A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Forgot about Gustav! Ike was more Texas storm, but thats right, it did whip Louisiana a bit.


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Quoting doorman79:


Yes, along with uptown and the garden district. Also going into Jefferson Parish with Harrihan and Old Meterie are on high ground. The problem going further up river in places like Meterie and Kenner is that the lake gets closer to the river and only the sections close to the river stay dry. The areas that are closer to the lake was swamp 60 years ago. Same with New Orleans east. The lake was dredged for years to fill these areas for development. As anyone who lives there can tell you, you have to pump sand underneath your house every couple of years. They drive pilings so the slabs do not sink but the sand does. Just a little history on the expantion of Nola


Interesting, I didn't know about needing to fill in the sand under the houses. I bet after a hurricane the sand companies are quite busy. We have the traditional red clay here. It's great for making white dogs a pinkish color when they dig in it and it's wet.
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Yet another ...

View and sounds of Igor and Bermuda
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You people argue too much.
Do not!
;-)
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Quoting BioChemist:
There were many people who were saying 94 was going to go far west because the ridge will build due to Igor.

I just dont see how this could happen given the current trend.
The only way is for 94l to remain weak, and just drift across


Even the experts (San Juan NWS) were saying it'd go west. Looks like CV storms love moving N this year (many fishes actually).
Now back to boring weather.
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You people argue too much.
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Quoting BioChemist:
There were many people who were saying 94 was going to go far west because the ridge will build due to Igor.

I just dont see how this could happen given the current trend.
The only way is for 94l to remain weak, and just drift across
Exactly. With development, it would move poleward enough to miss the Caribbean, probably. Stays a wave for a week, watchout.
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59. IKE
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON BERMUDA...STRONGER WINDS YET TO COME...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 19
Location: 30.4N 65.4W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: N at 16 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb

...............................................

HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF IGOR
HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED
THE HURRICANE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 75 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DRIFTING BUOY 44903...RECENTLY REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 951 MB...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE THAT WAS REPORTED EARLIER BY THE
AIRCRAFT. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH
THE HURRICANE AROUND 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON.

IGOR HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/12. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS
AND LIES JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE LONGER
RANGE...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE THE CONSENSUS AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.

IGOR WILL REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST WHILE IGOR REMAINS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN
ABOUT A DAY AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 72
HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE
OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE ALREADY REPORTED. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WAS
EXPENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA
BUOY 41048.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 30.4N 65.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 32.3N 65.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 39.3N 60.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 43.5N 55.0W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 22/1200Z 50.5N 45.5W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 23/1200Z 54.5N 40.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 24/1200Z 59.0N 39.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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Quoting muddertracker:
Yup..just look at Naples.


Ouch! Naples would be hard hit if they get one directly on them.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


So true! The French Quarter of course is the oldest part of NO, and is built on higher ground. She made it through Katrina fairly well. But cities spread as they grow and that's where the problem comes from.


Yes, along with uptown and the garden district. Also going into Jefferson Parish with Harrihan and Old Meterie are on high ground. The problem going further up river in places like Meterie and Kenner is that the lake gets closer to the river and only the sections close to the river stay dry. The areas that are closer to the lake was swamp 60 years ago. Same with New Orleans east. The lake was dredged for years to fill these areas for development. As anyone who lives there can tell you, you have to pump sand underneath your house every couple of years. They drive pilings so the slabs do not sink but the sand does. Just a little history on the expantion of Nola
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Quoting BioChemist:
Pensacola is very over due for a Hurricane. Last one was Dennis, and Ida last year was close, but fell apart

Seems like From Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana have been lucky the last couple years.

However, I just dont see 94l being the one that breaks this streak. Its already moving NW and is level with the Cape Verdes. Am I grossly wrong?


Lucky last year. (Louisiana) The year before that we were hit twice, two weeks apart, Ike and Gustav. Not fun.
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There were many people who were saying 94 was going to go far west because the ridge will build due to Igor.

I just dont see how this could happen given the current trend.
The only way is for 94l to remain weak, and just drift across
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Quoting Neapolitan:


I dunno...if there are 25-45 foot waves offshore the island, and some of those come in at the right (wrong?) angle atop a surge of several feet, I suspect it could mean more than just a little. I'm in no way saying there'll be anything close to devastation, but, still, there's a lot of roiled-up water heading Bermuda's way...
Bermuda is nothing like Florida. A lot of real topography to be had. Waves break when they hit the shallows and actual water levels will be no more than ~4 feet above astronomical tides.

the wiki topo map (little visible here, click for full size)
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Think you are behind? Corpus Christi has not had a direct hit in 40 years. Been on fringes, but not direct. Another 40 will be just fine, but I fear our time is ticking...
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Nice new Avatar there ATMO, Gotta like that Red Hypergiant :)

Click to enlarge and lengthen run





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My prayers go out to the residents of Bermuda and Taiwan this morning.

Although Igor has weakened quite considerably, this storm will affect the island with high winds and surf for over 24 hrs!

That Typhoon that hit Taiwan looks mean.

Also 94L looks healthy, we may have TS Lisa by this time tomorrow!!
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48. IKE
Quoting BioChemist:
Pensacola is very over due for a Hurricane. Last one was Dennis, and Ida last year was close, but fell apart

Seems like From Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana have been lucky the last couple years.

However, I just dont see 94l being the one that breaks this streak. Its already moving NW and is level with the Cape Verdes. Am I grossly wrong?


I doubt you are wrong...

