A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Alex was upgraded to a Category 2 Hurricane w/ 110 mph winds, and a pressure of 946.

This ties the storm for the strongest June storm ever.
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Quoting divdog:
Pensacola is not overdue for a hurricane. Long term average is a hit every 7-10 years and dennis hit in 2004.


Dennis was a 2005 storm, and I thought the average was less than that, for a cat 1
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Quoting Chicklit:

We go through that same circular argument here in New Smyrna Beach where the condos were built on the beach back when the beach was a half mile wide. Forty years later, locals think we should just let the condos fall into the ocean so no one wants to do anything about beach restoration (even though the inlet and Intracoastal Waterway needs dredging and sand can be and has been relocated down the beach). The people who live there proportionally higher taxes than many others in the area.
Much better and more reasonable to call a moratorium on new building, but that isn't happening.


I just think it is naive for people say "We shouldn't rebuild New Orleans because it is below sea level.". By that logic, we wouldn't rebuild San Francisco or Los Angeles because they lie on major fault lines, or Naples, Italy because it's too close to a volcano or any other number of major cities for similar reasons.
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Quoting CoffinWood:


Hi Aislinn,
I don't know if Naples has ever been hit by a hurricane, but I think what he's pointing out is the mountain in the background. That's Mt. Vesuvius, a dormant volcano which last erupted in 79 AD, and is WAY overdue. It will be an incalculable loss of life when it blows...


ROFL!!! I read Naples and immediately thought of Naples, FL without even thinking about the mountain in the picture! So true about the volcano. Cities constantly grow up around possible disaster areas. I have so many friends who say they could never live down here because of the hurricanes, yet they live with the constant threat of tornados. I tell them at least we know when a hurricane is coming. (Most of the time, Humberto took us by surprise.) I don't tell them we also get alot of tornades.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know, as crazy as it sounds, I miss being in hurricanes. I used to live on the NC coast and we had Floyd, I wasn't alive for Fran. We also had storms like Isabel (2003) and Ophelia (2005). It was actually kind of fun, and we had close calls sometimes.

Good times, Good times. lol.
There is nothing fun about being hit by a hurricane.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Rethinking my property. My driveway is actually sand and there are sand dunes less than a mile from my house. I'm on a slab. But I've never heard of anyone here adding sand under slab houses.
That is because your land wasn't man made. Certain parts of Nola are built on man made land pumped in from Lake Ponchatrain.
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Welcome back DJ :)
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Increased wave heights off the coast of South Carolina

All them Cacalacies are the same. ;6~
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HurricaneIgor's heading had turned westward to (6.2degrees west of) dueNorth
from its previous heading of dueNorth.
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~18.3mph(~29.5km/h)

18Sep 03pmGMT - - 26.0n63.6w - - 110mph - - 939mb - - #42
18Sep 06pmGMT - - 26.6n64.1w - - 105mph - - 945mb - - #42A
18Sep 09pmGMT - - 27.1n64.3w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #43
19Sep 12amGMT - - 27.7n64.5w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - NHC.Adv.#43A
19Sep 03amGMT - - 28.2n64.7w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #44
19Sep 06amGMT - - 28.3n65.1w - - - 90mph - - 949mb - - #44A
19Sep 09amGMT - - 28.9n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45
18Sep 12pmGMT - - 29.6n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45A
18Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.4n65.4w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #46

Copy&paste 26.0n63.6w, 26.6n64.1w, 27.1n64.3w, 27.7n64.5w, 28.2n64.7w-28.3n65.1w, 28.3n65.1w-28.9n65.3w, 28.9n65.3w-29.6n65.3w, 29.6n65.3w-30.4n65.4w, chs, bos, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Rethinking my property. My driveway is actually sand and there are sand dunes less than a mile from my house. I'm on a slab. But I've never heard of anyone here adding sand under slab houses.
Really not as much of an issue if you aren't over a former swamp. Subsidence, etc...
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Quoting hunkerdown:
now thats a forecast to rely on :)
LOL, if south Florida gets a hit this year it will likely come in from the east rather than the west (similar to Wilma).
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Quoting LTLROX:


That is the incorrect application of the law of averages. Just because a direct hit has not occurred in the last few years, does not make it more likely that a hit will occur in the near future. As world weather patterns change it is more likely that hits will occur in bunches, rather than be spread out in a regular pattern.


