A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 520 - 470

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting NRAamy:
Dashboard cowman!

:)


Amyyyyy
Had to go back to my navigator. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
519. IKE
12Z ECMWF @ 24 hours...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The video is coming out of Bermuda, yes.

Here is another. Wonder how the boats will do through this.






Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting KanKunKid:


You and your reckless forecasting! Have you no shame!
I see no sign of it. But those models could use some. They never 'fess up when they get things wrong.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
80% it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191753
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1325 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING.
ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER
TODAY OR ON MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 5 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
...IGOR LASHING BERMUDA...
2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 19
Location: 30.8°N 65.7°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: N at 16 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb


At least he is picking up forward speed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
Igor may be the 1st 40.0 storm has for has AC gos if it can hold a few more days


Igor's ACE will definitely pass 39 at the 5pm TWO, which will make him simultaneously more energetic than either Wilma or Ike. (2004's Ivan is next up with 70+. Igor's not going anywhere near that neighborhood.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cmahan:


I wish they would. If I could get from here to Houston without driving through the Neverending Construction Zone in Corsicana, I'd visit friends more often.
I hear ya! Although I have flown (whopping 5 times) in my life, I still don't like it. Especially with the Air Nazi Checkpoints one has to endure nowadays!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
505. IKE
...IGOR LASHING BERMUDA...
2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 19
Location: 30.8°N 65.7°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: N at 16 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...IGOR LASHING BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...IGOR LASHING BERMUDA...

2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 19
Location: 30.8°N 65.7°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: N at 16 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
09 did you see my post?
Yeah. Igor will likely be able to achieve 40 units of ACE before making an extratropical/post-tropical transition.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Igor:



Julia:



I will give Julia this, she is tenacious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
09 did you see my post?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormJunkie, good post! While I did like the information I read from (that person we're not supposed to mention) I do feel a person needs to develop a thick hide if he/she is going to post on blog.

The thing that has always floored me about a lot of people on here is their in ability to recognize when others are just trying to stir the pot. Example, a blogger could come on here and say a CAT 5 will hit Chicago and people would respond as if the person saying it were serious. It simply amazes me!

Then you have the few on here (I won't mention names) who are obsessed with JFV and trying to get him off the blog. He throws out the bait and they bite every single time. He doesn't bother one bit (and I'm not taking up for him), but ones who are obsessed with do! It reminds me of the Wiley Coyote and the Roadrunner, or Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd. He would just toy with them.

Maybe my computer is faster than others (I have high speed internet) but I don't ever have anyone on ignore, nor do I report them. I just skim on through and read the post I want to read. In other words, I don't bite on their little games.

Okay, If you don't like what I said then you can ignore me (not put me on Ignore) go on to the next post. It really does work for me.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WaterWitch11:
miamihurricanes09, is this in bermuda?
The video is coming out of Bermuda, yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Definitely over water. No question about it. I will brook no argument.


I do have an itty-bitty 'pond' south of me that like to stir things up once in a while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
miamihurricanes09, is this in bermuda?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Igor may be the 1st 40.0 storm has for has AC gos if it can hold a few more days
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think 94L will get classified a tropical depression later today.


Yup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Beautiful pic KEH! Going to head out to Folly later and check out the waves again. Curious as to how they will compare to Earl's.



I will address this, since you have decided to come in and discuss this with the community. No one ran anyone off; those are the plain simple facts. I have been known to take some heat over the years and I am still here because it is my choice. I can deal with the heat and know that it is an inherent part of the blogosphere. When someone was given a second chance by Dr M and the members of this community, and they decide to self implode for a second time...They have only themselves to blame for it. Anyone who has the nerve to say they are "better than the NHC", and no they were not talking about with one storm or in one instance, is not exactly stable. I am sorry, but no one can sit at home with their personal pc, read Bastardi, look at a few maps, and in turn be better than the NHC (especially considering that the forecasts did not include forecast points upon which to verify the synopsis). Next, when one has an inferiority complex that only allows them to deal with people that agree with them; they are bound to failure in certain environments. This is an environment where everyone is entitled to their opinions. While you don't have to respect everyone's opinion; you certainly have to be able to respect their right to have their opinion. Furthermore, if you are an "expert" then you should be able to back up or at least have the ability to defend and debate your points of view. This blog was ridiculed with "poofs" and "so's" that would have made a "3rd grader" proud. For an adult to act as such, they can only expect for it to be pointed out.

