A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting aislinnpaps:


That works for me. *S*


Not for me, I live well south of the Big Bend.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Have a great day, Surfmom!

I follow Lake Charles as well. Hopefully this time next week it is saying the exact same thing.


Actually, I'm kind of hoping they reference how cool it is this time next week.

:-)

Hope everyone has a great day.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
Quoting Mikla:
The wave that just left the coast I would expect to get a circle today... and there is another just coming out of centeral Africa...

interesting thing on this sat pic is you can see the first Low in Spain withit's trailng cold front which marks the beginning of the end for CV season
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Quoting IKE:
Based on the model runs I've seen and the discussions I've read from weather offices in the SE USA, the northern GOM(Louisiana, eastward to the big bend of Florida), may be protected from tropical systems by...high pressure this week and a couple of cold fronts moving through the next 7-12 days.


That works for me. *S*
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
2316. IKE
Based on the model runs I've seen and the discussions I've read from weather offices in the SE USA, the northern GOM(Louisiana, eastward to the big bend of Florida), may be protected from tropical systems by...high pressure this week and a couple of cold fronts moving through the next 7-12 days.
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Quoting sailingallover:

I'm in st thomas so have been watching the convection/cloud bank south of PR carefully for development. It is all tropical moisture being pulled north into the trough left by Igor. We are having very unusual. SW and S winds and the convection was streaming north linerly yesterday in streamers with no sign of circulation. So for now no worrie. Bower as this moves west it may be a trigger that develops something farther west on the carib along with the disturbance just east of the windwards so we all need to monitor nhc becuase things are spinning up VERY fast this year once they get organized


I read something coming up from southwest of it could combine and create a possible TD
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
Quoting cctxshirl:

I still don't like the blob just sitting off the TX Gulf Coast! I know it's not a "real" storm, but the flooding is real--gonna check out the roads before I even attempt going to work.

I'm in st thomas so have been watching the convection/cloud bank south of PR carefully for development. It is all tropical moisture being pulled north into the trough left by Igor. We are having very unusual. SW and S winds and the convection was streaming north linerly yesterday in streamers with no sign of circulation. So for now no worrie. Bower as this moves west it may be a trigger that develops something farther west on the carib along with the disturbance just east of the windwards so we all need to monitor nhc becuase things are spinning up VERY fast this year once they get organized
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Quoting swlaaggie:
Good morning all. Interesting tidbit from Lake Charles, NWS, 5:30 am discussion:

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...BUT MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST THEREAFTER...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER IN REGARD TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER NOAM. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A MASSIVE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER...WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GEM OFFERING
GREATER SUPPORT TO THE GFS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK RELIED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS...WHICH
SHOWS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO BEING EXTREMELY FAR OUT IN TIME...UNTIL THE
FORECAST PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMES CLEARER...I AM
HESITANT TO SPECULATE ON WHERE SUCH AN ENTITY WOULD GO. SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.





Have a great day, Surfmom!

I follow Lake Charles as well. Hopefully this time next week it is saying the exact same thing.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
2312. surfmom
Ah!! Thanks Aqua -- that's as far ahead as I usually look in life generally
six to nine
good for peace of mind

OK - time to seize the day - may you all have a GREAT one
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79 here in Palm Beach County :(
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
2310. aquak9
quickly- eyewall hi and good morning

BAMS is fine on speed, I'm agreeing with that. Realized that after I posted.

I meant direction. Doubt 94L will even make it that far west.

:)
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Good morning all. Interesting tidbit from Lake Charles, NWS, 5:30 am discussion:

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...BUT MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST THEREAFTER...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER IN REGARD TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER NOAM. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A MASSIVE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER...WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GEM OFFERING
GREATER SUPPORT TO THE GFS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK RELIED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS...WHICH
SHOWS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO BEING EXTREMELY FAR OUT IN TIME...UNTIL THE
FORECAST PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMES CLEARER...I AM
HESITANT TO SPECULATE ON WHERE SUCH AN ENTITY WOULD GO. SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.



Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
2308. surfmom
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Like to have my carbs early in the day :)

LOL - be careful - those spaghetti's have cause some to choke
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2307. aquak9
surfmom- we all good for 6-9 days.

apocolyps will keep us safe, hahaha

blessings ya'll
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I guess the GOMEX is quiet - nothing cooking or festering w/remnants of Karl?

There's a tropical wave, but don't know if it's from Karl
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
Quoting aquak9:
2288- BAM suite is out to lunch, extended lunch, heck it's a food cruise. 94L is barely moving.


Maybe not totally out to lunch.... Those BAM plots show a weeks (168 hours) of movement so in the grand scheme that is not a lot of movement.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11307
Quoting CalTex:

If anybody's here, would you take a look at this? The blob just south of Puerto Rico looks interesting, but I'm hoping it's nothing...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

I still don't like the blob just sitting off the TX Gulf Coast! I know it's not a "real" storm, but the flooding is real--gonna check out the roads before I even attempt going to work.
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2303. surfmom
Wow Aslinn - you all do stay HOT, HOT, HOT!! (Louisianna)
LOL - walking horses due to heat - been there : )
I'll probably hose them down today b/4 we start

more waves - kinda surprised - I thought there was enough SAL in the air to snuff them out...but I don't always get these things correct.

I guess the GOMEX is quiet - nothing cooking or festering w/remnants of Karl?
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Quoting surfmom:
2288Geoffrey - up early with those spaghetti maps eh? : )



Like to have my carbs early in the day :)
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Quoting Cotillion:


Sun?

