A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 320 - 270

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting pilotguy1:


I don't think so. There's a lot more population and buildings on the east side.
I see now. I know the the population of the St. Pete/Tampa Bay area, but not the east coast. I was looking at it from the west side vs. a east side (dirty side) of the storm. Thanks for pointing that out to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yup, Igor is now officially the largest hurricane ever by diameter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Sounds like us here in PC. Last month was no better. Beginning to worry about the garden hose - can you wear one out?
Yes you can!
"The annual average precipitation at Blackfoot is 9.69 Inches. Rainfall in is fairly evenly distributed throughout the year. The wettest month of the year is May with an average rainfall of 1.33 Inches."
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
*Tweet from CycloneOz*

Live video from Bermuda (courtesy HurricaneCities.com) with our FREE CHAT ROOM is located at http://www.7674u.com!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon everyone..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now...back to my Grits and toast.

Enjoybub,yer Days,,Mmm,...Grape Jelly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Here we go wit the NOLA right to exist Party..

LOL

We doing a lot better than most..as far as well,life in General.

Its Like beating a dead rodent.


Folks will Live in Earthquake zones,,flood plains in the Midwest,,and even Nashville. Cuz its Home.

Folks in Fla rebuilt those Trailer Homes in Fla Post 92 cuz its Home.

Ill shaddup now.


+1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobertM320:
281. AllBoardedUp 11:16 AM CDT on September 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
This is the article: http://www.indiadivine.org/audarya/hinduism-forum/202487-new-orleans-geopolitical-prize.html
(Odd that the original author has taken it down and this Hindu-page is the only full version I could find...but, same words.)
Thanks!

Atmo....great article. Only three days after the storm, and he hit the nail on the head. Can't believe I never saw this before.


I musta Posted Friedmans story at Least 100 times the last 5 years easily.

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

By George Friedman
http://www.stratfor.com/news/archive...cs_katrina.php
September 01, 2005 22 30 GMT -- The American political system was
founded in Philadelphia, but the American nation was built on the
vast farmlands that stretch from the Alleghenies to the Rockies.
That farmland produced the wealth that funded American
industrialization: It permitted the formation of a class of small
landholders who, amazingly, could produce more than they could
consume. They could sell their excess crops in the east and in
Europe and save that money, which eventually became the founding
capital of American industry.

But it was not the extraordinary land nor the farmers and ranchers
who alone set the process in motion. Rather, it was geography -- the
extraordinary system of rivers that flowed through the Midwest and
allowed them to ship their surplus to the rest of the world. All of
the rivers flowed into one -- the Mississippi -- and the Mississippi
flowed to the ports in and around one city: New Orleans. It was in
New Orleans that the barges from upstream were unloaded and their
cargos stored, sold and reloaded on ocean-going vessels. Until last
Sunday, New Orleans was, in many ways, the pivot of the American
economy.

For that reason, the Battle of New Orleans in January 1815 was a key
moment in American history. Even though the battle occurred after
the War of 1812 was over, had the British taken New Orleans, we
suspect they wouldn't have given it back. Without New Orleans, the
entire Louisiana Purchase would have been valueless to the United
States. Or, to state it more precisely, the British would control
the region because, at the end of the day, the value of the Purchase
was the land and the rivers - which all converged on the Mississippi
and the ultimate port of New Orleans. The hero of the battle was
Andrew Jackson, and when he became president, his obsession with
Texas had much to do with keeping the Mexicans away from New
Orleans.

During the Cold War, a macabre topic of discussion among bored
graduate students who studied such things was this: If the Soviets
could destroy one city with a large nuclear device, which would it
be? The usual answers were Washington or New York. For me, the
answer was simple: New Orleans. If the Mississippi River was shut to
traffic, then the foundations of the economy would be shattered. The
industrial minerals needed in the factories wouldn't come in, and
the agricultural wealth wouldn't flow out. Alternative routes really
weren't available. The Germans knew it too: A U-boat campaign
occurred near the mouth of the Mississippi during World War II. Both
the Germans and Stratfor have stood with Andy Jackson: New Orleans
was the prize.

