A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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920. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:


How about three: Fiona (8/30), Gaston (9/1), and Hermine (9/6)?

Look, I feel your enthusiasm, and it is very possible 94L could surprise us by by becoming another monster. But saying that this will turn into major hurricane Lisa in just 48 hours or so when the system hasn't even been classified as a tropical depression yet seems, I'll say it again, a bit premature...



If the system had organized deep convection I would partially agree with it becoming a monster but right now, well. errmm... LOL!
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whats holding that mess back in south Texas?

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Quoting LeMoyne:
This is *NOT* a normal season - name a storm in the last month that did not become a major


How about three: Fiona (8/30), Gaston (9/1), and Hermine (9/6)?

Look, I feel your enthusiasm, and it is very possible 94L could surprise us by by becoming another monster. But saying that this will turn into major hurricane Lisa in just 48 hours or so when the system hasn't even been classified as a tropical depression yet seems, I'll say it again, a bit premature...

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916. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 PGI47L


yeah
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915. xcool
JLPR2 PGI47L
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Good evening, Levi32. What is your best guess for the GOM by the end of the week?


A storm's likely gonna form in the Caribbean and move up to the north affecting the Gulf of Mexico. I've been warning about it for a long time now, but I don't know where landfall is likely to be yet. Let's wait until it's developing.
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The cold SST wake left by Igor will be one of the biggest you'll ever see. We can already start to see part of it from the beginning of his track, but most of it won't show up until a couple days after the storm is gone and the satellites get a chance to completely measure the area.

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912. JLPR2
The monsoonal trof off the western coast of Africa seems to be calming down while the real TW fires convection inland and what appears to be a new wave is coming into view.

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Quoting swlaaggie:


Isn't there 20-30 knots of shear plus dry air currently chewing up the entire north side? See WV and CMSS shear map.

Lisa (94L) is moving south into moist zone away from "dry" layer that Lisa bent.
Also looks ragged because NEW ARMS have formed out of old/original West arm, east arm rotated N.
Lisa has pushed dry N and over topped it for a DAY
hole in "dry" layer is Julia's track
Julia and Igor pumping water into "dry" layer for a day (I) or more (J). THe actions of the 3 TCs are turning that dry layer into toast - soggy toast.
WV - Lisa halfway to heaven - see the move south?!?
Are you sure the shear is not her outflow?
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Quoting Levi32:
Pretty amazing to watch....Igor is so large that the Atlantic Ocean can't sustain him, and the front part of the storm cools the ocean so much that convection can no longer fire on the back side (southern side). Pretty amazing stuff. Bermuda is getting whacked but not horrifically bad from what I can tell. This is still a solid hurricane though, and a nasty one, but the Atlantic was not built to sustain tropical cyclones of this size. The only place that could possibly do it is the Caribbean, and you rarely get them that big down there.


Good evening, Levi32. What is your best guess for the GOM by the end of the week?
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909. xcool
rmbjoe1954 page 18
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908. xcool
Link

psu long range euro.check outt.
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Igor looks just like brother earl when he was a cat 1.

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Quoting xcool:
gfs Ensemble 12z Euro Ensemble agree that good ....


???????? What r u talking about???????
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Pretty amazing to watch....Igor is so large that the Atlantic Ocean can't sustain him, and the front part of the storm cools the ocean so much that convection can no longer fire on the back side (southern side). Pretty amazing stuff. Bermuda is getting whacked but not horrifically bad from what I can tell. This is still a solid hurricane though, and a nasty one, but the Atlantic was not built to sustain tropical cyclones of this size. The only place that could possibly do it is the Caribbean, and you rarely get them that big down there.
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904. Skyepony (Mod)
  • The rich text button (all the way to the right of the blue buttons above the comment boxes is fun..
  • I can make lists
copy odd images without knowing any html & things..from my pws



& if you hate it click on "plain Text" which should appear where "Rich Text" was to switch back.

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Quoting Neapolitan:


I've read all your posts today, and, to be honest, I'm not quite sure what it is you're seeing that has you so hyped up about 94L. Yes, it's spinning, and yes, it may--and in fact, probably will--turn into TS Lisa at some point, perhaps as early as tonight or tomorrow morning. But to repeatedly call it a TD or TS already when the experts, using all the massively complicated equipment at their disposal, say that it is for now just an elongated 1008 mb low with 25 knot winds makes me wonder. But I'm always willing to listen. ;-)

Look at the inflow and outflow and size - biggest in the ATL now .. ok so I need a brek afer follwing its development.
It will be a major Tuesday at the latest
It just moved S into the moist layer and eye is cycling but it has *buried* the dry layer AND moved away from it. How many arms does it need to be a TS?
It will soon have 3 at a minumum I think it will have 4+ soon. If it attaches to the African moisture that it has been pointing at all day it will be a major in a few hours. This is *NOT* a normal season - name a storm in the last month that did not become a major
Lisa is in hurricane heaven now ....
People looking for storms a week or two out in the model - never saw but 2 replies.
Had established TD signature since last night really
certainly since this morning.
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902. xcool
gfs Ensemble 12z Euro Ensemble agree that good ....
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Good evening all. Igor is going to be a pain in the arse for Bermuda. I hope all goes well.
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Quoting btwntx08:
and its not even over


nop
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so guys I expect to see somthing like this soon


ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL
STORM LISA ON MONDAY OR MODAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 36.5W
ABOUT 400 MI...1200 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FASTER INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN

(WARNING THIS IS NOT REAL)




i would re move it be for some one think it is all so it would be TD 14
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BTW, I think we've been seeing quite a few of these "rare" unanimous long range forecasts this season. Have we gotten some upgrade in the forecasting skills and didn't tell each other about it?

Bye....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
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Quoting Drakoen:


Indeed, rate to see such agreement among ensemble members that far out.
And not just one set of ensembles either, but multiple (GFS and ECMWF) within the same timeframe. It'll be interesting to see if the CMC ensembles agree as well.
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BBL, all.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Wow, I don't know what each ensemble member is forecasting, but that looks fairly unanimous to me.


Indeed, rate to see such agreement among ensemble members that far out.
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Quoting lickitysplit:
Whats that developing off the west coast of Cuba?


Looks clear to me. What are you seeing?
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887. xcool
i can't wait to see 12z cmc Ensemble...
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The water is warm......and it's deep too!


depends on the bridge...
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885. Skyepony (Mod)
LeMoyne~ I have a hard time seeing that 94L has been an effective TD for over a day now. This morning's ASCAT pass, even though partial, does not suggest it has a closed, organized center of circulation.
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Quoting xcool:


12z Euro Ensemble

Wow, I don't know what each ensemble member is forecasting, but that looks fairly unanimous to me.
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Seems the GFS Ensemble forecasts for development as well:

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Whats that developing off the west coast of Cuba?
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Whew! That worked, and I didn't have to redo my time zone [always a pain in the posterior... .lol]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
880. xcool
Drakoen .interesting Euro Ensemble
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The water is warm......and it's deep too!

LOL isn't that what one guy said to the other?
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878. xcool
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Quoting xcool:


12z Euro Ensemble


Pretty impressive
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94L is def. not a depression yet. The convection has built in around the center yet and although theres alot of convection is areas around the center, it needs to move over the center so the pressure can fall. I agree with the NHC at least for the time being
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875. xcool


12z Euro Ensemble
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Alright, now looking for the [plain text]button somebody mentioned earlier... where is it again???

LOL KNEW I should have not pressed that button...


Hi Baha..Just go to settings => page preferences => Click on Reset Preferences To Default.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Alright, now looking for the [plain text]button somebody mentioned earlier... where is it again???

LOL KNEW I should have not pressed that button...

What is up with that button anyway. I haven't actually pressed it, but I've heard of many who have and things messing up because of it.

For future reference, Rich Text Button = IT'S A TRAP!!!
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Quoting Neapolitan:


I've read all your posts today, and, to be honest, I'm not quite sure what it is you're seeing that has you so hyped up about 94L. Yes, it's spinning, and yes, it may--and in fact, probably will--turn into TS Lisa at some point, perhaps as early as tonight or tomorrow morning. But to repeatedly call it a TD or TS already when the experts, using all the massively complicated equipment at their disposal, say that it is for now just an elongated 1008 mb low with 25 know winds makes me wonder. But I'm always willing to listen. ;-)


Isn't there 20-30 knots of shear plus dry air currently chewing up the entire north side? See WV and CMSS shear map.
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871. srada
Quoting DestinJeff:


Howdy, srada.

I blame you for the mess, what with the way you went picking on me and Dewey and all last week.

New GFS will be watched my many, for sure.


Hey..I blame the drum set but oh well..to each his/her own..
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Alright, now looking for the [plain text]button somebody mentioned earlier... where is it again???

LOL KNEW I should have not pressed that button...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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