A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1020. Levi32
18z GFS Day 9:

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1019. IKE
Looks like a cold front moves through the SE USA on the 18Z GFS. If that verifies, the GFS may be correct in the path of a Caribbean """threat-er"""
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1018. MrsOsa
Quoting Jeff9641:


Get a Life! GFS pounds FL by major hurricane. Get ready!


No offense intended, but your avatar kinda looks like a mugshot :)
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1017. LeMoyne
94 L IS A goer
Central area outflowing well over 24 hours - eye is circular and central area is 5 BY 5 in shape and degree size.

Look at Rainbow.
See the eeriely beautiful little hurricane Lisa yet?

I have no doubt that the Cape Verde Islands now this as a tropical storm to say the very least ...

To Neapolitan:
Thanks for your replies and recognition of my enthusiasm - it has been a long go watching 94 L develop and I am sleepless and frustrated. Attention to Igor fine - Igor was a monster and 2 days of giant TS is hard even on prepared Bermuda.

I have seen more discussion of people who are not here and models into next month than this actual growing storm which has just possibly turned into a hurricane. 94 L has been working on it since 1800Z last night TD last night TS some time today now ??? I apologize for any snarkiness

Thank you for your reply.

I have five(?) specific informational posts on the last two blogs and very few replies. Almost nothing as this storm grew from three little vortices into a near(?) hurricane. It drew in things from 5 to 10 degrees away to day. The ccw circulation it is in is way more than 10x10 degrees - and as it moves S it gets better on all sides. The outflow has been constant into the "dry" layer for over 24 hours... cant see it because it subsides (and recycles) or has drifted off into the Sahara. What an awesome not-so-little-anymore system.

Center has moved Suth AND EAST
now at 31.9 14.9 approx

5x5 in the center and growing 2 new symmetrical arms ....

94 L IS A goer.


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Quoting blsealevel:
48 hr Out

Still Raining in South Texas


any predictions when it will STOP raining!
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1015. Dakster
Quoting Jeff9641:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_336.shtml


Thanks... Although it is still 336 hours out... Nothing to worry about just yet.
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1014. RENONV
Quoting Jeff9641:


Get a Life! GFS pounds FL by major hurricane. Get ready!


I got one, but thanks anyway!!!
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1013. IKE
Up the east coast of the lower 48 on the 18Z GFS....

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh you're welcome. :) No. I'm from Orange County. There are several bloggers from the Houston area. Can't think exactly who but I'm pretty sure a couple of them are from Pearland.


Wow. You got a good scare from Katrina and Rita came through your front door. Did Ike stretch out that far?
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1011. Levi32
Quoting WxLogic:


Given that this could be a monsoonal related event... we can pretty much say that its initial development should be slow as it will most likely take a while to consolidate all that energy for cyclogenesis and therefore could definitely be a rather large system... I guess we can take Alex as an example.

By the way... given your comment above it appears you have access to some data that we can't have (at least publicly). :)


Yeah development will likely be slow as monsoonal systems usually are.

And yes, Accuweather Pro has the best ECMWF maps you can ever get, but redistribution is prohibited.
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Quoting Levi32:
ECMWF 850mb winds at Day 7 shows how development is likely to be very monsoonal in nature. I can't show you Day 10, but by that time the monsoonal jet is coming right across central America into the northwest Caribbean, which is really cool to see.



That's what I was wondering when I saw the large low pressure on the 12z EURO. Was it going to be one of those that take forever to spin up and drive us crazy. Like Alex, I believe. Lol
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1008. WxLogic
Here's all the energy attempting to get shape, this excess energy has to be transfer somewhere eventually:

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1007. Dakster
#1005 - Link please. (not that I do not believe you)
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1006. WxLogic
Quoting Levi32:
ECMWF 850mb winds at Day 7 shows how development is likely to be very monsoonal in nature. I can't show you Day 10, but by that time the monsoonal jet is coming right across central America into the northwest Caribbean, which is really cool to see.



Given that this could be a monsoonal related event... we can pretty much say that its initial development should be slow as it will most likely take a while to consolidate all that energy for cyclogenesis and therefore could definitely be a rather large system... I guess we can take Alex as an example.

By the way... given your comment above it appears you have access to some data that we can't have (at least publicly). :)
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Thank you, AtHome. Do I remember you saying before that you are in the Pearland area?