Last Sunday, nature took out New Orleans almost as surely as a
nuclear strike. Hurricane Katrina's geopolitical effect was not, in
many ways, distinguishable from a mushroom cloud. The key exit from
North America was closed. The petrochemical industry, which has
become an added value to the region since Jackson's days, was at
risk. The navigability of the Mississippi south of New Orleans was a
question mark. New Orleans as a city and as a port complex had
ceased to exist, and it was not clear that it could recover.

The ports of South Louisiana and New Orleans, which run north and
south of the city, are as important today as at any point during the
history of the republic. On its own merit, the Port of South
Louisiana is the largest port in the United States by tonnage and
the fifth-largest in the world. It exports more than 52 million tons
a year, of which more than half are agricultural products -- corn,
soybeans and so on. A larger proportion of U.S. agriculture flows
out of the port. Almost as much cargo, nearly 57 million tons, comes
in through the port -- including not only crude oil, but chemicals
and fertilizers, coal, concrete and so on.

A simple way to think about the New Orleans port complex is that it
is where the bulk commodities of agriculture go out to the world and
the bulk commodities of industrialism come in. The commodity chain
of the global food industry starts here, as does that of American
industrialism. If these facilities are gone, more than the price of
goods shifts: The very physical structure of the global economy
would have to be reshaped. Consider the impact to the U.S. auto
industry if steel doesn't come up the river, or the effect on global
food supplies if U.S. corn and soybeans don't get to the markets.

The problem is that there are no good shipping alternatives. River
transport is cheap, and most of the commodities we are discussing
have low value-to-weight ratios. The U.S. transport system was built
on the assumption that these commodities would travel to and from
New Orleans by barge, where they would be loaded on ships or
offloaded. Apart from port capacity elsewhere in the United States,
there aren't enough trucks or rail cars to handle the long-distance
hauling of these enormous quantities -- assuming for the moment that
the economics could be managed, which they can't be.

The focus in the media has been on the oil industry in Louisiana and
Mississippi. This is not a trivial question, but in a certain sense,
it is dwarfed by the shipping issue. First, Louisiana is the source
of about 15 percent of U.S.-produced petroleum, much of it from the
Gulf. The local refineries are critical to American infrastructure.
Were all of these facilities to be lost, the effect on the price of
oil worldwide would be extraordinarily painful. If the river itself
became unnavigable or if the ports are no longer functioning,
however, the impact to the wider economy would be significantly more
severe. In a sense, there is more flexibility in oil than in the
physical transport of these other commodities.

There is clearly good news as information comes in. By all accounts,
the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which services supertankers in the
Gulf, is intact. Port Fourchon, which is the center of extraction
operations in the Gulf, has sustained damage but is recoverable. The
status of the oil platforms is unclear and it is not known what the
underwater systems look like, but on the surface, the damage -
though not trivial -- is manageable.

The news on the river is also far better than would have been
expected on Sunday. The river has not changed its course. No major
levees containing the river have burst. The Mississippi apparently
has not silted up to such an extent that massive dredging would be
required to render it navigable. Even the port facilities, although
apparently damaged in many places and destroyed in few, are still
there. The river, as transport corridor, has not been lost.

What has been lost is the city of New Orleans and many of the
residential suburban areas around it. The population has fled,
leaving behind a relatively small number of people in desperate
straits. Some are dead, others are dying, and the magnitude of the
situation dwarfs the resources required to ameliorate their
condition. But it is not the population that is trapped in New
Orleans that is of geopolitical significance: It is the population
that has left and has nowhere to return to.

The oil fields, pipelines and ports required a skilled workforce in
order to operate. That workforce requires homes. They require stores
to buy food and other supplies. Hospitals and doctors. Schools for
their children. In other words, in order to operate the facilities
critical to the United States, you need a workforce to do it -- and
that workforce is gone. Unlike in other disasters, that workforce
cannot return to the region because they have no place to live. New
Orleans is gone, and the metropolitan area surrounding New Orleans
is either gone or so badly damaged that it will not be inhabitable
for a long time.

