A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 970 - 920

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Noticed he models seeming to want to latch onto Caribbean disturbance as well. I don't understand half of what the HPC says but their graphic suggests they're "feeling" something happening too.



Sure looks like it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it's hard to get a lock until a system is actually developing, but the overall message that is being proclaimed is that the SW Atlantic Basin is going to be lighting up and the United States needs to be aware that October could be the most dangerous month for them.


Noticed he models seeming to want to latch onto Caribbean disturbance as well. I don't understand half of what the HPC says but their graphic suggests they're "feeling" something happening too.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



tust me thats not Karl the nhc been tracking that for days now its NOT Karl we had that long be for we had Karl


IT IS NOT Karl


lol I never said it was. I meant "it" as in disturbance. I honestly don't know if it is or not because I've been busy and have not been checking maps or other sources of info, so I didn't specify on something I didn't know. That's why I just used "it".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



tust me thats not Karl the nhc been tracking that for days now its NOT Karl we had that long be for we had Karl


IT IS NOT Karl


I think it might be Karl, as the remnants drifted off Mexico into the Aculpulco area, then re-emerged in the EPac. The remnants of the organized outflow of Karl are over the Texas-Mexico border.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
48 hr Out

Still Raining in South Texas

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
960. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 305st0rm:


I'm FROM florida (UM graduate), but i live in Sparta, NJ. Not FLcasting....just showing how strong GFS is taking it.


I know, other folks on here like to send everything to FL. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Let the FLcasting begin!


I'm FROM florida (UM graduate), but i live in Sparta, NJ. Not FLcasting....just showing how strong GFS is taking it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
956. xcool
cmc was first to develop storm in sw cab ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taz does not run the blog he is the pin-hole eye instructor!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Here it is in the EPAC TWO:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN




tust me thats not Karl the nhc been tracking that for days now its NOT Karl we had that long be for we had Karl


IT IS NOT Karl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
896 raggpr


Ayeesh. That wind field is HUGE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
NOGAPS leaping onboard now too....things are taking shape as far as model support for this idea now.

The NOGAPS and CMC develop it much earlier than the ECMWF and GFS so I would assume that these pairs are developing different cyclones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it's hard to get a lock until a system is actually developing, but the overall message that is being proclaimed is that the SW Atlantic Basin is going to be lighting up and the United States needs to be aware that October could be the most dangerous month for them.


Thanks, Levi32. I have been run over by Rita and Ike. I keep my eyes wide open this time of year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh btw, I found Karl.


Here it is in the EPAC TWO:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




thats not Karl


It is energy related to Karl, as even though Karl rapidly dissipated over the mountains parts of it managed to draw over to the EPAC. That is similar to the manner in which Hermine formed, only vice versa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog has been great last couple days,levi32 does a great job,blog has been as calm as i have seen it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NOGAPS leaping onboard now too....things are taking shape as far as model support for this idea now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From my latest 'By The Numbers' blog post, a few tidbits:

Today marks our eighth consecutive day with multiple named systems in existence, and the 18th of the season. Overall, there have been six days this season with multiple active hurricanes, and two days with multiple major hurricanes. Since August 22, there has only been one day with no named storms in existence (September 5).

If today ends without the birth of Lisa--which, given the state of 94L, isn't guaranteed--it will mark the longest gap between named storms in almost a month since Danielle came into being. Since 8/22, no more than four full days went by without the birth of a named storm.

ACE Accumulation

TCs by Date
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
Oh btw, I found Karl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Thank you, Levi32. I knew you had been bringing attention to possible activity in this area. I was hoping you were starting to get a better lock on it. I will keep watching for your updates.


Yeah it's hard to get a lock until a system is actually developing, but the overall message that is being proclaimed is that the SW Atlantic Basin is going to be lighting up and the United States needs to be aware that October could be the most dangerous month for them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




i would re move it be for some one think it is all so it would be TD 14


LOL - ROFL !!! --
See posts 746, 771, 809, 841
Lisa is exploding after 24 hrs solid development.

now I'm thinking they dont know what to call it...
ROFL (not in the model I guess)

Can see lower level flow screaming perpendicular to center (at over 60mph) still 100 miles away. On all sides .... ROFL - excellent post
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To Admin.

