A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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yea its a hyperactive yr thats why a system like the one s. of prico needs to be watched whats great about american sports is the national anthem it gets everyone pyched.
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715. xcool
cowboy lolol
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Quoting DixieRadio:
Thanks Dr.J.. Keeping our fingers crossed down here on the SE TX Gulf Coast that we have been spared again this year. DXE

Dixie, where are you located? There is a tornado that touched down here in Rockport.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
invest 94L GOING TO BE A FISH STORM

Oh thats what those four X's are for (xxxx) FISH
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Are we there yet?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5516
Pressure a tad bit lower...down to 949mb. Keep in mind that this is the extrapolated pressure and has a tendency to be a little lower than it actually is. Nonetheless, a dropsonde was likely dropped into the eye, this will give us more valid information.

191730 3105N 06600W 6967 02714 9494 +165 +075 300010 013 033 003 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Moved on.


moved on were?
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there is a good ch we will see the W storm this year all so 2 more cat 5 if Igor gets upgrade tooo cat 5 at post seasone
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Moved on.


moved on were?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i re call many of you calling this year a bust in june and july lol


you got that right bud but june wasnt really a bust remember Alex? strongest June hurricane on record ...July was pretty quiet though
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Quoting Tazmanian:
so how many of you still think this year is a bust
Ha ha.

Quoting weatherlover94:
dr m says 94 L out to sea but in the wunder map only 3 models steer it nw the ne the rest take it w-wnw across the atlantic
At the time he said it only NOGAPs was showing westbound. I'm hoping it follows Julia...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21154
Quoting weatherlover94:


you got that right bud but June wasnt really a bust remember Alex? strongest June hurricane on record July was pretty quiet



ture ture
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701. JLPR2
94L is going to be tricky, it all depends on how Igor and Julia move, like Earl had to deal with Danielle.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i re call many of you calling this year a bust in june and july lol


you got that right bud but June wasnt really a bust remember Alex? strongest June hurricane on record July was pretty quiet
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Quoting IKE:
144 hours on the latest ECMWF....there goes 94L... it is now near 20N....



it takes lisa in the break in the high but does it do that or get shoved back w by the high over the east coast? it could pull a fiona then again it could pull a frances and go into florida there are just to many ? marks to make any sort of guess about what it will do...my guess is it will go farther w than fiona or igor
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Quoting islander101010:
thanks taz i meant 95




any time
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Quoting weatherlover94:


a bust in what way? as in very inacative or very active?



i re call many of you calling this year a bust in june and july lol
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What is this Rich Text thing anyhoo? Somebody else had a problem with it on... Friday night? They got help, but I'm not sure what it was.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21154
thanks taz i meant 95 the other system just east of the windwards i was watching too but it looks hurting this afternoo
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694. JLPR2
Quoting weatherlover94:
dr m says 94 L out to sea but in the wunder map only 3 models steer it nw the ne the rest take it w-wnw across the atlantic


New models he probably didn't have when he wrote his entry.
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In this depiction I've marked the TROF lifting North (courtesy of Igor) and a wave moving W with associated vorticity which should have enough energy to get something started mid into late next week:



Loop
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Quoting Tazmanian:
so how many of you still think this year is a bust


a bust in what way? as in very inacative or very active?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


nothing to be gleaned with regards to specific landfall location at this time.


Thanks, DJ. Back to reading and learning.
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dr m says 94 L out to sea but in the wunder map only 3 models steer it nw the ne the rest take it w-wnw across the atlantic
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so how many of you still think this year is a bust
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Quoting islander101010:
i think 94 will come from that area s.of prico. there are already heavy showers in the area and once the big systems move north it should end up in a favorable area.




we have 94L right now if you have not been following the blog that would be 95L
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we could see the M and N storm be for the end of SEP
I'm with u on the M... not so sure about N before month's end.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21154
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
LOL, noticed that cloud too. I'd have shared.


We'll work together next time, two minds better than one?

The models are showing a bit more north from Mexico now for the GOMEX? Or will the ridge send it to Florida as some models suggested? I am getting a little confused trying to understand the maps posted.
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684. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


Big mess in the Gulf and a system way low in latitude in the CATL, looks like this season still has a few surprises under its sleeve.
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i think 94 will come from that area s.of prico. there are already heavy showers in the area and once the big systems move north it should end up in a favorable area.
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Looks like the GFS [very, very longterm] brings something up from the CAR, across Cuba, and along the EC of FL, ending with the Savannah area of GA coastline... 10 - 14 days down the line closest [i.e. in OCT].

So far it's pretty much covered every reachable location landfall-wise, am I correct?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21154
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I would have won the delicious chocolate cake if I hadn't been DQ'd. : ( I figured it out finally. I should have emailed it to someone for a split of the cake! *G*

In a map posted earlier, it looked like if something entered the GOMEX it would be guided more towards mid-TX. Was I reading that right?
LOL, noticed that cloud too. I'd have shared.
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680. xcool
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Quoting IKE:
240 hours...



I am trying to learn. Looking at this map and a previous one posted, is it looking like if a storm came into the GOMEX, it would hit higher up on the TX coast than the previous models pointed to?
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678. JLPR2
I see 94L is getting ready to get going, very nice spin with it, all it lacks is deeper convection.
But it is D-min so lets see how it does tonight.
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676. xcool
ECMWF shows low in gom
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.
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673. JLPR2
Quoting MelbourneTom:

Gee, even the quote doesn't work ony more. Really, how do I undo the Rich Text thing?


Click plain text.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, the system is so large that the ECMWF appears to break it up into 3. Considering that its genesis comes from the monsoonal trough, if this cyclone does come to fruition, it will likely be very, very large.


Another "Perfect Storm" in the works?

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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