A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting traumaboyy:


don't give me too much credit....I do it for the money...lol

Now THAT IS FUNNY! Don't get me started on what is wrong with a society that pays teachers, police, first responders, firemen a pitance yet athletes and actors are paid millions. (sigh)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting traumaboyy:


You did good!

Cant figure out FSU this year....I am sure it will not be too great!

Mares tales and mackeral scales make tall ships trim their sails!!


They're young and will probably finish with 7 or eight wins. Will be a force to reckon with in a couple more years.

When was the last time a hurricane made landfall South of Tallahassee?
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2167. NRAamy
Good night everyone!

You too, spuds!

;)

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Quoting traumaboyy:


don't give me too much credit....I do it for the money...lol

Go on. Thanks from here too. Haven't had to make use of their services yet, but I'm sure glad the emt's are there.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
If you'll notice, I kept my comment with the Roll Tide picture weather related (just happened to be a Big A in the middle of the ocean)

Red sky at night sailors delight

Red sky in the morning sailor take warning


You did good!

Cant figure out FSU this year....I am sure it will not be too great!

Mares tales and mackeral scales make tall ships trim their sails!!
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My wife went to UF and is from Deerfield beach. But my Dad coached football at FSU. Hate it when Uf and FSU play...have to go to the sports bar to cheer for FSU!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Well Computer keyboard, I'm going to bed, I got blisters on my fingers....

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Thanks for what you do...EMT's saved my bacon more than once...(I love bacon)


don't give me too much credit....I do it for the money...lol

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2160. wjdow
good night all (:
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If you'll notice, I kept my comment with the Roll Tide picture weather related (just happened to be a Big A in the middle of the ocean)

Red sky at night sailors delight

Red sky in the morning sailor take warning
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
"Yawn,,!!!"...did you say something...(snore)
We have a place for that kind of response. WU mail me if you dare.
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2155. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting StormJunkie:


Ok, but is it just a feed back problem on that one frame or something?

And thank-you :)


I would assume feedback.. though it might be interesting to check that the gfs doesn't have the MJO peaking across there at that time.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Nice area!
Thanks for that. Issues for sure, but a decent place to live. If you bought right.
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Caribbean low.... Consistent

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2151. hydrus
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I am an official Gator Hater
Since football is here..
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Nice pun with COCKY --- 10-9-10 Lattimore lying on the floor LOL


Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much...We have a propensity for self-imploding in pressure cooker situations...

Ok, I think I've used that word a little too much lately.
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2149. NRAamy
YES!!!! Kicking the comes was the best part!!!!!!

:)
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Quoting traumaboyy:


lol....between that and naming the book in my bathroom you are making me nervous...lol

EMT-P, FF,RN
Thanks for what you do...EMT's saved my bacon more than once...(I love bacon)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2147. xcool


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Quoting StormJunkie:


Two weeks...Just make sure you know the name LATTIMORE...(I sound all COCKY...but really not very confident about that at all)


Nice pun with COCKY --- 10-9-10 Lattimore lying on the floor LOL
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2145. ackee
I see GFS develops storms in SW carrbean on 00z run having it moving NE seem unlikely to me what take all of this condtion will become right for storm formation in the SW Carrb the CMC NOGAPS ECMWF all devlop something track anyone guess at the moment
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
So my powerful insightful and deductive reasoning has deduced that you are an EMT?


lol....between that and naming the book in my bathroom you are making me nervous...lol

EMT-P, FF,RN
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Quoting Skyepony:
The 2's are little areas of low vorticity, they go with all the little black circles.


Ok, but is it just a feed back problem on that one frame or something?

And thank-you :)
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See that green circle east of Yucatan??

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2141. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:
The 2's are little areas of low vorticity, they go with all the little black circles.
How do you know all this stuff Skye? You are either a met or some kind of science major..!..:)
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Quoting NRAamy:
I love the Oregon Ducks for one reason only: that Youtube of their mascot beating up the Cougar Mascot....instant classic!!!!!!!

Drawn to violence...hhmmm (note to self, get restraining order in morning)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting PanhandleChuck:




ROLL TIDE!