Oh, so that's what you call that glowing, warm orb in the sky?

We see it so little that we don't know what to call it...


That's about how I feel about rain, those little wet drops that fall from the sky? I do remember them...
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
Quoting surfmom:
You have to jump the pond to get some of that..... plenty of heat here for the next two months...and SUN


Sun?

Oh, so that's what you call that glowing, warm orb in the sky?

We see it so little that we don't know what to call it...
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2299. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:
59 to 60 right now and that's the max for the day.

Cloudy with rain showers all day. Light breeze.

No 'Indian Summer' this year.
You have to jump the pond to get some of that..... plenty of heat here for the next two months...and SUN
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Quoting surfmom:
Aislinn - morning - I forget where you are... yes, hitting 100 is getting OLD.... I have humidity reactive hair as well - lucky I work w/4-leggeds, they don't notice.... I see I go up to 92 - which means we have to work the horses asap in the AM before it gets hot.


I'm in Louisiana. I remember it being 107 at 7 pm when I lived in Kansas. We would have to walk the horses as it was too hot to ride and after a week like that they needed exercise. Friends would laugh when I said I was going to go walk the horses.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
2297. Mikla
The wave that just left the coast I would expect to get a circle today... and there is another just coming out of centeral Africa...
Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
2296. aquak9
2288- BAM suite is out to lunch, extended lunch, heck it's a food cruise. 94L is barely moving.
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2295. surfmom
2288Geoffrey - up early with those spaghetti maps eh? : )

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I must admit I loved the snow three or four times last winter. Normally here we get snow once every three or four years.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
59 to 60 right now and that's the max for the day.

Cloudy with rain showers all day. Light breeze.

No 'Indian Summer' this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2292. surfmom
Aislinn - morning - I forget where you are... yes, hitting 100 is getting OLD.... I have humidity reactive hair as well - lucky I work w/4-leggeds, they don't notice.... I see I go up to 92 - which means we have to work the horses asap in the AM before it gets hot.
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Wow. I just woke up to 59 degrees here in Central Florida. Yay Fall!
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2290. surfmom
Quoting aquak9:
incredible to wake up to a cooler 71 degree's...

I found it shocking as well- instantly brought back a fear of last winter-
yes!! no flip flops for weeks & running the garden seedling trays in and out of the house arrvy
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Quoting surfmom:
Morning Folks of Daybreak - scanning quick b/4 barn work - incredible to wake up to a cooler 71 degree's...


Morning Surfmon,
71 here as well, though supposed to hit 100 today, not counting heat index. I'll put my hair up for parent pick up this afternoon or I'll look like I just stepped out of the shower.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
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2287. aquak9
incredible to wake up to a cooler 71 degree's...

I found it shocking as well- instantly brought back a fear of last winter-
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2286. surfmom
Morning Folks of Daybreak - scanning quick b/4 barn work - incredible to wake up to a cooler 71 degree's...
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2285. aquak9
g'morning trauma, ais'l, everyone.

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HurricaneIgor's heading had turned eastward to (9degrees north of) NorthEast
from its previous heading of (4degrees north of) NorthNorthEast
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~22.7mph(~36.5km/h)

19Sep 09amGMT - - 28.9n65.3w - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45
19Sep 12pmGMT - - 29.6n65.3w - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45A
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.4n65.4w - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #46
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.8n65.7w - - 85mph - - 952mb - - NHC.Adv.#46A
19Sep 09pmGMT - - 31.5n65.9w - - 80mph - - 951mb - - #47
20Sep 12amGMT - - 31.9n65.7w - - 75mph - - 953mb - - #47A
20Sep 03amGMT - - 32.4n65.5w - - 75mph - - 955mb - - #48
20Sep 06amGMT - - 33.4n65.1w - - 75mph - - 955mb - - #48A
20Sep 09amGMT - - 34.2n64.4w - - 75mph - - 957mb - - #49

Copy&paste 28.9n65.3w, 29.6n65.3w, 30.4n65.4w, 30.8n65.7w, 31.5n65.9w-31.9n65.7w, 31.9n65.7w-32.4n65.5w, 32.4n65.5w-33.4n65.1w, 33.4n65.1w-34.2n64.4w, yqb, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
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2283. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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Quoting Cotillion:


No worries. :)

Igor has now surpassed 40 in ACE, the first time in 6 years - 2004 had two storms to achieve it. Surpassing Ivan would be a tall order even for the most intense of Cape Verde hurricanes, being the second most plentiful ACE storm on record and was the most for over a hundred years. However, it looks like if the extratropical transition estimate is correct, Igor'll not surpass Frances. He'll probably top out around the 42-43 mark.


all I got is WOW!!
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Quoting aquak9:


now that's a funny way to start my week!


just about to say the same thing myself .....good morning maam!
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I noticed it, but have no idea.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
Anyone on that can tell me the difference between a sinking high ridge and a high ridge?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
morning all... what does everyone think of that little system coming off S. America there? Is that gonna be anything?
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We're under a sinking high ridge here and they're predicting very high temps again. While I love that the ridge has kept everything way south of us, I'm tired of close to 100 degrees every day for months. I am ready for some Fall weather!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
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Hey CalTex,

There's usually people in, hmmm. They should be showing up soon.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
2274. aquak9
Quoting apocalyps:
Keep safe people in florida


now that's a funny way to start my week!
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I say TD at 11, Igor looks funny is he trying to rebuild an eye?
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94L

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2271. CalTex
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone.


I'm not sure anyone else is here, they all went to bed before I got here.
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Good morning, everyone.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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