A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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769. WXTXN
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


How's the river flooding, especially after Hermine?
I did't make it north I went out to the island but from what i've seen on the radar there's a lot of runoff that will be causing some problems on the Nueces river and oso creek. The Laguna Madre was higher than the tide at the beach by at least a foot, this has to be from the huge amount of rain from yesterday and last night.
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Quoting mbjjm:
Commisoners point at 292ft reporting gust to 79.7kt/91.7mph
Is that SW or NE end of the island? TIA...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20726
Quoting cctxshirl:

Thanks for posting that and with that being said--there is severe flooding in South TX. I wondered if Karl would cause the same issues Beulah did back in 1967. It looks like we could be suffering the same weather issues was did way back then. The heavy rain hasn't let up for about 24 hours now and there's major flooding in Corpus Christi, Rockport, Port Aransas, Aransas Pass and Refugio areas.
And this with the actual Karl circulation long dissapated, too. Hope u don't get any loss of life associated....



Area south of PR


Area east of the Lesser Antilles


NW Gulf of Mexico [broad area of low pressure left behind by Karl]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20726
764. 7544
test
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I haven't seen this much rain in awhile and winds were blowing pretty hard. If you check out the portanow surfcam, it appears the tides are up to the dunes, but it could just be flooded out there.
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Quoting mbjjm:
Commisoners point at 292ft reporting gust to 79.7kt/91.7mph


I was just going to ask if anyone had an update on how Bermuda was doing. The most damage I have had from storms came from prolonged exposure to tropical storm force winds. The longer it blows water from the same direction, the more the water penetrates any voids in a building's structure. Once one drop finds a way through, the rest of the drops follow kind of like ants lol. I'm so sorry for them and glad it's not me again!
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758. WXTXN
Just got back from a recon mission out to see the the wrath of the Clone of Karl. We have really felt this system here in Corpus just as strongly as the other storms that have gone in south of us this year.
From yesterday through today we have had gusts into the 40s at bob hall pier. With surf pounding over the ends of the Packery Jettys no beach left, the surf almost to the dunes.
The tide has come up two feet in the upper Laguna Madre this has inundated all of the low lying areas with some stranded cars here and there.
It has not stopped raining since noon yesterday and it looks like lots more on the way. I could paddle a canoe down my street. For a "non event" this is intense, I can't imagine what a major would do...!!
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Quoting brazocane:


Doesnt look to be letting up anytime soon
Link

I know, I feel like it's just sitting over us.
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* NHC best track data (Updated Sunday, September 19, 2010 18:00 Z)
* NHC model data (Updated Sunday, September 19, 2010 18:00 Z)


Location at the time:
500 statue miles (805 km) to the W (273°) from Praia, Cape Verde.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1008 mb (29.77 inHg | 1008 hPa)

Coordinates:
15.3N 31W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC)
Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)
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94L may be a TD by 5 pm looks like a good spin going on
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Quoting cctxshirl:

Thanks for posting that and with that being said--there is severe flooding in South TX. I wondered if Karl would cause the same issues Beulah did back in 1967. It looks like we could be suffering the same weather issues was did way back then. The heavy rain hasn't let up for about 24 hours now and there's major flooding in Corpus Christi, Rockport, Port Aransas, Aransas Pass and Refugio areas.


Doesnt look to be letting up anytime soon
Link
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751. mbjjm
Commisoners point at 292ft reporting gust to 79.7kt/91.7mph
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Quoting cctxshirl:

Thanks for posting that and with that being said--there is severe flooding in South TX. I wondered if Karl would cause the same issues Beulah did back in 1967. It looks like we could be suffering the same weather issues was did way back then. The heavy rain hasn't let up for about 24 hours now and there's major flooding in Corpus Christi, Rockport, Port Aransas, Aransas Pass and Refugio areas.



welcome
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726. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 3:33 PM EDT on September 19, 2010

This is ridiculous. And pitiful. I suppose some pple are reading even the "survival of the blog" as some negative comment.... sad.

Once again the culture of personality over information is negatively impacting the blog.

"Can't we all just get along?"
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20726
LeMoyne Edited Repost of 12 Hours ago :
94 L IS A go ...


