A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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i have noted in the 12z 09 at the end of the run has a strong hurricane hiting FL and then makeing a 2nd land fall in SC and NC all it i would start looking at 300hrs 0ut for that and this keep going down


Link
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
"In a Monthly Weather Review paper published in 1934, the U.S. Weather Bureau recognized Key West and Pensacola as the most hurricane-prone cities in the state; Key West experiences both storms developing from the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, while Pensacola has received hurricanes crossing the state as well as storms recurving in the northern Gulf of Mexico.[3] The earliest storm to affect the state was the 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm, and the latest storm to impact the state was a hurricane making landfall on December 1, 1925.

The strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall on the state was the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which crossed the Florida Keys with a pressure of 892 mbar (hPa; 26.35 inHg); it is also the strongest hurricane on record to strike the United States. Out of the ten most intense landfalling United States hurricanes, four struck Florida at peak strength.[4]"

Hey PcolaDan...
I'll toss out there that a great many of our historical hurricanes from before the advent of the combination of satellites, HHs, SFMR, and QuikScat made landfall anywhere CONUS at peak strength.

Since then, very few. (Andrew, Humberto, ???)

It's not that anything TC changed. The observation methods changed.
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615. Relix
ECMFW already calls for the setup that was forecast some time ago. All west. Thankfully there's a weakness in the east side that will keep CV storms curving away for now. If something managed to make it to the other side it would probably hit the Antilles and then US. Thankfully that's not the case it seems.
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Live from St. Georges
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Quoting IKE:
144 hours on the latest ECMWF....there goes 94L... it is now near 20N....



Well... I bit of a debate there. You can see the TROF approaching the C CONUS on the Left... this should push the A/B High further to the E. You can also see "Julia" being picked up and a high now building on the E ATL (Africa Coast). There's a possibility that might just loop around and remain in the same general area until a better steering sets up.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Is Florida at Risk?
No...at least not from 94L at this moment in time.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I feel like this comments section serves those looking for answers rather well. The good-natured ribbing that takes place is actually critical to sustaining the "community feel" we enjoy here.

Without it, we are left with an Automated Time and Temperature Line. No flare, very sterile.
DJ, have you been speaking with the Old One? For I have heard that he is wise in the ways of such things.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
610. 7544
wow just read a couple of pages back so far all the talk is cat 4 for so fla

what time frame are we talking about ?

is it the blob in carb now if not when can we look for it to start forming tia ?

aand wow thats a bermuda high looks to be sticking around for a while . !
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Quoting IKE:
144 hours on the latest ECMWF....there goes 94L... it is now near 20N....

Yeah, it's heading out to sea in this run. Notice the weakness to the NNW of the cyclone.

Julia just doesn't want to go away.
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607. IKE
144 hours on the latest ECMWF....there goes 94L... it is now near 20N....

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Quoting ElConando:


It depends now if it will be Julia or a Extra-tropical version of her.
Good question. She appears to be small and attached to a trof, and telling from the thermodynamical and environmental conditions in the area, I would say that she is subtropical.
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605. xcool
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 13N48W
4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 48W-54W


-PGI46L-^^^^
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just looked at the loop and you're right. Looks like she may try and hang around for a while.


It depends now if it will be Julia or a Extra-tropical version of her.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just looked at the loop and you're right. Looks like she may try and hang around for a while.


Indeed...
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Quoting WxLogic:


Julia...
Just looked at the loop and you're right. Looks like she may try and hang around for a while.
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Thanks Dr.J.. Keeping our fingers crossed down here on the SE TX Gulf Coast that we have been spared again this year. DXE
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http://portanow.com/webcam2/beachcam.htm
Port Aransas surfcam--high tides and lots of rain; but thankful no really hardcore storms here. Prayers out to Bermuda.
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Quoting floridiancanuck:
Wait, I thought the Bermuda High was often protective for Florida?? Maybe I'm confusing it with somehting else...
Nah, the Bermuda high or subtropical ridge is what usually puts Florida at a risk if it is positioned right.
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Seems to me that the only people causing the disruptions on here are the ones who complain about the 'falling' standards of the blog.

Anyways, back to weather. ECMWF 12z 24 hours, TD14/TS Lisa.
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Quoting floridiancanuck:
Wait, I thought the Bermuda High was often protective for Florida?? Maybe I'm confusing it with somehting else...


It depends on the position of the High.
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593. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hmmmm, I wonder what the low pressure area near 35N 35W is?



