A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2220. xcool
:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Don't repeat this, but I asked Storm why that night was probably his last here. He kept repeating that, that fateful night. Seems like yesterday! He said "Waiting to hear from Admin." Then he posted his last image. A Dvorak of Igor and was back on the pumping kick.

But most of the time I enjoyed and learned a lot from his posts. Maybe Lefty will return and fill his shoes. :)


I know storm and his family....met them in the spring. seems like good folks. will miss him here also.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
You're a trip Kerry!

Ok, you folks kept me up too late and now all you trolls are running me off the blog!

Good night all (that are left)


Night Sir!!

trolls=vampires on the night shift....fyi!!
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You're a trip Kerry!

Ok, you folks kept me up too late and now all you trolls are running me off the blog!

Good night all (that are left)
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131f ???????????
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2213. xcool
brb
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2211. xcool
wow 55c on September 27 here in slidell
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2209. xcool
traumaboyy ;) lol
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Quoting xcool:
traumaboyy how about move nola.lol /


Dude....Daughter 16....two more years....back to Travel Nurse......my destinations....1. NOLA 2. Islamorada 3. NOLA 4. Islamorada.........
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Don't answer. May be casing the joint.

jk


Elroy tell me anything I need to know!!
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2206. xcool
traumaboyy how about move nola.lol /
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Quoting xcool:
traumaboyy sometime..


looking at last two weekends in October for trip to NOLA....have not nailed date yet.
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2204. xcool
lol
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I hope all have a good night. Thanks for the laughs. "See" you on the 'morrow.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh, yay. An anniversary storm.










On another note, is the "Rich Text" something I dare press or is it more trouble than it's worth?


Have not ventured down the road of the "Rich Text"...

As for that solution...You know damn well you are in the protected zone and so that will never play out!

Morning Jerry, good to see ya.
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Quoting Floodman:


LMAO...soporific, is he? I'll reserve comment

This old man is heading for the rack...g'night kids and try to play nice!
Thank you, Flood. Best wishes for your night. It's all good.
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2199. JLPR2
Well I'm off to bed, night all!
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
If you must, then back at ya. Sleep well. Glad I could be of service


lol....I just love old people!!
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2197. xcool
traumaboyy sometime..
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
When PSLFLCaneVet posts I tend to nod-off now that you mention it.
If you must, then back at ya. Sleep well. Glad I could be of service
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I am an official Gator Hater




I'm a gator hater too.... but not nearly as much as i hate Auburn... I an LSU fan, Geaux tigers.. and if our offense picks up any at all, bama better watch it cuz Arkansas is not their only worry in the SEC west!!!!!!
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
When PSLFLCaneVet posts I tend to nod-off now that you mention it.


LMAO...soporific, is he? I'll reserve comment

This old man is heading for the rack...g'night kids and try to play nice!
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Quoting xcool:
traumaboyy good .offwork on mondayy yayy


Rock on Brother.....you off weekends??
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2191. xcool
traumaboyy good .offwork on mondayy yayy
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Quoting xcool:


bull cmc


How your night going??
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Night Devil Dog


jarhead!
I really am leaving now! lol!
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
HS, would it be wrong to be LMAO?


LOL
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Don't you people ever sleep?
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Word up, I think. No matter, your post is just.
No doubt that was a phat post....wow! we are really lame. I think it's bed time in i.d. ho
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2182. xcool


bull cmc
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Quoting traumaboyy:


I work only as Nurse Now (much much more money/hours) but the Medic Training is awesome and in Florida if they can't get your battery jumped off....no one can!!
HS, would it be wrong to be LMAO?
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Go on. Thanks from here too. Haven't had to make use of their services yet, but I'm sure glad the emt's are there.


I work only as Nurse Now (much much more money/hours) but the Medic Training is awesome and in Florida if they can't get your battery jumped off....no one can!!
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2179. JLPR2
Check 94L out XD

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Now THAT IS FUNNY! Don't get me started on what is wrong with a society that pays teachers, police, first responders, firemen a pitance yet athletes and actors are paid millions. (sigh)
Word up, I think. No matter, your post is just.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


They're young and will probably finish with 7 or eight wins. Will be a force to reckon with in a couple more years.

When was the last time a hurricane made landfall South of Tallahassee?


Trying to answer but anytime I hear Tallahassee and Hurricane in th

flips my breaker...there it went again

Kate in 84-85 closest landfalling non NCAA hurricane
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Quoting StormJunkie:
I think actors and athletes should get paid more...


SARCASM FLAG - ON
Ah, perspective.
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I think actors and athletes should get paid more...


SARCASM FLAG - ON
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2173. xcool


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Quoting Skyepony:


I would assume feedback.. though it might be interesting to check that the gfs doesn't have the MJO peaking across there at that time.


I have always left MJO up to the experts like Drak, Levi, etc...Guess at some point I should really learn how to read those forecasts.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Good night everyone!

You too, spuds!

;)



Night Amy
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Quoting traumaboyy:


don't give me too much credit....I do it for the money...lol

Now THAT IS FUNNY! Don't get me started on what is wrong with a society that pays teachers, police, first responders, firemen a pitance yet athletes and actors are paid millions. (sigh)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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