I think it would take 30 cycles for things to fall in line, so if they should get a Cat 5 every 33 years, you would need 990 yrs for it to average out to one every 33. Otherwise you would have to use a Students T distribution to find the actual probability (which is likely what they have done), as opposed to a normal distribution. So an average over 990 years does not mean that you actually see one Cat 5 every 33 years. Not sure if that is stated exactly right...Prob and Stats was last semester.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Would that be like the double hit Louisiana receive with Ike and Gustav, or more along the trends as Sammy pointed out?


Can't tell if it is a trend just from two events. The last five years have not indicated a trend. Trying to find trends over only 100 years does not tell anyone other than the insurance people much. If you are there when it happens and it happens only once on the average every 100 years, you are still hit.

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Quoting coffeecrusader:
A future Carribean storm is becoming imminent. Where this storm ends up is anyone's guess. It will all be dependent on the timing of the trough. Anywhere from the east coast to Mexico at this point, although most of the models are pointing towards a gulf coast storm from Florida to Louisiana. Should be fun to watch this evolve over the next 7-10 days.
I think your choice of words is poor at best. There is nothing remotely imminent about the future development a couple of long range models are showing.
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Quoting BioChemist:
Pensacola is very over due for a Hurricane. Last one was Dennis, and Ida last year was close, but fell apart

Seems like From Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana have been lucky the last couple years.

However, I just dont see 94l being the one that breaks this streak. Its already moving NW and is level with the Cape Verdes. Am I grossly wrong?
Pensacola is not overdue for a hurricane. Long term average is a hit every 7-10 years and dennis hit in 2004.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Due and not due make no scientific sense. Pure superstitious thinking. As DDD (Dear Departed Dad) used to say. "It's bad luck to be superstitious." Link
lol.
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Well said doc!!,the last paragraph of your blog should be used for reference for the next 3-5days conversation/questions on "where's the gulf storm going??",until it forms take the tracks w/a grain of salt
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


South Florida is Due for a Hurricane Hit. I Do Not think it will be this year, but in the next 5 years.
now thats a forecast to rely on :)
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Quoting divdog:
I'd say the caribbean is in great shape if all we have to worry about is a blob just about to move off Africa. Things are looking good for the caribbean and the gulf.


Nope, then we have a pattern change coming next week into the first week of October, and we'll start getting storms forming in the Caribbean.
Quoting pilotguy1:


Not arguing, asking. Why do you think that?


Just a guess ;)
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Quoting NOLAmike:


Whar message is that?

We go through that same circular argument here in New Smyrna Beach where the condos were built on the beach back when the beach was a half mile wide. Forty years later, locals think we should just let the condos fall into the ocean so no one wants to do anything about beach restoration (even though the inlet and Intracoastal Waterway needs dredging and sand can be and has been relocated down the beach). The people who live there proportionally higher taxes than many others in the area.
Much better and more reasonable to call a moratorium on new building, but that isn't happening.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. My grandma in Lakeview had issues with the slab cracking from the sand sinking unevenly under her house.


Rethinking my property. My driveway is actually sand and there are sand dunes less than a mile from my house. I'm on a slab. But I've never heard of anyone here adding sand under slab houses.
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Good morning everyone!

"HurricaneTrack.com Live Video

This is our live video feed coming from the Hurricane Intercept Research Team Chevy Tahoe- part of HurricaneTrack.com live coverage of hurricanes and other severe weather."

These people are currently stationed on Bermuda as they intercept Hurricane Igor. Enjoy!



Source: HurricaneTrack
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Ouch! Naples would be hard hit if they get one directly on them.