I am begging for your intervention here in the blog. No one is following the “Rules of the Road you have established including me in writing this post. Please provide us with your position on censorship you have place in the hands of the bloggers. If we, the bloggers are too literally comply with the “Rules of the Road” 90% of the post should be blocked by using the “Report to blog administrator !”

I am personally getting very sick and tired of the repetitive question “where is StormW?” with repetitive philosophical answers that I could care less about. The question and the answers are in direct violation of your “Rules of the Road” and have continually been abused. If you choose not to intervene here then we are then left to monitor ourselves and use the control option you have provided at our discretion.

I have been coming here since 2007 to get valuable information during the hurricane seasons. Most of the bloggers that use to provide this information has either gone or comes in occasionally now. The ones that stop in occasionally admit their lack of attendance is a direct result of all the nonsense that goes on in here. If this blog has met all your expectations and is on target for what you foreseen it to be, then no answer is required. We will administer censorship as we see fit. I can assure you if this happens it’s going to get a lot uglier than it has been the last several weeks. We await you response.

Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Canadian ensembles show a whole lot of precipitation in the Gulf of Mexico and on up the eastern seaboard, indicating tropical activity getting drawn northward by the trough out of the Caribbean.



About time, we in VA need the rain desperately. Thanks for the encouraging news levi, pattern change is coming up not too long from now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


How about three: Fiona (8/30), Gaston (9/1), and Hermine (9/6)?

Look, I feel your enthusiasm, and it is very possible 94L could surprise us by by becoming another monster. But saying that this will turn into major hurricane Lisa in just 48 hours or so when the system hasn't even been classified as a tropical depression yet seems, I'll say it again, a bit premature...



Aye, but always expect the unexpected. Take Julia for example.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
  • The rich text button (all the way to the right of the blue buttons above the comment boxes is fun..
  • I can make lists
copy odd images without knowing any html & things..from my pws



& if you hate it click on "plain Text" which should appear where "Rich Text" was to switch back.

  • It is kind of nice
  • multiple options are here
  • creativity


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BreadandCircuses:


So you can say that Igor has been very effective at its job of transferring latent heat from the ocean to the poles.


Yup yup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
The cold SST wake left by Igor will be one of the biggest you'll ever see. We can already start to see part of it from the beginning of his track, but most of it won't show up until a couple days after the storm is gone and the satellites get a chance to completely measure the area.


Yeah, I'm anxiously awaiting to see what it will look like.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
927. xcool
rmbjoe1954 welcome..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Pretty amazing to watch....Igor is so large that the Atlantic Ocean can't sustain him, and the front part of the storm cools the ocean so much that convection can no longer fire on the back side (southern side). Pretty amazing stuff. Bermuda is getting whacked but not horrifically bad from what I can tell. This is still a solid hurricane though, and a nasty one, but the Atlantic was not built to sustain tropical cyclones of this size. The only place that could possibly do it is the Caribbean, and you rarely get them that big down there.

Amazing stuff Levi. Good Afternoon/Evening Everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Canadian ensembles show a whole lot of precipitation in the Gulf of Mexico and on up the eastern seaboard, indicating tropical activity getting drawn northward by the trough out of the Caribbean.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
rmbjoe1954 page 18


Thank you, xcool.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like Igor is turning in too a powerfull cold front its not doing so well now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


A storm's likely gonna form in the Caribbean and move up to the north likely affecting the Gulf of Mexico. I've been warning about it for a long time now, but I don't know where landfall is likely to be yet. Let's wait until it's developing.


Thank you, Levi32. I knew you had been bringing attention to possible activity in this area. I was hoping you were starting to get a better lock on it. I will keep watching for your updates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
920. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:


How about three: Fiona (8/30), Gaston (9/1), and Hermine (9/6)?

Look, I feel your enthusiasm, and it is very possible 94L could surprise us by by becoming another monster. But saying that this will turn into major hurricane Lisa in just 48 hours or so when the system hasn't even been classified as a tropical depression yet seems, I'll say it again, a bit premature...



If the system had organized deep convection I would partially agree with it becoming a monster but right now, well. errmm... LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483

Viewing: 970 - 920

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.