It is possible to jury-rig around this problem for a short time. But
the fact is that those who have left the area have gone to live with
relatives and friends. Those who had the ability to leave also had
networks of relationships and resources to manage their exile. But
those resources are not infinite -- and as it becomes apparent that
these people will not be returning to New Orleans any time soon,
they will be enrolling their children in new schools, finding new
jobs, finding new accommodations. If they have any insurance money
coming, they will collect it. If they have none, then -- whatever
emotional connections they may have to their home -- their economic
connection to it has been severed. In a very short time, these
people will be making decisions that will start to reshape
population and workforce patterns in the region.

A city is a complex and ongoing process - one that requires physical
infrastructure to support the people who live in it and people to
operate that physical infrastructure. We don't simply mean power
plants or sewage treatment facilities, although they are critical.
Someone has to be able to sell a bottle of milk or a new shirt.
Someone has to be able to repair a car or do surgery. And the people
who do those things, along with the infrastructure that supports
them, are gone -- and they are not coming back anytime soon.

It is in this sense, then, that it seems almost as if a nuclear
weapon went off in New Orleans. The people mostly have fled rather
than died, but they are gone. Not all of the facilities are
destroyed, but most are. It appears to us that New Orleans and its
environs have passed the point of recoverability. The area can
recover, to be sure, but only with the commitment of massive
resources from outside -- and those resources would always be at
risk to another Katrina.

The displacement of population is the crisis that New Orleans faces.
It is also a national crisis, because the largest port in the United
States cannot function without a city around it. The physical and
business processes of a port cannot occur in a ghost town, and right
now, that is what New Orleans is. It is not about the facilities,
and it is not about the oil. It is about the loss of a city's
population and the paralysis of the largest port in the United
States.

Let's go back to the beginning. The United States historically has
depended on the Mississippi and its tributaries for transport.
Barges navigate the river. Ships go on the ocean. The barges must
offload to the ships and vice versa. There must be a facility to
empower this exchange. It is also the facility where goods are
stored in transit. Without this port, the river can't be used.
Protecting that port has been, from the time of the Louisiana
Purchase, a fundamental national security issue for the United
States.

Katrina has taken out the port -- not by destroying the facilities,
but by rendering the area uninhabited and potentially uninhabitable.
That means that even if the Mississippi remains navigable, the
absence of a port near the mouth of the river makes the Mississippi
enormously less useful than it was. For these reasons, the United
States has lost not only its biggest port complex, but also the
utility of its river transport system -- the foundation of the
entire American transport system. There are some substitutes, but
none with sufficient capacity to solve the problem.

It follows from this that the port will have to be revived and, one
would assume, the city as well. The ports around New Orleans are
located as far north as they can be and still be accessed by ocean-
going vessels. The need for ships to be able to pass each other in
the waterways, which narrow to the north, adds to the problem.
Besides, the Highway 190 bridge in Baton Rouge blocks the river
going north. New Orleans is where it is for a reason: The United
States needs a city right there.

New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial
infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but
exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a
city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating.
The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be
opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to
endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the
city will return because it has to.

Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the
way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New
Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its
safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if
it is in the worst imaginable place.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At 156 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Here we go wit the NOLA right to exist Party..

LOL

We doing a lot better than most..as far as well,life in General.

Its Like beating a dead rodent.


Folks will Live in Earthquake zones,,flood plains in the Midwest,,and even Nashville. Cuz its Home.

Folks in Fla rebuilt those Trailer Homes in Fla Post 92 cuz its Home.

Ill shaddup now.


Amen Pat!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Mikla:
I think you can see this in this GFS run.
Exactly. It goes northward into the weakness, but then turns westward due to the weakness filling in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
281. AllBoardedUp 11:16 AM CDT on September 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
This is the article: http://www.indiadivine.org/audarya/hinduism-forum/202487-new-orleans-geopolitical-prize.html
(Odd that the original author has taken it down and this Hindu-page is the only full version I could find...but, same words.)
Thanks!

