A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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820. 7544
please no need to bash any site wu is a a great site the people make it what it is theres enough for everyone to go around and enjoy all around

back to 94l looks like it may be called a ts and skip td status
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would quickly like to add my meaningless two cents...I'm a lurker since the great season of '04. I live in a high danger flood zone on Tampa Bay. I take this very serious. I use this blog as a tool for in depth information outside of the 2 mins Dennis Phillips gets to speak on ABC. I think this blog is very important and could and does save lives. Thus, I am very sad to see many of the best on this blog leaving...and for such childish reasons...and say THANK YOU to the ones who are staying...I know this is more than a blog to some of you...it's friendship and community...and that's cool...but don't forgot all of us who need and respect the information that is put forth here. Do not degrade a vaulable thing because of middle school antics. Thanks.
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Somehow this image doesn't imply much difference between E and W side of the "eye"....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21537
814. xcool
Pouch PGI47L from Africa
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812. 7544
hmmmmmm

agree with gfs too

Link
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810. MahFL
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Looks like the center of Igor is going to just miss Bermuda to the East. But that does put Bermuda on the right side of the storm. But the strongest of the core winds (inner eye wall) should miss Bermuda. Lets hope so.


You mean miss bermuda by the West lol, remember Bermuda does not move, the hurricane does....
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Quoting weatherlover94:


were did you find this info?

In satellite photo over last 18+ hrs - watched 94L form and develop -- reality more real than models

Real BIG storm forming in CV - lol exploding Right Now!!!

94 L IS a goer... Look at it

REASONS for explosion ....

0) BROAD 10x10 degree area of CCW flow

1) UPPER DIVERGENCE: outflow for ~24 hours - massive today

2) LOWER CONVERGENCE: setting up all kinds of very fast moving spirals

3) Previously distinct eye is now covered by outflow

4) it will soon have an arm that reaches to Africa

5) it is starting to pull in the massive moisture outflow from Africa south

Eye is on the move in response to dry air
- may cycle back S and East!

Igor's favorite trick under stress: GROW!
94 L IS A TS minimum ... next major in my book ...


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Here's the address to the Bermuda radar loop.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp
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Quoting FlyingScotsman:


There is no inner eye wall! Or outer eye wall. It's just one big 300-mile wide mass of 60 mph-plus winds. The worst of them, from recon, actually look to be on the NW side, but Bermuda will still get a fair dose of hurricane-force winds, most likely.


If its just 60mph winds, that shouldn't be a big deal for Bermuda.

There's definately a center of circulation (as seen on radar loop and visible satellite).
This center will go East of Bermuda.

60mph winds gusting to 75mph (that Bermuda can handle). Just a few days ago they were bracing for a Cat 3 hurricane.
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804. MahFL
http://thextremeweather.com/xtreme-weather-cam.html
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803. 7544
yeah jeff waiting for the gfs fl ghost strom to appear looks like around the 23 rd or come from the carb mess thats there now ?
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Quoting weatherlover94:
94L may be a TD by 5 pm looks like a good spin going on


Doubt it, no renumber was issued.
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Quoting Krycek1984:


I wonder how far W the eye/center will pass from Bermuda.


Based on satellite and radar its going to be close, but definately to the East of Bermuda. Even the NHC forecasted path for Igor is now East of Bermuda.
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94L looks decent:

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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Looks like the center of Igor is going to just miss Bermuda to the East. But that does put Bermuda on the right side of the storm. But the strongest of the core winds (inner eye wall) should miss Bermuda. Lets hope so.


There is no inner eye wall! Or outer eye wall. It's just one big 300-mile wide mass of 60 mph-plus winds. The worst of them, from recon, actually look to be on the NW side, but Bermuda will still get a fair dose of hurricane-force winds, most likely.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
The center of Igor can be seen to the S.W. of Bermuda in this radar loop.



I wonder how far W the eye/center will pass from Bermuda.
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Quoting LeMoyne:
I say 94 L IS A TS now -- look at the lower layer stuff shooting in around 30-12 - I figure its going 60 mph over 100 miles out from the eye.

94 L IS A goin' SW - will mix in "drier" air.
See Rainbow - in last few frames 94 L clearly busts a move SW that cuts off a dry air intrusion.
-- center at ~32W 14.9N --
I put it *Under* 15 N *moving WSW* following the line of the drier layer.


were did you find this info?
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The center of Igor can be seen to the S.W. of Bermuda in this radar loop.

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Looks like the center of Igor is going to just miss Bermuda to the East. But that does put Bermuda on the right side of the storm. But the strongest of the core winds (inner eye wall) should miss Bermuda. Lets hope so.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Anyone need a Southern Calif weather report, you can find me...

In my studio, studio!
Up, up in my studio, studio!


LMAO! That was one of the funniest acts on the show
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783. WXTXN
Quoting will40:
Link

you can see the water being blown out of this cove
Wow great cam!! watch the seas off in the distance.
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Quoting SirTophamHatt:
That little somethin-somethin in the Western Carib bears watching considering it is right over a supply of jet feul.

Just sayin'


That wouldn't be nice....
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Check your mail.


Thanks.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Link

you can see the water being blown out of this cove
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Still a lot of "stuff" rolling off of Africa. Hey Amy (nice)

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Dry air and se sheer appears to be decoupling igor and he looks to be starting he's transition to extra-tropical,end result for bermuda w/be the same looks like the eye w/be about 20 miles west of bermuda imo
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That little somethin-somethin in the Western Carib bears watching considering it is right over a supply of jet feul.

Just sayin'
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I say 94 L IS A TS now -- look at the lower layer stuff shooting in around 30-12 - I figure its going 60 mph over 100 miles out from the eye.

94 L IS A goin' SW - will mix in "drier" air.
See Rainbow - in last few frames 94 L clearly busts a move SW that cuts off a dry air intrusion.
-- center at ~32W 14.9N --
I put it *Under* 15 N *moving WSW* following the line of the drier layer.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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