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Quoting KeysieLife:
In case anyone is interested, the live feed in Bermuda is back up:
Link

Also check out this live feed too. Link
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


So true! The French Quarter of course is the oldest part of NO, and is built on higher ground. She made it through Katrina fairly well. But cities spread as they grow and that's where the problem comes from.
Yup..just look at Naples.
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Pensacola is very over due for a Hurricane. Last one was Dennis, and Ida last year was close, but fell apart

Seems like From Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana have been lucky the last couple years.

However, I just dont see 94l being the one that breaks this streak. Its already moving NW and is level with the Cape Verdes. Am I grossly wrong?
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Quoting hydrus:
Where are you?


Palm Beach County
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42. MZT
Igor deteriorated pretty quickly over the last day. I think we are past the "major hurricane" danger for most of the US east coast. Of course a major flooding event, or a storm bearing tornados could create a lot of damage - but I think concerns about CAT3 - CAT4 landfalls now (north of Florida) can be discounted.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Here:

LINK: Link


Thank you, Sammy!

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Quoting caneswatch:


The return date for a Category 4 where I live is 25 years. We haven't had a Category 4 in over triple that time.
Where are you?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22322
Quoting pilotguy1:


And I think the only American city that a good portion is below sea level. There is a message here somewhere.


So true! The French Quarter of course is the oldest part of NO, and is built on higher ground. She made it through Katrina fairly well. But cities spread as they grow and that's where the problem comes from.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Ehh, so? There is not a long coastline with a shallow shelf in Igor's way. By the time he gets to a shelf, the big prediction is for 1 to 2 meters.




Just sayin, this means little to Bermuda.


I dunno...if there are 25-45 foot waves offshore the island, and some of those come in at the right (wrong?) angle atop a surge of several feet, I suspect it could mean more than just a little. I'm in no way saying there'll be anything close to devastation, but, still, there's a lot of roiled-up water heading Bermuda's way...
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In case anyone is interested, the live feed in Bermuda is back up:
Link
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We just keep "lucking out" this year. We've had some hits, and some deaths, but nothing compared to what could have happened if we were just a bit unlucky. I hope this trend continues...

Mmmm...I love the smell of bacon grease in the morning...old style pancakes rock!
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Quoting hydrus:
Yes they are due. And unfortunately I believe South Florida will be hit this year. And a major hurricane is likely because of all that warm water around. Naturally, I do not want that to happen, but all the things necessary for it to occur are there.jmo of course.


With all that extremely warm water in the Caribbean, there's no doubt it could be a Category 4 or 5. Unfortunately, most here are not prepared for a hurricane at all, and once one is on its way, it will be mass chaos here.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The 1330Z IKE report from NOAA calls for the following:

IKE for winds > tropical storm force: 139 Tj
IKE for winds > hurricane force: 21 Tj
Destructive Potential Rating (0-6) Wind 2.8, Surge/Waves: 5.3

(FWIW, 5.3 is a very large number. By way of comparison, Katrina and Wilma at their peaks earned a 5.1, and Ike earned a 5.2.)
Ehh, so? There is not a long coastline with a shallow shelf in Igor's way. By the time he gets to a shelf, the big prediction is for 1 to 2 meters.




Just sayin, this means little to Bermuda.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


I Agree, History is Very Alarming.. Look:









I tried to find one of these for Louisiana, but all I found was a comment that 'For Louisiana, the cumulative frequency suggests a constant annual probability.'
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Quoting G8GT:
Coffee -

That's definite, given the climatology and Sept-Oct. ATL basin/GOMEX historicals.

But..are you pointing to any specific model or set of models today?

I would like to see what's developing,however, I cannot without a link to what you're looking at to come to your conclusion.

A little help?

Thanks!


You can find most of the model pages here.

If you go to the NCEP page and click on Western N Atl above the table, then select the latest run of the GFS (the 06z right now), I usually view it in fine, then select upper air graphics above the table, the last column there should be the 850mb vorticity. As you can see, you can also view many other components of the run there.

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Quoting sammywammybamy:


I Agree, History is Very Alarming.. Look:









The return date for a Category 4 where I live is 25 years. We haven't had a Category 4 in over triple that time.
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The 1330Z IKE report from NOAA calls for the following:

IKE for winds > tropical storm force: 139 Tj
IKE for winds > hurricane force: 21 Tj
Destructive Potential Rating (0-6) Wind 2.8, Surge/Waves: 5.3

(FWIW, 5.3 is a very large number. By way of comparison, Katrina and Wilma at their peaks earned a 5.1, and Ike earned a 5.2.)
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Louisiana politely declines, we will be busy with other parties at that time. No time in schedule for hurricane parties.
Yep. I'll send my regrets, but we have a previous engagement.
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Thanks Doc!
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<
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22322
22. G8GT
Coffee -

That's definite, given the climatology and Sept-Oct. ATL basin/GOMEX historicals.

But..are you pointing to any specific model or set of models today?

I would like to see what's developing,however, I cannot without a link to what you're looking at to come to your conclusion.

A little help?

Thanks!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


South Florida is Due for a Hurricane Hit. I Do Not think it will be this year, but in the next 5 years.
Yes they are due. And unfortunately I believe South Florida will be hit this year. And a major hurricane is likely because of all that warm water around. Naturally, I do not want that to happen, but all the things necessary for it to occur are there.jmo of course.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22322
Quoting sammywammybamy:


South Florida is Due for a Hurricane Hit. I Do Not think it will be this year, but in the next 5 years.


It's been 5 years since we got hit. We're overdue by 2-4 years.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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