One more time because I think this is a very important point. No one ran anyone off, people may choose to leave, people may fondle their own self destruct button; it is always a bad idea.



Well said SJ. +1000 Wish the blog had a "like" button.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
489. Vero1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
488. IKE
Lowest pressure with Igor at 30.7N and 65.8W.......

950.0 mb
(~ 28.05 inHg)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
by the way 09 Igor AC this hit 39.0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


I thought I was the only one that used that site. Nice one, huh?


Yup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah. Both the CMC and NOGAPS (specifically the NOGAPS) develop the disturbance near 50W after it interacts with the monsoonal trough.


Which we can pretty much thank Igor for causing it to lift northward:



Another piece of energy is east of the Lee/Windward Islands moving also W to WNW which should add to the further destabilization across the C and W Carib...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think 94L will get classified a tropical depression later today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
480. Vero1
Quoting xcool:
I have to throw gfs it out the window


I hope so!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


Just where in the NW Caribbean dost thou thinkest it will hatcheth?
Definitely over water. No question about it. I will brook no argument.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
Models stick to 94L going fishing. I just don't buy it yet I mean...



How!?!?

I agree Relix ...
see post 192: 94 L IS A go ...
(5 reasons for calling it a TD now or very soon)

Look at the Floater on 94L
Check different views - can see the eye on visual and rainbow before it pops outflow (black mark on late Dvorak). Find the center of circulation and see it move WSW along with the "dry" layer. It's at about 15N 31 W trending WSW with the WSW flow to the north it. I watched 94L spin up last night (its been going ~18 hrs) and this AM it has moved south at least a little. Can also see earlier pictures at CIMSS - see the difference in center/eye positions tween older CIMSS and current Floater - it started with a series firing north to south and drew the eye - I think it will go WSW along with the storms along the SAL intrusion. or at least W for a while.
Look at the WV and Rainbow below:

HOT (Rainbow)

and JUICY (WV)

Dry layer not so dry - 94L has already dented it - Julia and Igor been spewing in front of and on it for days.
See the Steering map Relix posted: the green soft spot (Julia's remnant wake) is being pushed WSW and 94 L IS A goin' after it. We will see if this dog can hunt - can call her a puppy but she's growing fast and heading for 29-30 SST zone to W and SW. If it goes W at 14N or lower looks like Julia/Igor return flow will keep it near 14/15N and it has the options of dying (HAH!) or hitting the Windwards
(or hitting SA?! or backing up?? -- hmm it could get into a cat fight with the next storm in this next, almost current CV pair aleady stole some circulatin from the one behind...we will see).
The drier layer sliding by 94L fired off the whole system last night - storms all along its edge - has hot bridge back to African wave

Further out on the stout limb I go because 18hrs of study and a week of watching Igor lead me to think this is the likely scenario from the CV:
94L TD now - 94L TS Lisa today - Hurricane in a few days - likely: major by mid-week below 20N heading WEST with another TC behind it.
But that's easy - what storm hasn't gone major in the last month? See the storms firing off at >50mph shooting on spiral paths to the 94L center - nearing TS now. Look at the visual floater NOW - 94L is about to disappear further under the outflow.

Eyes on deflating Igor grinding away at little Bermuda is the main event for sure - Thankfully Igor is in a death spiral.
Blessed Be Bermuda!

Looking at models is fine too, but don't forget to observe the next storm. 94L IS A goin' on a track to mebbe start the GOM/CAR tinder on fire if the GOM/CAR doesn't go up in multiple TCs this week on its own.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah. Both the CMC and NOGAPS (specifically the NOGAPS) develop the disturbance near 50W after it interacts with the monsoonal trough.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

the gfs is better than the gfs lol


LOL... Sorry I updated it. I guess that's the level of importance in my mind between GFS and NGP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Igor:



Julia:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 520 - 470

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.