A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 270 - 220

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Check out the PSU e-WALL forecasted steering layers. Notice how they all depict the weakness to the NE of 94L. 94L then naturally gravitates towards the weakness (at a rather slow speed, I would like to point out). But then, in about 96 hours, the weakness closes, ridging builds back in, and forces 94L to band back towards the west.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Patrap had a link to an article on why New Orleans had to be rebuilt. It is an eye opener. Maybe he can find it again if anyone is interested.

But done with a "lessons learned" approach. Might make a certain amount of sense to buy out certain sections and turn into wetland/parks and increase housing density in others.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CalTex:
I just want to let any Texans on here know that the flash flood warning for the area of Brownsville, TX has been lifted.

However, now there is a flash flood warning and a special marine advisory in place for the area just south of Corpus Christi, TX.

There is a very heavy long and fairly wide rain band passing over this area, please be careful everyone.
Thanks for update-we had another inch of rain during the night, so total of 3 inches yesterday at the house.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
266. Mikla
Two UStream links to live Bermuda Web Cams..
Link 1
Link 2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You can certainly see the divot taken out of the Atlantic fairway by Igor, along with Karl's smaller take from the BOC. Still mostly untouched, though:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image


...and, of course, in the western Caribbean, the heat is definitely on:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I'm at .03 for September.

To answer your question...no...for the next 5 days according to...this qpf chart.....

That is not what i was hoping to see. Looks alot like the last three weeks. Hopefully a pattern change will happen and that high pressure will boogie on outta here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:


I get your drift. If you're rebuilding, then why not build different types of structures?


And we are. Most rebuilt homes are raised, some as much as 10 ft off the ground. Some are turning the homes into two story, with the bottom floor more of a ground-level basement, like they used to build here in NOLA in the 40's. Those are finished out with sealed concrete floors, concrete board for drywall, etc. So, changes ARE being made. We're not just building the "same old same old", unlike what I see alot of in FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BioChemist:


Why are the models not picking up on this then?
Check out post 236...it explains quite well why the models are showing what they're showing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Surf's up!



Oh, and we're just over an hour away from Favre vs. Fins... so excited dhaddy.
Well, there we go. Big wave action at the shore. Houses where they shouldn't be will get the obvious eventual treatment.
(assuming this is current and from Bermuda...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

live feed from Bermuda
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd say your mugshot turned out a little better than Dewey's, DJ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I'm at .03 for September.

To answer your question...no...for the next 5 days according to...this qpf chart.....



when I first moved to pensacola from bradenton, I thought this was the driest place in florida! Summer seems really dry here... and I love the afternoon storms in bradenton.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
(Relix) Models stick to 94L going fishing. I just don't buy it yet I mean...


I thnk the Models still picking up on the Igor and Julia paths right now. jmo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
248. IKE
Quoting divdog:
Will it ever rain again in the panhandle. I think we have .05 inches the entire month in niceville.


I'm at .03 for September.

To answer your question...no...for the next 5 days according to...this qpf chart.....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Surf's up!



Oh, and we're just over an hour away from Favre vs. Fins... so excited dhaddy.
Great picture. Loved the amazing lightning shot as well. Go Vikes!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting Neapolitan:
We can bicker and argue on this blog, talk about models ad nauseum, debate the NHC's methodologies for months...but when it comes right down to it, tropical cyclones really are beautiful and amazing creatures, aren't they? (This is Danielle from the ISS.)

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
"THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADES." That would mean that 94L would take a more westerly track, as opposed to what the model guidance is depicting.


Why are the models not picking up on this then?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A NW TO SE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH THU.
..........................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS MOVING FURTHER N OF THE
AREA...THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY
TRADES. MEANWHILE A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON WITH EASTERLY TRADES
RESUMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
Will it ever rain again in the panhandle. I think we have .05 inches the entire month in niceville.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmmm...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
Models stick to 94L going fishing. I just don't buy it yet I mean...



How!?!?


Relix... in my opinion this is why. Look at the 200-700MB layer:



Notice there's a weakness to the N of 94L. Also notice the NE/SW orientation of the flow on the low level steering you posted.

The combination of that steering, the depth of the A/B high and the proposed depth of 94L (once it develops) tells you that the system will actually feel more the weakness than the WSW to SW steering flow. You can also cycle through from Low Level steering maps to high level steering maps to get an idea on the depth of the A/B high and any weaknesses it has around it.

I foresee 94L being in a stagnant patter for a while until it can begin influencing the current steering patter to allow it to head towards the weakness unless A/B High can fill the void.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Neapolitan:

Amazing photo, thanks. I didn't have one of her either, so gladly added it to my collection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
We can bicker and argue on this blog, talk about models ad nauseum, debate the NHC's methodologies for months...but when it comes right down to it, tropical cyclones really are beautiful and amazing creatures, aren't they? (This is Danielle from the ISS.)

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Beautiful. Upload it to WU, you'll get some great feedback, I'm sure of it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
232. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTH
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A NW TO SE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH THU.
..........................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS MOVING FURTHER N OF THE
AREA...THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY
TRADES. MEANWHILE A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON WITH EASTERLY TRADES
RESUMING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC MON NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
Models stick to 94L going fishing. I just don't buy it yet I mean...



How!?!?
That is not a static map. Maybe it is blocked now but the map will change over the next few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
We can bicker and argue on this blog, talk about models ad nauseum, debate the NHC's methodologies for months...but when it comes right down to it, tropical cyclones really are beautiful and amazing creatures, aren't they? (This is Danielle from the ISS.)

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image


agree.. just for the record, I am not bitter at all! I love to debate, and mean no ill will toward anyone. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"National Hurricane Center: As Hurricane Bermuda moves north toward Bermuda, you can see it approach the Island on the Bermuda Weather Service radar."

NHC just called it Hurricane Bermuda on their Facebook page.. I thought it kinda funny :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We can bicker and argue on this blog, talk about models ad nauseum, debate the NHC's methodologies for months...but when it comes right down to it, tropical cyclones really are beautiful and amazing creatures, aren't they? (This is Danielle from the ISS.)

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 270 - 220

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron