A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Alright, now looking for the [plain text]button somebody mentioned earlier... where is it again???

LOL KNEW I should have not pressed that button...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I am wondering whether Igor will break Earl's record as the deepest tropical storm ever.
The water is warm......and it's deep too!
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A 30C+ zone of SSTs extend from the southern MDR, halfway between Cape Verde and the Antilles, all the way through the Caribbean and into the Western and Eastern GOM. This is a rare occurrence, as the absence of any Caribbean hurricanes so far this year has allowed the record MDR temperatures to enter the Caribbean, while the cooling of the South Atlantic has forced the warmer anomalies into the northern hemisphere. The Caribbean-Gulf/East Coast hurricane predicted by the GFS model for almost a week now will likely be named Nicole, and the storm will enjoy a path of warm water shaped by steering currents since July, anomalies map below.



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Agreed. Sounds like about 60MPH sustained at best. [or worst, some say]

If the eye stays well enough west of them, he may not get that wind blowing directly down between the houses there....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
865. srada
Wow..I come back for the 18z run on the GFS and it looks like it has been an interesting afternoon here on the blog to say the least.

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Can this be right?

Link
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Agreed. Sounds like about 60MPH sustained at best. [or worst, some say]

If the eye stay's well enough west of them, he may not get that wind blowing directly down between the houses there....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting DoubleBranchGuy:
would quickly like to add my meaningless two cents...I'm a lurker since the great season of '04. I live in a high danger flood zone on Tampa Bay. I take this very serious. I use this blog as a tool for in depth information outside of the 2 mins Dennis Phillips gets to speak on ABC. I think this blog is very important and could and does save lives. Thus, I am very sad to see many of the best on this blog leaving...and for such childish reasons...and say THANK YOU to the ones who are staying...I know this is more than a blog to some of you...it's friendship and community...and that's cool...but don't forgot all of us who need and respect the information that is put forth here. Do not degrade a vaulable thing because of middle school antics. Thanks.

I have to say, after being here for a few years, that although a lot happens on here- when it is really important and lives are at stake, especially for the US, this blog and WU in general is the best place to be. You will get up to date information to help you make proper decisions and take the right precautions.

In between times and when the tropics are slow is when many "blow off steam". For me, I come to read and find out what is going on. I ignore the childishness, not with the ignore button either, and just read the rest. Occasionally I comment but mostly just read and watch.

In a place like this you have to take the bad with the good and thankfully when it really matters there is far more good than bad.

Okay, I'll get off of my soapbox now and let you get back to the weather.
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nteraction with another vigorous tropical low and eastern wind shear weakened the storm on September 9. The interaction and weak steering currents brought the storm almost to a halt, meandering around the Cape Verde islands before weakening to a tropical depression as it absorbed the secondary low. The storm regained tropical storm status on September 10, and began to organize again. It rapidly deepened and briefly developed an eye-like feature early on September 11, which persisted for two hours. As Igor absorbed dry air, a process called entrainment, convection decreased, and much of the convection was displaced south of Igor. The storm strengthened into a hurricane, though, late on September 11.

After some slight strengthening, the storm rapidly strengthened early on September 12, and became a Category 4 hurricane that afternoon. Further intensification continued although at a somewhat slower rate in the evening before leveling out in intensity the next morning as a strong Category 4 storm. As Igor entered an eyewall replacement cycle, its winds decreased a little, but still maintained Category 4 status. However, almost a day later, the eye became better defined, and Igor continued its strengthening streak again, nearly reaching Category 5 intensity early on September 15. However, several hours later, Igor entered another larger eyewall replacement cycle, this time much more obvious, and weakened down to a lower-end Category 4 hurricane. On September 16, Igor reached a diameter of 506 miles (814 kilometers), making it the third-largest Atlantic hurricane on record. Since then, the storm has flucuated between a moderate to strong Category 2 Hurricane as it heads towards Bermuda. On September 19, the weakened storm battered Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane. Later, in the morning of September 19, the storm grew in size, and soon became the largest Atlantic hurricane ever, with a diameter of 633 miles (1,018 kilometers).


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Wow according to this Igor is the largest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded beating out Faith with it's 633 mile diameter size.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
848:

WOW!!! I told you we'd have a gigantic Atlantic hurricane this year but I wasn't seriously expecting this!

First 1,000 km tropical cyclone recorded in the Atlantic Basin!

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I am wondering whether Igor will break Earl's record as the deepest tropical storm ever.

Judging by his complete lack of structure of any kind now, I'll go a head and say that I think he will.

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857. 7544
i believe ther are more majors to follow but will the new one be as big as igor time will tell
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247.5wsw - 270w - 292.5wnw - 315nw - 337.5nnw
HurricaneIgor's heading had turned northward to (8.7degrees north of) NorthNorthWest
from its previous heading of (10.4degrees west of) NorthNorthWest
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~16.7mph(~26.8km/h)

18Sep 09pmGMT - - 27.1n64.3w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #43
19Sep 12amGMT - - 27.7n64.5w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #43A
19Sep 03amGMT - - 28.2n64.7w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #44
19Sep 06amGMT - - 28.3n65.1w - - - 90mph - - 949mb - - NHC.Adv.#44A
19Sep 09amGMT - - 28.9n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45
19Sep 12pmGMT - - 29.6n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45A
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.4n65.4w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #46
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.8n65.7w - - - 85mph - - 952mb - - #46A
19Sep 09pmGMT - - 31.5n65.9w - - - 80mph - - 951mb - - #47


Copy&paste 27.1n64.3w, 27.7n64.5w, 28.2n64.7w, 28.3n65.1w, 28.9n65.3w-29.6n65.3w, 29.6n65.3w-30.4n65.4w, 30.4n65.4w-30.8n65.7w, 30.8n65.7w-31.5n65.9w, meo, 31.5n65.9w-bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours

Unless there is an eastward turn, looks like H.Igor's center will pass more than 80miles(~130kilometers) west of Bermuda before heading away.

* The northernmost line-segment shows the 9pmGMT distance between H.Igor's center and Bermuda.
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848:

WOW!!! I told you we'd have a gigantic Atlantic hurricane this year but I wasn't seriously expecting this!
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852. MahFL
Quoting BahaHurican:
Winds definitely picking up in BDA now....

Link


Still no hurricane force sustained though.
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Quoting LeMoyne:
To whom it may concern:

Please respond to posts 809 , 771, 746 about TS Lisa
(or posts on previos blog) about 94L IS a TS MINIMUM - now busting a move after 24 hrs of development.

I understand that today Igor (the bleeding monster) scouring Bermuda for 24 hrs is THE story of the day...
Blessed Be people of Bermuda!

There is a new potential major in town
94 L has been an effective TD for over a day
At least a TS now
94 L IS A growin' more arms!!
1) Current E arm along "dry" line east to Africa w/out flow heading for Algeria
2 and 3) Former W arm splitting in two and moving deeper into moist zone - center seems to be cycling or at least moving SSW
4) Still drawing line to MASSIVE moisture tongue sticking out of Africa with well fed proto arm due south of cyclone.

Exploding on Rainbow, IR and visual !
Moving into moist layer!!! on WV
New arm going black on Dvorak

Jeez ... Is this in your models?

OMG 10x10 degree ccw system with lower convergence and upper divergence embedding itself in moist layer going south in front of a massive monsoon wave off f Africa ...
I like models - I have made computer models in nm range (nano meter - lol) -while the models run/load - look out Here comes LISA!!!!


I've read all your posts today, and, to be honest, I'm not quite sure what it is you're seeing that has you so hyped up about 94L. Yes, it's spinning, and yes, it may--and in fact, probably will--turn into TS Lisa at some point, perhaps as early as tonight or tomorrow morning. But to repeatedly call it a TD or TS already when the experts, using all the massively complicated equipment at their disposal, say that it is for now just an elongated 1008 mb low with 25 knot winds makes me wonder. But I'm always willing to listen. ;-)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doubt it, no renumber was issued.


im suprised it wasnt a td at 5 pm
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Wow according to this Igor is the largest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded beating out Faith with it's 633 mile diameter size.
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846. xcool
lmaoo
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845. 7544
Quoting xcool:
7544 hey.not ghost low .lots model support


thanks thats the one im waiting and watching for if you spot it let me know lol thanks again
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And that's not counting rip currents....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Post 830: Nevermind, you fixed it.
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To whom it may concern:

Please respond to posts 809 , 771, 746 about TS Lisa
(or posts on previos blog) about 94L IS a TS MINIMUM - now busting a move after 24 hrs of development.

I understand that today Igor (the bleeding monster) scouring Bermuda for 24 hrs is THE story of the day...
Blessed Be people of Bermuda!

There is a new potential major in town
94 L has been an effective TD for over a day
At least a TS now
94 L IS A growin' more arms!!
1) Current E arm along "dry" line east to Africa w/out flow heading for Algeria
2 and 3) Former W arm splitting in two and moving deeper into moist zone - center seems to be cycling or at least moving SSW
4) Still drawing line to MASSIVE moisture tongue sticking out of Africa with well fed proto arm due south of cyclone.

Exploding on Rainbow, IR and visual !
Moving into moist layer!!! on WV
New arm going black on Dvorak

Jeez ... Is this in your models?


OMG 10x10 degree ccw system with lower convergence and upper divergence active for 24 hrs embedding itself in moist layer going south in front of a massive monsoon wave off f Africa ... ZOMG

Please don't get me wrong - I love models - I have made computer models for physics nm range (nano meter - lol) and for business -
Please while the models run/load -
look out
Here comes LISA!!!!
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Wow.... Igor also currently 500 - 575 NM across.... amazing.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
839. xcool
7544 hey.not ghost low .lots model support
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837. 7544
do we see the fl ghost low there xcool how are u ?
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Winds definitely picking up in BDA now....

Link
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting DoubleBranchGuy:
would quickly like to add my meaningless two cents...I'm a lurker since the great season of '04. I live in a high danger flood zone on Tampa Bay. I take this very serious. I use this blog as a tool for in depth information outside of the 2 mins Dennis Phillips gets to speak on ABC. I think this blog is very important and could and does save lives. Thus, I am very sad to see many of the best on this blog leaving...and for such childish reasons...and say THANK YOU to the ones who are staying...I know this is more than a blog to some of you...it's friendship and community...and that's cool...but don't forgot all of us who need and respect the information that is put forth here. Do not degrade a vaulable thing because of middle school antics. Thanks.


+1000
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Quoting DestinJeff:


That one should head well out to sea, however. Good stuff.


Nice mug shot

Igor is a massive storm DOOOOOM! <<<<< weather related
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833. xcool
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 192046
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 82 KT AND 68 KT...RESPECTIVELY.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY
TO 70 KT. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AND SOME OF THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPENDED OUTWARD BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND EARLIER
ASCAT DATA. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WHILE IGOR
REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY...AND BE
COMPLETED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER IGOR BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES WERE A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE WEST OF THE EARLIER
SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THIS HAS REQUIRED A LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE UPDATED POSITION HAS ALSO REQUIRED
A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...
HOWEVER...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT IN THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF THE TRACK AND THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A
LITTLE EASTWARD AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IGOR IS LIKELY TO PASS WEST OF
BERMUDA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE
CENTER AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT ON THE ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 31.5N 65.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 33.6N 65.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 36.9N 62.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.6N 58.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 22/1800Z 51.0N 41.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 23/1800Z 55.0N 37.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 24/1800Z 60.0N 37.5W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
It's official: as of today's 5pm TWO, Igor's ACE is 39.4875, which is--perhaps incredibly--higher than that of any storm in the Atlantic since 2004's Hurricane Ivan. ACE-wise, Igor has been a more energetic storm than even 2005's record-breaking monster Hurricane Wilma and 2008's very destructive Hurricane Ike. (Ivan's ACE was an amazing 70.4, a number which, given that the Cape Verde season is winding down, is highly unlikely to be surpassed this year.)

Perhaps even more astonishing is that Igor's ACE to-date is higher than that for the entire Eastern Pacific this season. (The EPac has seen six named storms, including Cat 5 Celia) And Igor is closing in on equaling or surpassing the current ACE for the entire Western North Pacific, as well, which has seen 11 named storms (including the adorably-named Lionrock); if Igor can hold on for a few more days, he'll likely reach that number, as well.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Down in stormtop's basement? Sorry, couldn't resist! XD

Anyway, I posted this earlier, but it got caught on the last page. Here is a recent MW pass (<2 hrs old) on 94L, showing the potential the invest has at being named:



I'd post one for Igor too, but there hasn't been a recent pass for him, unfortunately. At least he's getting in range of the Bermuda radar.
Somebody was posting about an "eye feature" earlier today. I wouldn't go that far just yet, but I do see the COC seems quite well defined on that microwave pass...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
828. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:




yup 94L is well on its way we may have 95L at some point today or monday


thanks taz
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94L continues to get better organized. If the trend continues, we should have 14L by morning.
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826. 7544
is there a low trying to form in the carb south of pr? tia
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Quoting 7544:
please no need to bash any site wu is a a great site the people make it what it is theres enough for everyone to go around and enjoy all around

back to 94l looks like it may be called a ts and skip td status




yup 94L is well on its way we may have 95L at some point today or monday
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
824. MahFL
Quoting Krycek1984:


I wonder how far W the eye/center will pass from Bermuda.


Proberbly 90 miles.
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820. 7544
please no need to bash any site wu is a a great site the people make it what it is theres enough for everyone to go around and enjoy all around

back to 94l looks like it may be called a ts and skip td status
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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