A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2120. hydrus
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm going to sleep in 1-2-4, no 3, no.......
Night all.
G,night.
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2119. hydrus
Quoting sunlinepr:
Anyone knows where's the Off switch???

Yes..Its in the Indian Ocean. There,s a huge pit bull guarding the off switch for the next two weeks, or until the shear machine can start waxing these puppies.
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I'm going to sleep in 1-2-4, no 3, no.......
Night all.
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Quoting weatherwart:

Some of us just get hungry and wander off to make a ham sandwich.
Did someone say ham!!??
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Are you in P-cola?
No, sorry. Port St. Lucie. Treasure coast.
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2115. wjdow
Quoting NRAamy:
Don't be joking with my Ducks!!!!

;)



didn't the ducks win back to back ncaa baseball championships a few years back? so what if they don't have the best football team this year.
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Quoting hydrus:
The ones on this blog! Mr..Smarty-pants..
I believe you fit the bill perfectly. The TF setup was smooth. Just like KS.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
As long as we can keep each other interested. Like nature, it's unpredictable. But engaging, none the less. There are many who post with great knowledge. Dr. Maue for example, does not fear the dark.


Are you in P-cola?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
As long as we can keep each other interested. Like nature, it's unpredictable. But engaging, none the less. There are many who post with great knowledge. Dr. Maue for example, does not fear the dark.

Some of us just get hungry and wander off to make a ham sandwich.
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2111. hydrus
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
All I have to say is.....

All I have to say is, take in the raw and mighty power of Julia.....lol
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Quoting NRAamy:
Don't be joking with my Ducks!!!!

;)



Yes Maam...I have to be careful picking on teams anyways being an Alum of FSU with our recently glorious record...lol
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HurricaneIgor's heading had turned northward to (3.8degrees north of) NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of (0.6degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~12mph(~19.3km/h)

19Sep 03amGMT - - 28.2n64.7w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #44
19Sep 06amGMT - - 28.3n65.1w - - - 90mph - - 949mb - - #44A
19Sep 09amGMT - - 28.9n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45
19Sep 12pmGMT - - 29.6n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - NHC.Adv.#45A

19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.4n65.4w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #46
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.8n65.7w - - - 85mph - - 952mb - - #46A
19Sep 09pmGMT - - 31.5n65.9w - - - 80mph - - 951mb - - #47
20Sep 12amGMT - - 31.9n65.7w - - - 75mph - - 953mb - - #47A
20Sep 03amGMT - - 32.4n65.5w - - - 75mph - - 955mb - - #48

Copy&paste 28.2n64.7w, 28.3n65.1w, 28.9n65.3w, 29.6n65.3w, 30.4n65.4w-30.8n65.7w, 30.8n65.7w-31.5n65.9w, 31.5n65.9w-31.9n65.7w, 31.9n65.7w-32.4n65.5w, meo, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours
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Quoting Skyepony:


Broad low south of the yucatan in 156hrs.. The larger # are heights in M, smaller is vorticity & kts are the standard flags..



I'd bet they bought from Disney..

Had to come back & try & find a recent TRMM of Fanapi.. Ran across a fairly fresh TRMM of IGOR.


Thanks skye, but on the 156hr image...Why all the 2's scattered everywhere?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15891
Sheri, I'm going to go through this once for you, because quite honestly my fingers are tired of it at this point. Others have done it and others have paid the price for it too (self imploded on the blog). Example: Randrewl. On top of that, NO other featured blogger has done it. This is the second time SW has had an issue, and quite honestly...The first time was MUCH worse than this. Dr M is a very very nice guy who decided to give him a second chance. This community gave him a second chance. His monomania (see rule three here) caused him to self destruct and act like a complete fool on the Dr's blog. No one ran him off, he did it to himself.

Question...How many other featured bloggers post in this forum other than "Portlight" occasionally? Answer...None except for Master on a rare occasion. SW would have been better off staying in his own blog, but his monomania would not allow that.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15891
Quoting traumaboyy:


Rereading that book now...part of my throne room reading selection......that why I asked about it being Amphib.....you jarhead or navy puke??
I prefer "Devil Dog" and I was not a squid. :^) (I still have a flat-top LOL!)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2105. wjdow
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


He's not the only one that has done this on this blog. There have been many. People are just out to discriminate and down StormW anyway they can. And really it's makes them look just as bad. You know they talk down about him and they just can't stop, it really shows there motive.
I really hope everyone in Bermuda is safe tonight. Prayers goes out to everyone there.
sheri


yes, prayers to everyone in Bermuda.
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Anyone knows where's the Off switch???

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2103. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting StormJunkie:
Anyone in here that can explain what the numbers on the 850mb GFS forecast mean?


Broad low south of the yucatan in 156hrs.. The larger # are heights in m, smaller is vorticity & winds at 850mb in kts are the standard flags..

Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I think we'll be okay secretly I think that our wonderful administration in DC spent some of that $14 BILLION on a hurricane shield for the USA LOL


I'd bet they bought from Disney..

Had to come back & try & find a recent TRMM of Fanapi.. Ran across a fairly fresh TRMM of IGOR.
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2102. hydrus
Quoting traumaboyy:


Rereading that book now...part of my throne room reading selection......that why I asked about it being Amphib.....you jarhead or navy puke??
Navy Puke...Damn thats funny...
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Let's try this again (maybe it'll post this time).