Atmo....great article. Only three days after the storm, and he hit the nail on the head. Can't believe I never saw this before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting divdog:
Will it ever rain again in the panhandle. I think we have .05 inches the entire month in niceville.


Sounds like us here in PC. Last month was no better. Beginning to worry about the garden hose - can you wear one out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
302. Mikla
I think you can see this in this GFS run.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes. There is a weakness located to the NE of 94L. What 94L will want to do is move right into that weakness. So, he will. But, as he gravitates towards that weakness, the weakness should close, and thus force the cyclone back towards the west as a more zonal flow dominates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
But done with a "lessons learned" approach. Might make a certain amount of sense to buy out certain sections and turn into wetland/parks and increase housing density in others.
Agree! I do think individuals ought to be responsible for their own circumstances, and the local government for their own infrastructure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here we go wit the NOLA right to exist Party..

LOL

We doing a lot better than most..as far as well,life in General.

Its Like beating a dead rodent.


Folks will Live in Earthquake zones,,flood plains in the Midwest,,and even Nashville. Cuz its Home.

Folks in Fla rebuilt those Trailer Homes in Fla Post 92 cuz its Home.

Ill shaddup now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


I think if you drank a bottle of Tequila and then flipped a regular coin 30 times and added the times it turned up heads to your age, multiplied the amount of times it turned up tails by your Latitude, and subtracted the date (just the day) from your age and drank no more than a half a bottle of Tequila each day for every time there is a Tropical system on the NHC site and added your longitude to the amount of times you flipped the coin squared, divide by the square root and make that the Longitude and take the year of your birthday, divided by the invest number that day and divide that number by the amount of times the coin came up heads, that will be the Latitude.
This formula will tell where the next Cat 4 strike will be. Unfortunately, due to the amount of brain lubricant used (Tequila) the season will be over before you can figure it out.


Lol!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CalTex:


You're just south of Victoria, aren't you? Take a look at the radar from Corpus Christi, we came out smelling like a rose in comparison.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Legend/N0R/CRP_N0R_Legend_0.gif
Computer not cooperating-has not had enough coffee this morning!lol Anyway, looks like the rain is gonna just walk up the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, Igor now "officially" has the largest windfield on record...

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT.......150NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT.......300NE 250SE 200SW 300NW.

Wikipedia:
Rank Hurricane Season Diameter(mi) (km)
1 Igor 2010 633 1,018
2 Faith 1966 605 973
3 Gabrielle 1989 600 966


Can you imagine all the warnings that would be up if this had taken Earl's track or even further west?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Worst Senerio Track for Florida:

Shift that track to the west coast of Florida and it would be an even worser (is that a word,lol) case scenario.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've noticed how Hurricanes have a way of dissipating before they get to Bermuda. We've had several storms this year that were expected to be major hurricanes (cat 3+) as they neared Bermuda. But each time they significantly weaken as they reach Bermuda's latitude.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
But done with a "lessons learned" approach. Might make a certain amount of sense to buy out certain sections and turn into wetland/parks and increase housing density in others.


Shen, you know, that was suggested after Katrina. They wanted people to move in closer, to avoid the dreaded Jack-o-lantern effect we now have in a lot of neighborhoods. IIRC, they even talked about trading land with people if they would move closer in.

However, many people, especially in the East, took the stand that their particular lot was "theirs" and they had a "right" to live there. What the city should have done was say, "yes, you have a "right" to live there, but we (the city) also have the "right" to not provide services (sewerage, water, police, garbage collection, cable) to those parts of the city. Hard choice, and Ray-Ray wouldn't make it because it alienated his base.