Eastern Atlantic 94 L **1145 utc**

Watched it all night and noticed a few things about 94 L :

1) 94 L IS A broad 3-5 degree (>100mi) diameter ccw circulation (has had eye for >12 hours)

2) 94 L IS A pumping 18 hours of outflow to N and E in 6 waves that has encroached on the SAL (upper divergence) and stretch back towards N Africa

3) 94 L IS A bridging to SE (ed) NOW drawing in moisture from African monsoon wave that 94 L *broke* earlier today(more moisture in bound now)

4) 94 L IS A ccw rotation embedded in broad area of ccw rotation between SAL going WSW and area either side of 10N tween 30-40W going ENE (lower convergence) (Ed) Out flow almost covering lower spiral structure. Current view from Floater shows Eye at 15.2 31.6 (ed) one degree due west of CIMMS marker

5) Post on last blog gave T 1.5 over 18 hours to 600z - over 12 hours ago now (ed).

Dry air is a threat BUT:
- (ed) Hours later: 94 L IS A bending and intruding on the drier layer. Development continues with arm extending from below center 32-12 to 42 13 into the "drier" layer with another closer in as well. 94L is bracketing the "drier" air it consumes.

- CIMSS (and other views) show Julia's wake is now due west of 94L. I J outflow can also be seen still entering CIMSS view and dropping wet on the maybe-not so-dry layer - that outflow back along Julia's path and east has been present for days.
- Trend of center is West or WSW (visible: eye was 15.3N still at most 15.3 ) and going west to WSW along edge of SAL/dry air and feedin on everything to the south.


94L doesn't start off like a fish in fact this (ed) BIG puppy might just grow into a dog that will hunt where it wishes.
- The current westerly motion is also a direct path to 29 and 30C SSTs ..(ed).

Tropical depression NOW (ed).
This year if a storm can spin, outflow and make spirals it's likely to crank right up to major if it's below 15 N - just like all the other surprises in the last month.
Oh, and the 2d storm in likely next CV pair coming off the coast soon. Check the CIMSS views - #2 is(ed was?) bigger than 94 L and started the flow back east along 10N that 94 L IS A starting to feed on now.

If 94 L gets a hold of the big tongue of moisture sticking off the African coast it will explode. 94 L IS Already consuming the moisture from Africa north and west of that tongue.
94 L IS A go fer sure ...

Eastern Atlantic TS LISA **1800 UTC** ?half hour ago?

This storm has drawn a direct line to that large tongue of moisture coming off the W Africa coast. It has also begun to insert a spiral arm the opposite way into the "drier" layer that started 94L and is now shaped like 94L. It has several developing lines following the "drier" boundary arcs. If (or is it When?) 94 L draws in that giant monsoon cloud sticking out of West Africa (and that giant arm is beginning to turn towards 94L) -- at the time that 94 L owns that moisture - 94L will become a major ...
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
Quoting Tazmanian:
back too the weather if you all want too talk too talk about this more go to your own blogs or you risk geting a 24hr banned

Thanks for posting that and with that being said--there is severe flooding in South TX. I wondered if Karl would cause the same issues Beulah did back in 1967. It looks like we could be suffering the same weather issues was did way back then. The heavy rain hasn't let up for about 24 hours now and there's major flooding in Corpus Christi, Rockport, Port Aransas, Aransas Pass and Refugio areas.
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Wow...I feel special :) My post made it all the way over to the phfc...lol

On Droid so not sticking around, but did have to stick my head in when I saw the antics. The truth always comes out in the end.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting BahaHurican:
Is there like a [??] button for posts that just totally come out of left field and whack one in the ear??

I was reading along, minding my own business, when [WHACK!] outta nowhere comes this post that is just.... freaked out, man....

Just to present a contrasting point of view, this last page had its usual mishmash of information about current events, places where stuff can be learned, the occasional [j/k] post... pretty much par for the course on a Sunday afternoon. What this tells me is that SOME people only read certain SELECTED bloggers' posts when they read the comments section of the blog. Maybe if they'd been reading some other bloggers, they might have realized the quality of the variety on this blog. And FOR GOODNESS SAKE! it's not like you can't get some of this other information that used to be on the blog ELSEwhere....

But this is just weird.

Sorry abt the whacked out post... I've been looking at all the varying BDA webcams this p.m. while it is still light... unfortunately landfall, if it occurs, will likely be overnight.


I am afraid I have to agree with the original posters... I too am a "lurker"... rarely posting, but reading everything. This year the posts have gone from bad to worse. People that really do not know didgly squat about hurricanes or weather have totally taken over this board. There really is not much reason to come here unless you want to read a bunch of kids posting things they know nothing about....Sorry, just my opinion....
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94L has a good ch of be comeing the next TD vary soon
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It is a bust Taz!Not one pin-hole eye yet!
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Favre is bad.
.
.
I just saw a cloud.....moving WEST!!!!
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yea its a hyperactive yr thats why a system like the one s. of prico needs to be watched whats great about american sports is the national anthem it gets everyone pyched.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.