How late does this crowd hang? I am transitioning back to night shift and I will be on for a while. This is by far the best group / time on the blog
As long as we can keep each other interested. Like nature, it's unpredictable. But engaging, none the less. There are many who post with great knowledge. Dr. Maue for example, does not fear the dark.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I just saw a cloud.....heading WEST!!!!


That wasn't a cloud. It was two swallows carrying a coconut.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Yeah one of the last amphibs with a real well deck. It gets blown up in"Red Storm Rising" if you are a Tom Clancy fan.


Rereading that book now...part of my throne room reading selection......that why I asked about it being Amphib.....you jarhead or navy puke??
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2098. xcool
JLPR2 i just used models for Entertainment always wait for development...
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2097. hydrus
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
MMMM... posts.... Wanted: straight man to set up jokes...
The ones on this blog! Mr..Smarty-pants..
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2096. NRAamy
Don't be joking with my Ducks!!!!

;)

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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Let's try this again (maybe it'll post this time.

How late does this crowd hang? I am transitioning back to night shift and I will be on for a while. This is by far the best group / time on the blog


We vary considerably PC...Something going on and someone is around all night...Nothing going on, it just depends on how good the comedy show is
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15891
Quoting CosmicEvents:
"First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch towards thy foe, who being naughty in My sight, shall snuff it." Amen.
.
.
I just saw a cloud.....heading WEST!!!!


Ah. Right-O.
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2092. xcool
noghost storm lol.
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Quoting wjdow:


experience or not, to everyone's detriment, he did lose his composure on this blog


He's not the only one that has done this on this blog. There have been many. People are just out to discriminate and down StormW anyway they can. And really it's makes them look just as bad. You know they talk down about him and they just can't stop, it really shows there motive.
I really hope everyone in Bermuda is safe tonight. Prayers goes out to everyone there.
sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2090. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 .i wait for cmc to seeing if jump on .


wise idea :D
But considering the system hasn't formed yet, this track should be completely different on the next run. XD
Also it has another Caribbean storm at the end of the run, Run for the Hills! LOL
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gfs seems to become more inaccurate as the time nears to the ghost storm
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2088. hydrus
Quoting taco2me61:
Ok all I'm out for the night.... 4:30am comes early and I need as much beauty sleep as I can get. But we all know it will not help.... blahahahahahaha....

Good Night All


Taco :o)
G,night Taco. ......Now i,m hungry...dam
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2087. xcool


getting readyy for more more storms.....
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
"First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch towards thy foe, who being naughty in My sight, shall snuff it." Amen.
.
.
I just saw a cloud.....heading WEST!!!!


ROFL!!!
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Ok all I'm out for the night.... 4:30am comes early and I need as much beauty sleep as I can get. But we all know it will not help.... blahahahahahaha....

Good Night All


Taco :o)
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Let's try this again (maybe it'll post this time).

How late does this crowd hang? I am transitioning back to night shift and I will be on for a while. This is by far the best group / time on the blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Igor and Earl ate up all the damn Wheaties..All that is left is posts..
MMMM... posts.... Wanted: straight man to set up jokes...
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Quoting pottery:
Rumblings in the sky to my east.
Time for bed....

have fun, and stay safe.
(is that a contradiction?)


Minor contradiction.
Have fun and be good. Now THAT is a contradiction. ;-)
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2081. xcool
JLPR2 .i wait for cmc to seeing if jump on .
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Quoting NRAamy:
Who??!! The Oregon Ducks!! Their football team beat USC last year!!!!!!


Just joking maam....my poor attempt at southern football humor!!

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Pottery I'd feel better if you just said don't do anything i wouldn't do. Well goodnight as well all.
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2078. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


lmao hit sc head back in gom .not make
sense,jmo




Seems the GFS sees a decrease in the amount of trofs and therefore builds a ridge over the US that sends the storm back west, weird...
So this fall will be short on fronts? xD
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2077. hydrus
Quoting weatherwart:
Dang! What is up with this blog. It's eating my posts.
Igor and Earl ate up all the damn Wheaties..All that is left is posts..
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High level clouds Africa

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Quoting pottery:
Rumblings in the sky to my east.
Time for bed....

have fun, and stay safe.
(is that a contradiction?)
I think it's a moral imperative.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting Bishopkembo:
Igor is having a wide impact, even back to the islands, the British Virgin Islands, received copious amount of rains today that resulted in significant flooding! As the broad circulation draws moisture out of the SE Caribbean Sea. LinkTake a look at the link here!

Hey Bishop - looks like ya'll had a ton of rain there and a lot of clean up tomorrow!

I'm having a hard time figuring out where the marina waters end on this pic, lol


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2072. wjdow
Quoting Relix:
Come on stop the StormW flaming, its childish and immature. He has more experience than most here so don't jump on top of him for that.


experience or not, to everyone's detriment, he did lose his composure on this blog
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Quoting traumaboyy:


love to see that....Siapan Amphib??
Yeah one of the last amphibs with a real well deck. It gets blown up in"Red Storm Rising" if you are a Tom Clancy fan.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The number shall be 3. The sacred number for the holy hand grenade.


Do you throw ON 3, or is it 1,2,3, throw? I never could figure that one out.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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