Hi Aislinn,
I don't know if Naples has ever been hit by a hurricane, but I think what he's pointing out is the mountain in the background. That's Mt. Vesuvius, a dormant volcano which last erupted in 79 AD, and is WAY overdue. It will be an incalculable loss of life when it blows...
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2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl

Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
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You know, as crazy as it sounds, I miss being in hurricanes. I used to live on the NC coast and we had Floyd, I wasn't alive for Fran. We also had storms like Isabel (2003) and Ophelia (2005). It was actually kind of fun, and we had close calls sometimes.

Good times, Good times. lol.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I believe the Caribbean threatener is the wave behind 94L, which will likely move WEST:

I'd say the caribbean is in great shape if all we have to worry about is a blob just about to move off Africa. Things are looking good for the caribbean and the gulf.
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Correct you can also get a period like from 1966 Betsy to 1992 Andrew with no major hitting S Fl.
Or have one almost every year like back in the 40's early 50's.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


South Florida is Due for a Hurricane Hit. I Do Not think it will be this year, but in the next 5 years.
Due and not due make no scientific sense. Pure superstitious thinking. As DDD (Dear Departed Dad) used to say. "It's bad luck to be superstitious." Link
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Quoting MZT:
Igor deteriorated pretty quickly over the last day. I think we are past the "major hurricane" danger for most of the US east coast. Of course a major flooding event, or a storm bearing tornados could create a lot of damage - but I think concerns about CAT3 - CAT4 landfalls now (north of Florida) can be discounted.


true, but dont discount CAT 1 or 2 Storms or even the remanants of these storms when they make landfall in the GOM or Florida..Inland, we get hit hard as well due to those storms spawning tornados or flood events..we have had our share of destruction with even minimum category events here in eastern NC..

August 13, 2004
Between August 12th and August 14th, Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley spawned about 30 tornadoes. Just before dawn on the 13th, Bonnie produced an F2 tornado in the Rocky Point community of Pender County, North Carolina. Along its 5-mile-long path, about 30 home were damaged or destroyed. Three people were killed, one in each of three mobile homes. About 25 people were injured. This particular tornado is not shown on the preliminary SPC map. .
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Interesting, I didn't know about needing to fill in the sand under the houses. I bet after a hurricane the sand companies are quite busy. We have the traditional red clay here. It's great for making white dogs a pinkish color when they dig in it and it's wet.
Yep. My grandma in Lakeview had issues with the slab cracking from the sand sinking unevenly under her house.
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Quoting LTLROX:


That is the incorrect application of the law of averages. Just because a direct hit has not occurred in the last few years, does not make it more likely that a hit will occur in the near future. As world weather patterns change it is more likely that hits will occur in bunches, rather than be spread out in a regular pattern.


Would that be like the double hit Louisiana receive with Ike and Gustav, or more along the trends as Sammy pointed out?
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Quoting pilotguy1:


And I think the only American city that a good portion is below sea level. There is a message here somewhere.


What message is that?
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Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 40 min 5 sec ago
77 °F
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 46 mph from the East

Wind Gust: 71 mph
Pressure: 29.39 in (Falling)
Visibility: 0.5 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft

If you go to the site on WU you'll see the radar.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
Increased wave heights off the coast of South Carolina

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Quoting caneswatch:


It's been 5 years since we got hit. We're overdue by 2-4 years.


That is the incorrect application of the law of averages. Just because a direct hit has not occurred in the last few years, does not make it more likely that a hit will occur in the near future. As world weather patterns change it is more likely that hits will occur in bunches, rather than be spread out in a regular pattern.
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Quoting BioChemist:
Forgot about Gustav! Ike was more Texas storm, but thats right, it did whip Louisiana a bit.




Especially if you live close to the TX line. *S*
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I believe the Caribbean threatener is the wave behind 94L, which will likely move WEST:

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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Interesting, I didn't know about needing to fill in the sand under the houses. I bet after a hurricane the sand companies are quite busy. We have the traditional red clay here. It's great for making white dogs a pinkish color when they dig in it and it's wet.


I remember as a kid having to push wheelbarrows full of sand to the adults who would shovel it under my grandparents house.
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72. IKE
...JULIA TURNS SHARPLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 19
Location: 34.2°N 50.3°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: ENE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb

........................................

Maybe Julia going ENE would leave a weakness that 94L would be drawn toward.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.