A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.

Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.

Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DestinJeff:

Yeah, this case we don't need to see any of that westward trending in path that has been evident in other systems thus far.

At least we starting to see some validity to GFS by having ECMWF joining into developing some sort of large disturb region in the W Carib. by late next week. It will just be a matter of waiting and seeing further consistent runs from ECMWF. Although GFS has been doing fine by itself as it was able to get Karl developed prior to ECMWF.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Is there like a [??] button for posts that just totally come out of left field and whack one in the ear??

I was reading along, minding my own business, when [WHACK!] outta nowhere comes this post that is just.... freaked out, man....

Just to present a contrasting point of view, this last page had it's usual mishmash of information about current events, places where stuff can be learned, the occasional [j/k] post... pretty much par for the course on a Sunday afternoon. What this tells me is that SOME people only read certain SELECTED bloggers' posts when they read the comments section of the blog. Maybe if they'd been reading some other bloggers, they might have realized the quality of the variety on this blog. And FOR GOODNESS SAKE! it's not like you can't get some of this other information that used to be on the blog ELSEwhere....

But this is just weird.

Point up!
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The non-sense last week got to him and he has now started his own site.
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Quoting IKE:
240 hours...

Wow, the system is so large that the ECMWF appears to break it up into 3. Considering that its genesis comes from the monsoonal trough, if this cyclone does come to fruition, it will likely be very, very large.

Lol, Julia is still hanging around.
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Hay, I hit the Rich Text yesterday just to see wnay it would do. Now I no longer nac see how to add links or anything else. How do I undo this?
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looks like a big time rain event coming to the gulf coast
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Thanks for posting SherwoodSpirit - good view of the cove with the sailboat anchored out there. Will keep it up & check in periodically.
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656. IKE
240 hours...

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HurricaneIgor's heading had turned westward to (10.4degrees west of) NorthNorthWest
from its previous heading of 6.2degrees west of dueNorth
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~11mph(~17.7km/h)

18Sep 06pmGMT - - 26.6n64.1w - - 105mph - - 945mb - - #42A
18Sep 09pmGMT - - 27.1n64.3w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #43
19Sep 12amGMT - - 27.7n64.5w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #43A
19Sep 03amGMT - - 28.2n64.7w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - NHC.Adv.#44
19Sep 06amGMT - - 28.3n65.1w - - - 90mph - - 949mb - - #44A
19Sep 09amGMT - - 28.9n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45
19Sep 12pmGMT - - 29.6n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45A
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.4n65.4w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #46
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.8n65.7w - - - 85mph - - 952mb - - #46A

Copy&paste 26.6n64.1w, 27.1n64.3w, 27.7n64.5w, 28.2n64.7w, 28.3n65.1w-28.9n65.3w, 28.9n65.3w-29.6n65.3w, 29.6n65.3w-30.4n65.4w, 30.4n65.4w-30.8n65.7w, meo, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
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I will definitely handed to GFS if what is forecasting actually comes to fruition.
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652. IKE
12Z ECMWF...Link
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12 ECMWF... if this is true we could be looking at a rather large system as GFS has been depicting.



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we could see the M and N storm be for the end of SEP
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Nobody won. You can read back on the last page or 2 of the last blog to see what happened.
And while I was walking my dog I noticed a cloud.......moving WEST!!!

I would have won the delicious chocolate cake if I hadn't been DQ'd. : ( I figured it out finally. I should have emailed it to someone for a split of the cake! *G*

In a map posted earlier, it looked like if something entered the GOMEX it would be guided more towards mid-TX. Was I reading that right?
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641. 7544
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just looked at the loop and you're right. Looks like she may try and hang around for a while.

yeap looks like she might do the loop de loop like some early models show could she ?
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Quoting 7544:
has the fla strom even formed yet is i from 94l or a future 95l tia

nop it not from 94L
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the nhc is going too need a new key borad when the season
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637. 7544
has the fla strom even formed yet is i from 94l or a future 95l tia
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Conditions at 41048 as of
(1:50 pm EDT)
1750 GMT on 09/19/2010:

Supplemental Measurements Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (EDT) Pressure
1:46 pm 29.55 in
Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
1:24 pm 40.8 kts N ( 1 deg true )

Peak gust during the measurement hour
1:23 pm N ( 360 deg ) 46.6 kts

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Re: the Elephant in the Parlor; AKA those who must not be named

One if the things that certain people on the blog cannot seem to grasp is that to actively ignore, treat someone as beneath acknowledgment is an assertive act. The notion that if one does not reply you have "wussed out" is plain wrong.

A second is that others do not necessarily think and respond as you do. What you find aversive and would avoid may be pleasurable to someone else. Trolls are not like you. (At least I hope)

"Never argue with a fool. People will not be able to tell you apart."
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633. IKE
Memo to Bret Favre: You should have stayed retired.
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The webcam owned by Lamar Wood (if I caught his name correctly) from Scaur Hill (southwest Bermuda) is doing a really good job of staying online and recording the wind and waves if you're interested. It's pointed northwest so the winds are from behind the cam at the moment, but they'll turn as Igor passes.


Thanks to those who posted this link before me. :)
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Actually, I was thinking of NC. But I'm sure wisdom applies to Ike as well.
When you said "old one" I thought it was me. Speaking of old men, doesn't Favre know what color his teammates wear?
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Quoting floridiancanuck:
Miami - So does the Bermuda High protect Florida when it envelopes the state like it appeared to in that graphic?? Thanks.
Yes, in that case, the cyclone would go south of Florida, likely into the Caribbean.
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Miami - So does the Bermuda High protect Florida when it envelopes the state like it appeared to in that graphic?? Thanks.
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Quoting DestinJeff:

Who? Ike?
Actually, I was thinking of NC. But I'm sure wisdom applies to Ike as well.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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