And so, we have what we have. But we are learning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rain still coming down in Corpus Christi from the remnants of Karl. 4.5 inches and counting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You're the Storm- The Cardigans
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The video has been back in forth, but it is working most of the time. Conditions are now really deteriorating in Bermuda.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
290. beell
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Bermuda is in for a prolonged period of crappy weather. Lucky for them IGOR is off of its peak. I am curious why the storm is weakening so much tho.


Same-o, same-o
S/SW wind shear
Dry air (shear allowing a path into the core)
Cooler SST's
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
287. IKE
108 hr. GFS....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txraysfan:
Thanks for update-we had another inch of rain during the night, so total of 3 inches yesterday at the house.


You're just south of Victoria, aren't you? Take a look at the radar from Corpus Christi, we came out smelling like a rose in comparison.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Legend/N0R/CRP_N0R_Legend_0.gif
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Bermuda is in for a prolonged period of crappy weather. Lucky for them IGOR is off of its peak. I am curious why the storm is weakening so much tho.
As of 12z, 19kt of vertical wind shear are affecting the system. That number should continue to increase, and consequently, Igor should continue to weaken. Dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures are also playing a role in the decay of Igor.

SHEAR (KT) 19 22 28 23 25 31 40 45 41 44 32 27 35
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
282. IKE
Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 22 sec ago
Heavy Rain
77 °F
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 48 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 69 mph
Pressure: 29.27 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.5 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
This is the article: http://www.indiadivine.org/audarya/hinduism-forum/202487-new-orleans-geopolitical-prize.html
(Odd that the original author has taken it down and this Hindu-page is the only full version I could find...but, same words.)
Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BioChemist:


thanks.
The steering layers thing still confuses me a bit. I think I am going to get a Meteorology text to read.. if I can find the time between my actual studies.

With igor between two highs lit looked like it could jump from the eastern one to the western one, because the hole between them was small. It looks like a similar situation for 94l. But you are saying that whole will close, leaving it no choice but to go west?
Yes. There is a weakness located to the NE of 94L. What 94L will want to do is move right into that weakness. So, he will. But, as he gravitates towards that weakness, the weakness should close, and thus force the cyclone back towards the west as a more zonal flow dominates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bermuda is in for a prolonged period of crappy weather. Lucky for them IGOR is off of its peak. I am curious why the storm is weakening so much tho.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... assuming 94L doesn't intensify faster than expected to prevent further deterioration of the weakness.
Exactly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Like an average Florida thunderstorm...

Latest Conditions
At L.F.Wade Int. Airport
Recorded at 1:03 pm
Rain
Temp.: 25°C/78°F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: E 42G54 kt

One difference, this will continue for the next 24 hrs. We will later see gusts over 110MPH..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


Apparently by definition, I am.
What was the sample size?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Check out the PSU e-WALL forecasted steering layers. Notice how they all depict the weakness to the NE of 94L. 94L then naturally gravitates towards the weakness (at a rather slow speed, I would like to point out). But then, in about 96 hours, the weakness closes, ridging builds back in, and forces 94L to band back towards the west.



thanks.
The steering layers thing still confuses me a bit. I think I am going to get a Meteorology text to read.. if I can find the time between my actual studies.

With igor between two highs lit looked like it could jump from the eastern one to the western one, because the hole between them was small. It looks like a similar situation for 94l. But you are saying that whole will close, leaving it no choice but to go west?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Check out the PSU e-WALL forecasted steering layers. Notice how they all depict the weakness to the NE of 94L. 94L then naturally gravitates towards the weakness (at a rather slow speed, I would like to point out). But then, in about 96 hours, the weakness closes, ridging builds back in, and forces 94L to band back towards the west.



Indeed... assuming 94L doesn't intensify faster than expected to prevent further deterioration of the weakness.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Check out the PSU e-WALL forecasted steering layers. Notice how they all depict the weakness to the NE of 94L. 94L then naturally gravitates towards the weakness (at a rather slow speed, I would like to point out). But then, in about 96 hours, the weakness closes, ridging builds back in, and forces 94L to band back towards the west.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 320 - 270

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
79 °F
Scattered Clouds