A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bordonaro:
Does anyone have the ACE totals from Igor and the total for the Northern Hemisphere?


As of 11AM, Igor stands at a pretty remarkable 38.9975. COAPS (at FSU, where the numbers shown seem erroneously high, though not by much) says Northern Hemisphere ACE for the year is at about 224.
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TD by tonight...? Maybe.

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Julia ?



Igor ?



Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting aislinnpaps:


When you're young you can 'enjoy' hurricanes, as long as they don't effect you negatively. When you have to pay for the damages, etc., you look at it a little differently. I love hurricanes, they fascinate me, but I hate the damage they can cause.


I remember being a young kid and having the authorities go door to door telling people they had to evacuate, and if they refused, the officers would say, "Alright, suit yourself, but we'll need your social security number and next of kin written on your arm in permanent marker." That usually gets the message through to people, regardless of your age.
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Quoting caneswatch:


You might wanna change that plus sign lol
ahhhh...NOPE !
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting will40:


if he had been here for Hazel he would change his tune
absolutely astounds me when people make comments like that. they have either never been thru a major or have some screws loose. Just the wrong thing to say. Not even funny in a joking sense.
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Quoting KanKunKid:


Since when is weather subject to the "law" of averages? If it was, the Statistical computer forecast models would be the predictors of choice, but they aren't because "averages" are based on historical data. There is no clear cut pattern for events to reoccur EXACTLY like they happened before in the same place with the same intensity. Sure, they give chances of things to occur based on what happened before, but it isn't always accurate. There are way too many variables in tropical forecasting to even hint at a coherent pattern or a signal that will provide an indication that a previous event will happen again.


Climatology is basically... averages.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
+1000000


You might wanna change that plus sign lol
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


ROFL!!! I read Naples and immediately thought of Naples, FL without even thinking about the mountain in the picture! So true about the volcano. Cities constantly grow up around possible disaster areas. I have so many friends who say they could never live down here because of the hurricanes, yet they live with the constant threat of tornados. I tell them at least we know when a hurricane is coming. (Most of the time, Humberto took us by surprise.) I don't tell them we also get alot of tornades.


LOL!

And that is so true, at least you have a chance to prepare for a hurricane, unlike earthquakes, tornadoes or volcanic eruptions (Mt. Ranier, St. Helens etc).



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Quoting will40:


if he had been here for Hazel he would change his tune


When you're young you can 'enjoy' hurricanes, as long as they don't effect you negatively. When you have to pay for the damages, etc., you look at it a little differently. I love hurricanes, they fascinate me, but I hate the damage they can cause.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Congrats on your photo making the WU worldview section.

Wow, thanks, I made the number 9 spot. Awesome :O)!!
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Patrap had a link to an article on why New Orleans had to be rebuilt. It is an eye opener. Maybe he can find it again if anyone is interested.

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Quoting BioChemist:


I dont know where I read 4 years


I think only the most extremely prone areas will have an average of a hurricane every 4 years. But, as with most sciences, meteorology is not absolute, and mother nature can throw a curveball at any time. That said, we seem to get ours in twos here in the panhandle (Erin/Opal, Ivan/Dennis)...so I'm not sure I'm looking forward to the next round.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
+1000000
-1000000. :)
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Maybe I found a stat for named storm passing within 80
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Quoting Bordonaro:
My prayers go out to the residents of Bermuda and Taiwan this morning.

Although Igor has weakened quite considerably, this storm will affect the island with high winds and surf for over 24 hrs!

That Typhoon that hit Taiwan looks mean.

Also 94L looks healthy, we may have TS Lisa by this time tomorrow!!


Congrats on your photo making the WU worldview section.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
150. srada
Quoting Chicklit:


I get your drift. If you're rebuilding, then why not build different types of structures?


I wouldnt think people could have rebuilt with the reinforced structure even if they wanted to..the insurance companies gave a lot of people grief in denying claims after Katrina..some were even lucky to get market value for their homes so its hard to rebuild when you dont have the funds to do so
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Quoting divdog:
There is nothing fun about being hit by a hurricane.


if he had been here for Hazel he would change his tune
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Quoting BioChemist:


Dennis was a 2005 storm, and I thought the average was less than that, for a cat 1
nope once every 7-10 years of a storm center passing within 85 miles.
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Quoting GBguy88:


I respectfully disagree. Pensacola sees a hurricane passing within 75 miles every 7-10 years or so. We had Erin and Opal in 1995, then Ivan passed very close in 2004, and then Dennis in 2005. Toss in the other canes that have hit areas within 150 miles, and that's quite a few storms for the region. Give it another several years, and then it'll be safe to say we're "overdue". Right at the moment though, we're pretty much on target.


