A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Igor:



Julia:

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469. xcool
I have to throw gfs it out the window
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
468. Vero1
Look at all that Low Pressure to work with.

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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Post #328, Texas threw around a similar plan with a corridor running from Galveston to Houston, to Dallas/Fort Worth, to Austin/San Antonio, to Houston.

It basically made a big triangle between these major cities.


I wish they would. If I could get from here to Houston without driving through the Neverending Construction Zone in Corsicana, I'd visit friends more often.
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Quoting BenBIogger:
12z GFS
324hrs (long-range)
That is one extremely impressive and large cyclone. Looks to be Igor sized.

Yes, Igor is the largest hurricane by diameter on record.
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Hey PSL.

lmao doorman :) Personally, not a fan of the show though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16872
Quoting hercj:

Friedman's not exactly a journalist. Ex CIA analyst who now runs a private company in Austin called STRATFOR. Strategic Forecast. Geopolitical analysis and the like. Really smart guy. STRATFOR.com

Oh, thanks hercj,looks like he's not only smart but also a leader.

In related news, just came across this in my coursework in public administration. If you want to get word out of something happening (or not happening) in your community, this forum will help you to organize a public meeting.
AmericaSpeaks

Here is a link to a map showing projects this forum has helped to facilitate: AmericaSpeaksProjectMap
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Quoting WxLogic:


GFS is quicker at trying to spin it up than the GFS by almost a week.

12Z ECMWF sure will be one to look forward to for either consistency on a weak disturbance or the strengthening of such... like GFS and/or NGP.
Yeah. Both the CMC and NOGAPS (specifically the NOGAPS) develop the disturbance near 50W after it interacts with the monsoonal trough.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Beautiful pic KEH! Going to head out to Folly later and check out the waves again. Curious as to how they will compare to Earl's.



I will address this, since you have decided to come in and discuss this with the community. No one ran anyone off; those are the plain simple facts. I have been known to take some heat over the years and I am still here because it is my choice. I can deal with the heat and know that it is an inherent part of the blogosphere. When someone was given a second chance by Dr M and the members of this community, and they decide to self implode for a second time...They have only themselves to blame for it. Anyone who has the nerve to say they are "better than the NHC", and no they were not talking about with one storm or in one instance, is not exactly stable. I am sorry, but no one can sit at home with their personal pc, read Bastardi, look at a few maps, and in turn be better than the NHC (especially considering that the forecasts did not include forecast points upon which to verify the synopsis). Next, when one has an inferiority complex that only allows them to deal with people that agree with them; they are bound to failure in certain environments. This is an environment where everyone is entitled to their opinions. While you don't have to respect everyone's opinion; you certainly have to be able to respect their right to have their opinion. Furthermore, if you are an "expert" then you should be able to back up or at least have the ability to defend and debate your points of view. This blog was ridiculed with "poofs" and "so's" that would have made a "3rd grader" proud. For an adult to act as such, they can only expect for it to be pointed out.

One more time because I think this is a very important point. No one ran anyone off, people may choose to leave, people may fondle their own self destruct button; it is always a bad idea.

Congratulations, Storm Junkie, very well said!!!
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12z GFS
324hrs (long-range)
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Quoting DestinJeff:
The BP well is effectively dead now.
That is good news.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
452. xcool
gfs lost 12z .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
See ya'll later! Bermuda, take care-hoping the best for you with weather.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Not to mention, that would be great for the blogosphere right about now :)
LOL. Hey SJ.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS...Link

12Z CMC...


NGP is quicker at trying to spin it up than the GFS by almost a week.

12Z ECMWF sure will be one to look forward to for either consistency on a weak disturbance or the strengthening of such... like GFS and/or NGP.
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448. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What I want is a slow, fat, wet tropical storm heading from Cedar Key to me. For four days. And making up my rainfall deficit. Not for the month. The year.

Yes, I'm ambitious in my wants.


Soak-caster!
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SJ,

I think you been watching to much Jersey Shores my man lol!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What I want is a slow, fat, wet tropical storm heading from Cedar Key to me. For four days. And making up my rainfall deficit. Not for the month. The year.

Yes, I'm ambitious in my wants.


Not to mention, that would be great for the blogosphere right about now :)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16872
Quoting sammywammybamy:


A Slow Moving Tropical Depression Would be Ideal For you.

However with all that Heat in the GOM....


That's kind of what we had with TD5. Lingered around for most of August. Gave us half of the total for the year.
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Quoting txraysfan:
Good luck to em! Hoping the weather does not mess up satellite.
I'm doing both..Cutler's going to need a "three question test" soon! Lots of spin with 94l...Lisa?
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Like I mentioned yesterday, and pardon the pun, this site will weather the storm!

I hope!
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Looking at the loops, we have some kind of circulation forming with the wave off Africa, Should see a Color soon:



For animation, go here.
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435. Relix
Cape Verde should close shop after the last wave off Africa. Seems like the Antilles will not get much action aside from Earl this season.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
Quoting DestinJeff:
End of GFS. SE Coast from Miami on up is not having a good day.


that looks almost identical to my theorized worst case track for a storm. ie Major goes up the coast from florida to New England. good news is its over a week out
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Quoting IKE:


It's been extremely dry since Sept. 1st.


lol, thats about the time the tropics heated up.
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429. IKE
12Z NOGAPS...Link

12Z CMC...
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You stabbed my state right in the eye Sammy!
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Looks like we'll have TD #14 tonight.
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425. IKE
Quoting sammywammybamy:
IKE, I Feel your Pain... Look at your County.



It's been extremely dry since Sept. 1st.
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I say 90% at 2 that looks closed.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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