A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The number shall be 3. The sacred number for the holy hand grenade.


Do you throw ON 3, or is it 1,2,3, throw? I never could figure that one out.
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Quoting xcool:


lol
....not the first time we've seen that track from the gfs,i wouldn't laugh,matter of fact i wouldn't discount that track one bit!!!
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2068. pottery
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The number shall be 3. The sacred number for the holy hand grenade.

You are sure?
The number between 2 & 4???
heheheheh

tomorrow....
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
do you want to hear about my avitar insecurities!!??


lol......how does that make you feel??
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2066. NRAamy
Night night, Pott!!!
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2065. Seawall
Jeez, after looking everything over, I think I'll stay here for information. It's the best. I just love DestJeff and Dewey.. you guys have a sense of humor that is incredible.
Keep everything up you guys, you're the best!
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Ok, yes, think we all know how worthless track forecasts are 300hrs out...But this just has to be a joke...The 00z wants to take said storm up the E coast of Fla to the Carolinas, back south, then across Ga to reemerge in the Gulf and run around the coast there for a few days...That scenario would sure help everyone that wants to here no more mention of Sai...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16504
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Yes, some integral parts of my comments have not appeared as well. Not happy though.


lol...I thought that was just happening to me. IE here at work computers so I am used to it not working right.....and am completely suprised every time it does post properly...lol
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2062. pottery
Rumblings in the sky to my east.
Time for bed....

have fun, and stay safe.
(is that a contradiction?)
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Quoting pottery:

You have to count to three.
Did'nt you know that LOL?
The number shall be 3. The sacred number for the holy hand grenade.
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2060. NRAamy
Who??!! The Oregon Ducks!! Their football team beat USC last year!!!!!!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Would you like to talk to someone about your avatar insecurities???
do you want to hear about my avitar insecurities!!??
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2058. xcool


lmao hit sc head back in gom .



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Dang! What is up with this blog. It's eating my posts.
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Quoting NRAamy:
PAC West? Works for me!!! Bring on the Oregon Ducks mascot!!!!

:)


Who??
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2055. hydrus
Quoting StormJunkie:




Sort of what I figured, was more wondering what the scale or relation was. And also if the 156hr frame is just the GFS freaking out...What, with all those 2's scattered across the ATl.

Those numbers are so tiny, I cannot see them to try and sum them up!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Syntax Error....Reboot!!
Yes, some integral parts of my comments have not appeared as well. Not happy though.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
2053. pottery
Quoting weatherwart:
Testing. One. Is this thing on?

You have to count to three.
Did'nt you know that LOL?
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Quoting hydrus:
It is measuring vorticity S.J.




Sort of what I figured, was more wondering what the scale or relation was. And also if the 156hr frame is just the GFS freaking out...What, with all those 2's scattered across the ATl.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16504
What was I thinking, I had to modify that comment to Trillion LOL
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Hey PrivateI I was going to ask you if you said Wahoo at that time but the caption makes that kind of redundant.
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Quoting weatherwart:
Testing. One. Is this thing on?


Syntax Error....Reboot!!
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2048. xcool


lol
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2047. JLPR2
94L refiring a little.
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Testing. One. Is this thing on?
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2045. hydrus
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


DOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!
Maybe, Maybe not.
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I think we'll be okay secretly I think that our wonderful administration in DC spent some of that $14 TRILLION on a hurricane shield for the USA LOL
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Would you like to talk to someone about your avatar insecurities???
Nice
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
I mentioned 12n 50w this morning it now looks to be at 12n 55w. All the ingredients are there when it gets closer to 60w I don't think Igor will will have as great influence. This is the ghost storm IMO. Might make next weekend a little more interesting then most think. Vorticity is increasing along with water vapor.
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2041. NRAamy
PAC West? Works for me!!! Bring on the Oregon Ducks mascot!!!!

:)
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2040. xcool







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2039. hydrus
Quoting StormJunkie:
Anyone in here that can explain what the numbers on the 850mb GFS forecast mean?
It is measuring vorticity S.J.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


That could only be a test if I knew the answer...lol
I believe you have mail.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
i am sticking with Pac west stereotypes...but I am tired of the unabomber..here is a real pic of me an a fish...from 20 years ago!


Would you like to talk to someone about your avatar insecurities???
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Quoting hydrus:
Yes..It is scheduled to haunt us in about a weeks time.


DOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Schoolie, why must we pass a test now? lol


That could only be a test if I knew the answer...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16504
2034. hydrus
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Seems kinda tranquil in here tonight.... Any more info on the ghost storm of the Caribbean?
Yes..It is scheduled to haunt us in about a weeks time.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Anyone in here that can explain what the numbers on the 850mb GFS forecast mean?
Schoolie, why must we pass a test now? lol
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Northen Puerto Rico surf beaches were full today, Winds offshore, Thanks to IGOR

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I will scan my old pics and post them of taking water over the bow on the USS Siapan in the north atlantic in August of 1986...Charley


Wow - you had to have been in what, 50' seas to take water over that ship?  Yikes


I'd like to see a pic of this BDA house tomorrow:


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Quoting NRAamy:
What's up with the Unibomber?!

Bring back the Darth Vader potato head!
i am sticking with Pac west stereotypes...but I am tired of the unabomber..here is a real pic of me an a fish...from 20 years ago!
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Seems kinda tranquil in here tonight.... Any more info on the ghost storm of the Caribbean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone in here that can explain what the numbers on the 850mb GFS forecast mean?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16504
2027. xcool
174hrs two lows in sw cab...
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I will scan my old pics and post them of taking water over the bow on the USS Siapan in the north atlantic in August of 1986...Charley


love to see that....Siapan Amphib??
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2025. hydrus
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Seems like just about every storm this year has been the strongest, or biggest, or most for the date, or location, or whatever... The statistics have taken a beating this year.
lol ..That might continue a bit longer..It almost seems to be the norm these days..The World in a dynamic place..Almost anything is possible on da water planet.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


lol.....we need rain ....not necessarily tropical in nature!!
I was going to say "Becarful What You wish for" but you beat me to it LOL

Just from what the models are thinking we might get more rain than we all want....

Taco :o)
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Quoting NRAamy:
What is a threaty? Is it a girly threat?
Quoting NRAamy:
What is a threaty? Is it a girly threat?
Nice obs. LOL Crap, sorry for the double quote.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting hydrus:
You made a good observation..However, statistics are only numbers which have no control over actual events...


Seems like just about every storm this year has been the strongest, or biggest, or most for the date, or location, or whatever... The statistics have taken a beating this year.
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132hr...Moves 94 W until it completely loses it. Also has another "system" making landfall in Belize...

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16504
Igor is having a wide impact, even back to the islands, the British Virgin Islands, received copious amount of rains today that resulted in significant flooding! As the broad circulation draws moisture out of the SE Caribbean Sea. LinkTake a look at the link here!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.