I dont know where I read 4 years
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not really, just some showers and thunderstorms...nothing going on at the lower or mid levels.

What is worth watching though is currently located over 50W. He may try to pull some tricks when he enters the environmentally favorable Caribbean.

I was looking at that earlier too and someone mentioned it but since no-one said anything I figured it wasn't much chance with that.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Really not as much of an issue if you aren't over a former swamp. Subsidence, etc...


Ah, makes sense. They have the swamp for a base and I have the red clay.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
Quoting BioChemist:


I think you mean west? right?

Thats what that Miami education will afford you :)

Gainesville, is where its at
+1000000
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting hunkerdown:
you mean from the west, not east.
Bleh, LOL. Yeah, from the west.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


..Prob and Stats was last semester.


The key word is probability. Even an average of experimental data is only know to be the real average within a certain range for a certain probability.
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Does anyone have the ACE totals from Igor and the total for the Northern Hemisphere?
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Quoting BioChemist:


I think you mean west? right?

Thats what that Miami education will afford you :)

Gainesville, is where its at
zing!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning everyone. Any chance the blob in the eastern Caribbean could develop ?
Not really, just some showers and thunderstorms...nothing going on at the lower or mid levels.

What is worth watching though is currently located over 50W. He may try to pull some tricks when he enters the environmentally favorable Caribbean.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, if south Florida gets a hit this year it will likely come in from the east rather than the west (similar to Wilma).
you mean from the west, not east.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting divdog:
There is nothing fun about being hit by a hurricane.


... no kiddin ... it's all fun and game until someone loses a home or life :c/
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Quoting NOLAmike:


I just think it is naive for people say "We shouldn't rebuild New Orleans because it is below sea level.". By that logic, we wouldn't rebuild San Francisco or Los Angeles because they lie on major fault lines, or Naples, Italy because it's too close to a volcano or any other number of major cities for similar reasons.


Agree, New Orleans had to be rebuilt. The port alone is enough to bring it back. However, I think it should be modified to accomidate Mother Nature.
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Quoting BioChemist:
Pensacola is very over due for a Hurricane. Last one was Dennis, and Ida last year was close, but fell apart

Seems like From Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana have been lucky the last couple years.

However, I just dont see 94l being the one that breaks this streak. Its already moving NW and is level with the Cape Verdes. Am I grossly wrong?


I respectfully disagree. Pensacola sees a hurricane passing within 75 miles every 7-10 years or so. We had Erin and Opal in 1995, then Ivan passed very close in 2004, and then Dennis in 2005. Toss in the other canes that have hit areas within 150 miles, and that's quite a few storms for the region. Give it another several years, and then it'll be safe to say we're "overdue". Right at the moment though, we're pretty much on target.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Due and overdue discussion will never go away.


Statistics and odds will always hold true... on the long term
Just because you are due, does not mean it will happen. But over time, it will always prove to be the case.
I think its a good tool to use to keep the public informed and prepared for a Hurricane. Its a good thing to discuss
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Quoting NOLAmike:


I just think it is naive for people say "We shouldn't rebuild New Orleans because it is below sea level.". By that logic, we wouldn't rebuild San Francisco or Los Angeles because they lie on major fault lines, or Naples, Italy because it's too close to a volcano or any other number of major cities for similar reasons.


I get your drift. If you're rebuilding, then why not build different types of structures?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nope, then we have a pattern change coming next week into the first week of October, and we'll start getting storms forming in the Caribbean.

Just a guess ;)
We are still waiting on the pattern change. And just because the pattern changes does not mean a TC HAS TO FORM. Like Tom Cruise said .. show me the money.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


that will make it granular! OH NO!


Yep, experience shows that models are not very useful more than a few days out. They just tell us that we need to be aware that something might happen. Which we already know is true.

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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
All them Cacalacies are the same. ;6~


Ahhh, how press would love you.

KEH, Have been wondering if the shear size of Igor will cause wave heights to be as large as they were with Earl.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, if south Florida gets a hit this year it will likely come in from the east rather than the west (similar to Wilma).


I think you mean west? right?

Thats what that Miami education will afford you :)

Gainesville, is where its at
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123. srada
so it looks like Julia maybe doing a loop and coming back for a second time..wouldnt those same steering currents hold true for 94L as well since its heading north?

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122. WXTXN
Quoting divdog:
I'd say the caribbean is in great shape if all we have to worry about is a blob just about to move off Africa. Things are looking good for the caribbean and the gulf.
don't forget that something monsoonal can come up from the ITCZ... this time of year we start watching for homegrown trop development.
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Good morning everyone. Any chance the blob in the eastern Caribbean could develop ?
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Alex was upgraded to a Category 2 Hurricane w/ 110 mph winds, and a pressure of 946.

This ties the storm for the strongest June storm ever.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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