A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:
geez i have 6.3 inches of rain since midnight more to come still flooding around


I hope you have a canoe handy, the radar out of Corpus Christi looks nasty for your area.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Major in Miami?



And then a second time for the Carolinas...Lot's of wait and see over the next 7-10 days. We all know that track discussion is worth nothing more than something to talk about at this point. We just can't forecast that far out with any accuracy yet.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Lisa is likely out of 94L, getting really organized
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
LOL!...I guess for the non-NOLA's I should point out that a large part of greater New Oleans is across the river on the west bank of the Mississippi.;^)
and ya have to drive East across the river to get there :)
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Good Afternoon!

Just recovering from my morning 10 mile swim, I mean run, same thing in this humidity. I see the GFS is cooking something up for FL. Is there support from other models for this also?
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txraysfan:

I didn't live in Victoria last year, but my nephew said that is was unusually hot last summer even in CA we kept hearing about the TX drought (of course we had one too).

I just heard something interesting on the WC. We've been discussing here why Igor's lower-level winds seemed to have been less than was expected. This guy on the WC said that when a storm has had some dry air mixed into it, it makes it more difficult for the intense upper-level winds to mix down through the storm.

Bermuda is going to be to the east of Igor's pass and he's dryer on that side, so this bodes well for the island.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Palestine?
LOL!...I guess for the non-NOLA's I should point out that a large part of greater New Oleans is across the river on the west bank of the Mississippi.;^)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting Patrap:
Here we go wit the NOLA right to exist Party..

LOL

We doing a lot better than most..as far as well,life in General.

Its Like beating a dead rodent.


Folks will Live in Earthquake zones,,flood plains in the Midwest,,and even Nashville. Cuz its Home.

Folks in Fla rebuilt those Trailer Homes in Fla Post 92 cuz its Home.

Ill shaddup now.
We hear the same thing around here in the Greater Houston area. We live here because of jobs. If we were all to pick up and leave the rest of the nation would feel the effects. Petroleum and chemical row!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Palestine?
Ummm, no. West bank of the MS river, opposite from most of New Orleans, proper, on the east bank.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Thats not going to Happen.


You can't say that.
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Quoting IKE:
South Florida in the bullseye on the 12Z GFS @ 324 hours....



This has been the most times I have seen the GFS hit FL on a yet to be system. I hope this never happens.
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When the GFS shows run after run with development..it's for real. The best model without a doubt sniffing out development in 2010.
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I might add that it was supposed to have speeds of upward to 200 mph. A 4 hour trip from Houston to Dallas would be reduced to an hour or hour and a half.
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344. srada
Quoting WxLogic:
GFS 336HR:



GFS is being quite stubborn at trying to spin something out late next week. We shall see...


it looks like it gets stronger as it heads up the east coast..not usually how I seen in done with systems hitting fl and exiting off in the eastern atlantic..interesting..
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Quoting RobertM320:


And we are. Most rebuilt homes are raised, some as much as 10 ft off the ground. Some are turning the homes into two story, with the bottom floor more of a ground-level basement, like they used to build here in NOLA in the 40's. Those are finished out with sealed concrete floors, concrete board for drywall, etc. So, changes ARE being made. We're not just building the "same old same old", unlike what I see alot of in FL.
When I lived on the West Bank I had an old Shotgun style home built in 1910. It was built on brick pillars and was in Algiers in a higher area so the ground floor was 16' above sealevel. That plase had never flooded. My sister-in-law says that house is still there. We could probably learn some lessons in construction from how people built before they started depending on the levee system. IMHO.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
GFS 336HR:



GFS is being quite stubborn at trying to spin something out late next week. We shall see...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: How many named storms will this season finish with?

A: 11-13
B. 14-16
C. 17-19
D. 20-22

I'm stuck...I'll say C


B
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Post #328, Texas threw around a similar plan with a corridor running from Galveston to Houston, to Dallas/Fort Worth, to Austin/San Antonio, to Houston.

It basically made a big triangle between these major cities.
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338. IKE
South Florida in the bullseye on the 12Z GFS @ 324 hours....

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Poll time!

Q: How many named storms will this season finish with?

A: 11-13
B. 14-16
C. 17-19
D. 20-22

I'm stuck...I'll say C
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Quoting CalTex:


Take a look at this page, I'm kind of glad that this thing didn't start in the middle of the gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
I agree with that. Last year, we were so dry, could fall in cracks in the yards. This year, sink up to your knees in mud! lol
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
If You Live in Florida or in the South Eastren United States , Your Going to Be Excited about what im about to Tell you.

Having Visted France and Switzerland this Summer, i Rode High Speed Rail.

Now High Speed Rail is Coming to the United States:

The Phase From Tampa to Orlando is Currently Being Built/Planned. It was Approved by the Federal Government.

"The Tampa-Orlando line will run 84 miles from downtown Tampa to Orlando International Airport. The cost to build this line is projected to be $2.7 billion. The project will be built in the median of Interstate 4, where a 44 foot envelope has been preserved for this purpose."

Phase 2: Orlando to Miami is Currently in Evaluation Stages.




So Now your asking yourself if you live in the South, but you dont live in florida why is this important to me?

The Dream is that One Day you Can Board a Bullet Train at Miami and Be in New Orleans in a Day.

Its also Clean Energy and Clears up Road Congestion.

- Thanks for Reading.


sammy, I can board my car in New Orleans and be in Miami in a day now...and stop whenever I want, which helps the local economy in those towns I stop in. LOL
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Man did Bermuda luck out. It was looking like a few days ago Igor was going to maintain major status with a decent eyewall intact heading for Bermuda. Looking at the radar it looks like there might not even be an eyewall left. Looks like Igor is turning extratropical right now.
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331. IKE
216 hours, GFS....

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Igor has caused two deaths in the Caribbean.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've been sick as a dog for the past week.


:(

Well, that doesn't sound like too much fun. I hope you get better soon. :)

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Quoting FLdewey:
Thinking about it I think if you had a 10 sided coin and you flipped it 30 times, you'd likely see 10 times the number of storms.
If you had a coin like that you'd have a heck of a time spending it storms or no storms. Besides it would probably bring you bad luck if you carried it around.

I have a slow connection and can't stream video. Anybody know of a verbal play by play verbal report on storm from Bermuda?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Bad day?
Tired?

Hey :)


I've been sick as a dog for the past week.
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Quoting txraysfan:
Computer not cooperating-has not had enough coffee this morning!lol Anyway, looks like the rain is gonna just walk up the coast.


Take a look at this page, I'm kind of glad that this thing didn't start in the middle of the gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
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Post #310, maybe that's why is stuck in my head!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Afternoon everyone..


Bad day?
Tired?

Hey :)
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Quoting pilotguy1:


I don't think so. There's a lot more population and buildings on the east side.
I see now. I know the the population of the St. Pete/Tampa Bay area, but not the east coast. I was looking at it from the west side vs. a east side (dirty side) of the storm. Thanks for pointing that out to me.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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