A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:

lol well my cowboys are on lol im watching it and on here lol
Good luck to em! Hoping the weather does not mess up satellite.
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ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 100919060000
2010091906
14.9 330.1
16.6 327.1
100
13.8 330.7
190700
1009190700
1
WTNT21 KNGU 190700
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 29.9W TO 16.6N 32.9W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL GUIDANCE ARE DEPICTING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF A 1009 MB LOW SITUATED 370 NM WEST OF PRAIA, CAPE
VERDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 08 KNOTS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS MORE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL
FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 200700Z.//

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94L/T.C.F.A.

STORM TROOPER KOTG

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If you think a major storm would be good for an economy then you need to read up on the "Broken Window Theory." Might have to Google it. I read up on it in a book called Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt. You might be able to read this book online.

Be sure to read it from an Austrian School of Economics point of view.
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409. hercj
Quoting Chicklit:
Re: Post 310 (Patrap)
I musta Posted Friedmans story at Least 100 times the last 5 years easily.

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

By George Friedman
http://www.stratfor.com/news/archive...cs_katrina.php
September 01, 2005 22 30 GMT

Patrick, I've never read that.
Great journalism.
Thanks for posting it again.

Friedman's not exactly a journalist. Ex CIA analyst who now runs a private company in Austin called STRATFOR. Strategic Forecast. Geopolitical analysis and the like. Really smart guy. STRATFOR.com
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Quoting Vero1:


Yes...Just think of all those houses that are in foreclosure and will not be boarded/shuttered up.
Agreed. Let's hope the neighbors try to corral the potential flying debris.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting txraysfan:
We sure don't need it. See several taking football break-mine will be baseball-lol go rays!!
Mine will be Sprint Cup, then football. DVR. Not liking the models much.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
404. Vero1
Quoting KanKunKid:


Look on the bright side: It would be good for Florida's economy, and it just might wash away that funk that's been hanging over it since '07.


Yes...Just think of all those houses that are in foreclosure and will not be boarded/shuttered up.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
End of GFS. SE Coast from Miami on up is not having a good day.


My only question: do I show wife now and get permission to get whatever I want from Home Depot or do I wait and pull this out when I am in hot water as a topic changer?
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There seems to be a tall wall running along I-10 in Houston. It's been raining for several days in row South of Houston and Galveston area but I don't think anyone is getting rain north of I-10.

Can anyone living in North Houston confirm this, or is it my imagination?
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If the GFS is correct September would total 7 named storms.
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397. Relix
94L should go fishing. There's a deep through coming down from Europe and north Africa which should pick it up.
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Quoting tkeith:
and ya have to drive East across the river to get there :)


I shoulda' read further down and saved myself a post...wait, two posts! LOL
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
LOL!...I guess for the non-NOLA's I should point out that a large part of greater New Oleans is across the river on the west bank of the Mississippi.;^)


Which, of course, is East of the East Bank! LOL
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Quoting btwntx08:
shoot more rain coming from the south from mexico coming
We sure don't need it. See several taking football break-mine will be baseball-lol go rays!!
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350. DestinJeff 4:48 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

He was here late last night, but the blog had degenerated into a teenage chat room by then and I'm sure he left disgusted.
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is it safe ??
(snicker)

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381. srada
well Im out till later..football all day with the ending tonight of manning vs manning! Everyone have a good day!
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Quoting Chicklit:

MH09, so where is this system supposed to be coming from? Is the same one that is showing mid-north florida the one that is showing SFL?
It looks to me like it develops from the Monsoonal trough which is located in the SW Caribbean. The system then appears to get picked up by a trough and affects the entire SE U.S.

Yes, this is the same system that the GFS has had affecting the Gulf coast...but has now switched to eastern Florida.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Extremely large and powerful hurricane on the GFS 12z:



extremely scary!!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


That's one big envelope.
Who the heck wants to mail a train anyhow?
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Jim Cantore was live on the WC from Bermuda. The beaches on the southern end of the islands are pretty much gone already and Igor's eye still has about 100 miles to go to reach it.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ouch. Me no like. What I would like to point out is the fact that the GFS has been very consistent with the development of this cyclone and the fact that the Caribbean is prime to pop a major.

Specifics in track and intensity mean nothing in the long-range.

MH09, so where is this system supposed to be coming from? Is the same one that is showing mid-north florida the one that is showing SFL?
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Extremely large and powerful hurricane on the GFS 12z:

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Re: Post 310 (Patrap)
I musta Posted Friedmans story at Least 100 times the last 5 years easily.

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

By George Friedman
http://www.stratfor.com/news/archive...cs_katrina.php
September 01, 2005 22 30 GMT

Patrick, I've never read that.
Great journalism.
Thanks for posting it again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Major in Miami?

Ouch. Me no like. What I would like to point out is the fact that the GFS has been very consistent with the development of this cyclone and the fact that the Caribbean is prime to pop a major.

Specifics in track and intensity mean nothing in the long-range.
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Quoting btwntx08:
geez i have 6.3 inches of rain since midnight more to come still flooding around


I hope you have a canoe handy, the radar out of Corpus Christi looks nasty for your area.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.