A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Good morning, everyone.
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Keep safe people in florida
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2268. CalTex

If anybody's here, would you take a look at this? The blob just south of Puerto Rico looks interesting, but I'm hoping it's nothing...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
Member Since: September 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
Quoting traumaboyy:


did not know which way he was headed


No worries. :)

Igor has now surpassed 40 in ACE, the first time in 6 years - 2004 had two storms to achieve it. Surpassing Ivan would be a tall order even for the most intense of Cape Verde hurricanes, being the second most plentiful ACE storm on record and was the most for over a hundred years. However, it looks like if the extratropical transition estimate is correct, Igor'll not surpass Frances. He'll probably top out around the 42-43 mark.
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Quoting Cotillion:


From Igor?

If I lived in Greenland...

We've not had any remnants from storms this year.


did not know which way he was headed
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Wow, 94L is really blowing up some convection this early morning...
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5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
Location: 34.2°N 64.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNE at 20 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb

Same as for Igor, more or less - up 2mb.

5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
Location: 35.5°N 47.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: ENE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb

Julia actually strengthens.
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2263. barbamz
Short hello from Germany ...

Dr. M. is on the Agency News:

"Very large" Hurricane Igor moves north of Bermuda

By Sam Strangeways and Ruth O'Kelly Lynch

HAMILTON | Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:12am EDT


(Reuters) - Hurricane Igor pounded Bermuda early on Monday as it moved north over the Atlantic, skirting the U.S. East Coast, which should suffer only rough surf and a stiff breezes.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the core of the "very large" category 1 hurricane, packing maximum sustained winds near to 75 miles per hour, was about 80 miles north northwest of Bermuda, a popular tourist destination and wealthy global insurance service hub, as of 2 a.m. EDT/0600 GMT.

The hurricane was moving north northeast at 16 miles per hour. A turn northwest away from the coast and an increase in forward speed were expected in the next 12-24 hours.

Igor was a very large storm, with hurricane force winds extending out about 90 miles from its center.

Bermuda residents reported uprooted trees, flying debris, widespread power outages, some flooding of streets and homes and boats torn free from moorings. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

Well over half of the territory's electricity users were hit by power outages according to the local power utility Belco. Bermuda has a population of more than 67,000.

Police spokesman Dwayne Caines said on Sunday high winds had driven waves up to 10-12 feet high "almost coming to the buildings in front of the ferry terminal" in the capital Hamilton.

"The rain is coming in sideways, basically it is very rough. Trees are down and there are branches blowing all over the place and there is lots of debris flying," Mark Tatem, a photographer for The Royal Gazette newspaper, wrote in a live hurricane chatroom set up by the paper.

Several roads in the capital were flooded.

Bermuda's roads were deserted and churches had canceled services. Most shops and restaurants in the capital were boarded up and residents had bought up emergency supplies like fuel, batteries, food and candles.

Local authorities on Sunday closed the causeway that links L.F. Wade International Airport and the eastern parish of St. George's to the rest of Bermuda. The airport was also closed.

Hurricane expert Jeff Masters of private U.S. forecaster Weather Underground said Igor lost some of its original destructive power due to the collapse of its eyewall -- a hurricane's most damaging inner zone -- earlier on Sunday.

The hurricane center predicted total rainfall of 6 to 9 inches over the Atlantic territory and said Igor's storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding and destructive waves, particularly along the south coast.

East of Igor, weakening Tropical Storm Julia posed no threat to land, and it was expected to dissipate on Tuesday, the hurricane center said.

In Mexico over the weekend, the remnants of Hurricane Karl dissipated over the mountains of south central Mexico, after killing at least eight people, emergency workers said.

Karl appeared to have spared Mexican oil operations from major damage after sweeping through the Bay of Campeche, where Mexico produces more than two-thirds of its 2.55 million barrels per day of crude output.

(Additional reporting by Katharine Jackson in Hamilton, Bermuda, and Luis Manuel Lopez in Villahermosa, Mexico; Writing by Pascal Fletcher and Todd Eastham; editing by Matthew Jones)
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Quoting traumaboyy:


good morning looks like you might get wet!


From Igor?

If I lived in Greenland...

We've not had any remnants from storms this year.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Ex-Igor...

Doesn't really the show the extratropical cyclone getting much stronger than that.


good morning looks like you might get wet!
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Ex-Igor...

Doesn't really the show the extratropical cyclone getting much stronger than that.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Have not ventured down the road of the "Rich Text"...

As for that solution...You know damn well you are in the protected zone and so that will never play out!

Morning Jerry, good to see ya.
rich text makes your entry pretty much appear as it will when posted. Understand it is supposed to help with posting images is the main reason for it's addition. Works best in firefox (duh) you are computer savy enough you can probably find it useful.
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Quoting xcool:
im go bed bye all.


night bro!
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2257. xcool
im go bed bye all.
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2256. xcool
me too lol
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Quoting xcool:
oh my 1.845 million.


I don't think my credit score will cover that one!!
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Quoting xcool:
slidell la 30min from nola & getting really cold here.lets say if nola 57 outside slidell be 47 outside... far North that why


Don't like cold....at 45 I have to wear long pants and shoes. people keep saying we are going to have a less brutal winter because of la nina!
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2253. xcool
oh my 1.845 million.
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Average house price in Bermuda in 2007 was 1.845 million.

For that kind of price they better be hurricane resistant.
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2251. xcool
slidell la 30min from nola & getting really cold here.lets say if nola 57 outside slidell be 47 outside... far North that why
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2250. xcool
yea 53
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ur gonna get a low 53 next sat wow this early
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2248. xcool
mmm .
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Quoting xcool:
lmaoo


aaaa....love good hot fresh.....COFFEE!!!
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2246. xcool
lmaoo
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Quoting xcool:
Saturday

85/53


ok....great numbers in F!

lol
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2244. xcool
Saturday

85/53
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2243. xcool
na
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Quoting xcool:
yeah


thats 131f!!
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2241. xcool
yeah
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Quoting xcool:




while back you said it was going to be 55c in Slidell??
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2239. xcool


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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Goodnight all. My melatonin is starting to kick in.


night Kerry!
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Goodnight all. My melatonin is starting to kick in.
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2236. xcool
;)
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the only thing we need to look out is flooding here quick inch and bam more flooding problems...still some streets are flooded here and im talking about some are deep
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2234. xcool
models have noo clue where going ...
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Quoting traumaboyy:


You killing me man!!

Send it to Mexico!!

That is a joke...for any overly sensitive lurkers!!
Now that Euro is picking up that system, will it keep it on Alex, Karl track or send it on crazy tracks like GFS has? Anyway, feel sorry for the Mexicans if Euro is right and I definitely don't want it anywhere near here, even if we do need rain.
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2232. xcool
any from tx to fl look out jmo
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Quoting xcool:
should be interesting week ahead


i know.....maybe we can get by with just a tropical storm and keep the wind out of the question....I know north florida is very dry..wishcasting.....guess we get what we get!
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2230. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TROPICAL STORM FANAPI (T1011)
15:00 PM JST September 20 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Fanapi (990 hPa) located at 23.6N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.3N 111.5E - Tropical Depression
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2229. xcool
should be interesting week ahead
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Quoting btwntx08:
heyyy


you are not an overly sensitive lurker!!
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2227. xcool



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2226. xcool
TAKER MODELS KICK OUTT DOOR.
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2225. xcool
lol that why never putting much faith models
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heyyy
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Quoting xcool:


You killing me man!!

Send it to Mexico!!

That is a joke...for any overly sensitive lurkers!!
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2222. xcool
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2221. xcool


here we go
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2220. xcool
:0
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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