa
1:02 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Chances of a Florida Hit this Year?


either 0% or 100%. Just have to wait and see which one it is.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 536

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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