Looks like a cold-core(starting out), low, that drops south.
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Quoting FLdewey:

Tell your friends! :-)
ROFL
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting sammywammybamy:
"In a Monthly Weather Review paper published in 1934, the U.S. Weather Bureau recognized Key West and Pensacola as the most hurricane-prone cities in the state; Key West experiences both storms developing from the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, while Pensacola has received hurricanes crossing the state as well as storms recurving in the northern Gulf of Mexico.[3] The earliest storm to affect the state was the 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm, and the latest storm to impact the state was a hurricane making landfall on December 1, 1925.

The strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall on the state was the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which crossed the Florida Keys with a pressure of 892 mbar (hPa; 26.35 inHg); it is also the strongest hurricane on record to strike the United States. Out of the ten most intense landfalling United States hurricanes, four struck Florida at peak strength.[4]"

Hey PcolaDan...


I now officially hate you. ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hmmmm, I wonder what the low pressure area near 35N 35W is?



Julia...
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Wait, I thought the Bermuda High was often protective for Florida?? Maybe I'm confusing it with somehting else...
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Hmmmm, I wonder what the low pressure area near 35N 35W is?

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lentampa, I am dumbfounded. I see plenty of good information here. MH09, as well as many others are "on the job". As for "primary mission", well..... ah never mind.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
583. IKE
5 day ECMWF...Link
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


If it Does Follow the GFS track then youd be looking at a CAT 4 over South Florida.

It Wont be Weak.. look at all the Heat in the Carribean.


Too much heat in there. I will be back later, Dolphins are back on!
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Off to the beach to check out Igor's waves. Y'all have a great afternoon.

Thanks '03, glad to see you around and as with Levi, well done with the video updates. I am sure the long timers see the underlying irony. I thought about breaking out some De La during the ordeal. :) Sadly, that video is no longer on youtube. Granted I didn't always use it appropriately; was still a great video.

As a caveat before I head out. Many thanks to admin for giving us, as a community, the chance to work through this. There are differing opinions and sides, I greatly appreciate y'all allowing each to speak their peace without comments being removed. Hopefully this will lead to moving on in the next few days.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting PcolaDan:

Here is another. Wonder how the boats will do through this.






Bermuda's harbours are some of the most naturally well protected in the hemisphere. [Nassau's is pretty good as well.] IMO biggest problem those boats might have is if they drag / break free of the anchor.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting IKE:
96 hour ECMWF...

The flow is pretty zonal with no weaknesses. Looks like 94L may go further west in this run.
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Let me also add my dittos, props and pluses to SJ's post #418.
.
.
Nobody was "run off". He was banned, and understandably so. His parting shot about what the man who owns this site can do with the site I can't even come close to repeating.
.
.
I'm optimistic. The blog has survived and thrived as change occurs. Perhaps in the future the ex-member can return with a more respectful manner. We all should be humbled by the power of tropical cyclones and we all should do our best to be humble to our fellow bloggers.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:




1928 Okeechobe Huricane?

"The hurricane moved across the Bahamas as a strong Category 4 hurricane. It continued to the west-northwest, and made landfall in southern Florida on the evening of September 16 (or early on September 17 Universal Time).[3] Initially, Richard Gray of the U.S. Weather Bureau was optimistic that the storm would spare the south Florida region.[5] Atmospheric pressure at landfall was measured at 929 mbar (hPa),[6] and maximum sustained winds were near 150 mph (240 km/h).[3] The eye passed ashore in Palm Beach County near West Palm Beach, then moved directly over Lake Okeechobee.[3] Peak gusts were estimated near 160 mph (260 km/h) at Canal Point, Florida.[2] The hurricane's path turned northeast as it crossed Florida, taking it across northern Florida, eastern Georgia, and the Carolinas on September 19. It then moved inland and merged with a low-pressure system around Toronto on the 20th.[3] "




Yep, that'd be the one. A huge tragedy for our state! Oddly enough we never learned this in school, I first heard of it while reading Weird Florida (really interesting book if you haven't checked it out). Apparently during a dry spell loads of skeletal human remains were discovered in the lake bed and one theory is it is from that storm...
http://www.nowpublic.com/whats_at_the_bottom_of_lake_okeechobee
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I kknow there is no vorocity with this, but that is alot of moisture in the carribian.
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Civil Air Terminal, Bermuda
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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