Two weeks...Just make sure you know the name LATTIMORE...(I sound all COCKY...but really not very confident about that at all)
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2138. wjdow
Quoting NRAamy:
I love the Oregon Ducks for one reason only: that Youtube of their mascot beating up the Cougar Mascot....instant classic!!!!!!!



i liked it especially when he kicked the cones, seemed so natural and satisfying
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Quoting traumaboyy:


YES SIR...We Love our tide too!!

Can not love Bobby and not love the Bear!!


I am an official Gator Hater
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:




ROLL TIDE!


YES SIR...We Love our tide too!!

Can not love Bobby and not love the Bear!!
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
00z GFS is out. Now that's one crazy run!


No kidding right! As worthless as track is at those time frames, you can't help but bust out and laugh at it...
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Yes Sir...proud men and their tall flat tops.....lol....
So my powerful insightful and deductive reasoning has deduced that you are an EMT?
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2133. Skyepony (Mod)
The 2's are little areas of low vorticity, they go with all the little black circles.
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2132. hydrus
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Impressive...I think it might be raining down there somewhere...?
Even though Igor is in a weaken state, I believe he snagged most of her rain. If there are any reaching the surface, probably not much longer
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2130. NRAamy
I love the Oregon Ducks for one reason only: that Youtube of their mascot beating up the Cougar Mascot....instant classic!!!!!!!

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Quoting StormJunkie:
Sheri, I'm going to go through this once for you, because quite honestly my fingers are tired of it at this point. Others have done it and others have paid the price for it too (self imploded on the blog). Example: Randrewl. On top of that, NO other featured blogger has done it. This is the second time SW has had an issue, and quite honestly...The first time was MUCH worse than this. Dr M is a very very nice guy who decided to give him a second chance. This community gave him a second chance. His monomania (see rule three here) caused him to self destruct and act like a complete fool on the Dr's blog. No one ran him off, he did it to himself.

Question...How many other featured bloggers post in this forum other than "Portlight" occasionally? Answer...None except for Master on a rare occasion. SW would have been better off staying in his own blog, but his monomania would not allow that.


SJ~ Hey and I see what your talking about and understand. Me and you have been friends for a while. I just get aggravated when some folks have to bring it up all the time. I mean it's done and over with. Let dead dogs lye. That's all I am saying. I hope this makes since.
but thanks SJ,
sheri
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I prefer "Devil Dog" and I was not a squid. :^) (I still have a flat-top LOL!)


Yes Sir...proud men and their tall flat tops.....lol....
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2126. Skyepony (Mod)
Awe...the recent very large animated quicktime TRMM of IGOR..
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
No, sorry. Port St. Lucie. Treasure coast.


Nice area!
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
As long as we can keep each other interested. Like nature, it's unpredictable. But engaging, none the less. There are many who post with great knowledge. Dr. Maue for example, does not fear the dark.
"Yawn,,!!!"...did you say something...(snore)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting StormJunkie:
Sheri, I'm going to go through this once for you, because quite honestly my fingers are tired of it at this point. Others have done it and others have paid the price for it too (self imploded on the blog). Example: Randrewl. On top of that, NO other featured blogger has done it. This is the second time SW has had an issue, and quite honestly...The first time was MUCH worse than this. Dr M is a very very nice guy who decided to give him a second chance. This community gave him a second chance. His monomania (see rule three here) caused him to self destruct and act like a complete fool on the Dr's blog. No one ran him off, he did it to himself.

Question...How many other featured bloggers post in this forum other than "Portlight" occasionally? Answer...None except for Master on a rare occasion. SW would have been better off staying in his own blog, but his monomania would not allow that.
Gosh darn it SJ, am I ever going to get use Igormaniacal, in a meaningful way?
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mon·o·ma·ni·a (mn-mn-, -mny) n.
1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject.
2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea.
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Quoting hydrus:
All I have to say is, take in the raw and mighty power of Julia.....lol
Impressive...I think it might be raining down there somewhere...?
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2120. hydrus
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm going to sleep in 1-2-4, no 3, no.......
Night all.
G,night.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.