Oh you're welcome. :) No. I'm from Orange County. There are several bloggers from the Houston area. Can't think exactly who but I'm pretty sure a couple of them are from Pearland.
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Thanks, Destin Jeff...
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The damages on Wikipedia for IGOR went from "Minimal" to "Unknown".
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
994. rmbjoe1954 10:25 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
DesinJeff-
what's with the GFS and Florida; do you give it credence?


something has been seen to be there all week long....just have to wait and see...
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Quoting LeMoyne:

Fine ... watch
Limit was dry layer now getting soaked
Starting to spew new arms
Been developing steadily for 24 hours and moistening the dry layer from the S - oter hurricanes from the N tell me is the dry layer holding, advancing, retreating or beng swamped?
Pulling in northern part of monsoon moisture all day
Now moving south closer to big tongue of monsoon moisture that it has been making an arc to for over 8 hours.
Center moving South! and growing
TS at the very least with 10x10 degree fast moving lower convergence oh well... if it has NE shear how has it sent outflow NE all day?
Look at Floater 2 funktop IR rainbow
tell me it's not doing the explosive growth thing (like Igor) and adding new arms from both ends
and moving South way from dry into major wet....

OK my bad about the majors in last month that was wrong mea culpa my bad.
Past really doesnt matter unless it's something like Julia's track through and constant outflow on the "dry" air. Have seen the dry air lose before too.

OK I guess everyone will be surprised again. Or maybe no NHC update till they see how this growth phase works out -
Hsa three strong arms and N arm weak -
Lisa will spin and move further S.
Just did spin and S - will proly do more tho it is a beautiful little hurricane with 2 solid barrd spiral arms and 2 new arms forming symetrically.

Central area outflowing - eye is circular and central area is 5 BY 5 in shape and degree size.
Look at Rainbow.
See the eeriely beautiful little hurricane Lisa yet?



OK, so the wave is developing rapidly, but it's not a TS yet. That's not an eye, it looks more like a dry pocket. However, the motion into the strong ICTZ is alarming, as it could eventually turn out to be monstrous as it drifts into the open Atlantic but models don't predict such an intensification.

Now tell me, and look at the image below. Does the storm in the SE corner look like a TD to you?



This storm formed out of a combination between a wave and the ICTZ, just like future Lisa, and became a gigantic Hurricane Alex two weeks later.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2836
998. xcool


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ECMWF 850mb winds at Day 7 shows how development is likely to be very monsoonal in nature. I can't show you Day 10, but by that time the monsoonal jet is coming right across central America into the northwest Caribbean, which is really cool to see.

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Quoting NRAamy:
48 hours out.....still not raining in South Calif....


Rain? In southern California? In September?
Has that ever happened without also bringing thunderstorms and really lighting up this place? :-)
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DesinJeff-
what's with the GFS and Florida; do you give it credence?
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When Igor turns extra tropical, could someone post a loop of him passing by Bermuda?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Levi32:


He is really funny isn't he lol. Thanks for the compliment.


You deserve it. You do realize that your updates will save people!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Noticed he models seeming to want to latch onto Caribbean disturbance as well. I don't understand half of what the HPC says but their graphic suggests they're "feeling" something happening too.



Thank you, AtHome. Do I remember you saying before that you are in the Pearland area?
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Latest GFS sends pounding rains into Newfoundland from Igor on Tuesday. Let's see where it tracks Nicole.



Nicole?
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Quoting RENONV:
Palmpt,

I was there and witnessed the devastation and worked with the victim’s on the entire cost line of Mississippi.


Good for you. Thanks. I was with governor Barbour last week in DC at the Newseum honoring the Mississippi recovery at the Katrina exhibit. We made a big deal, always have, about the people who came here to help us.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Latest GFS sends pounding rains into Newfoundland from Igor on Tuesday. Let's see where it tracks Nicole.




Nicole???? where did the M storm go lol
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Quoting Neapolitan:


How about three: Fiona (8/30), Gaston (9/1), and Hermine (9/6)?

Look, I feel your enthusiasm, and it is very possible 94L could surprise us by by becoming another monster. But saying that this will turn into major hurricane Lisa in just 48 hours or so when the system hasn't even been classified as a tropical depression yet seems, I'll say it again, a bit premature...


Fine ... watch
Limit was dry layer now getting soaked
Starting to spew new arms
Been developing steadily for 24 hours and moistening the dry layer from the S - other hurricanes from the N
Tell me is the dry layer holding, advancing, retreating or being swamped?
Pulling in northern part of monsoon moisture all day
Now moving south closer to big tongue of monsoon moisture that it has been making an arc to for over 8 hours.
Center moving South! and growing
TS at the very least with 10x10 degree fast moving lower convergence oh well... if it has NE shear how has it sent outflow NE all day?
Look at Floater 2 funktop IR rainbow
tell me it's not doing the explosive growth thing (like Igor) and adding new arms from both ends
and moving South way from dry into major wet....

OK my bad about the majors in last month that was wrong mea culpa my bad.
Past really doesnt matter unless it's something like Julia's track through and constant outflow on the "dry" air. Have seen the dry air lose before too.

OK I guess everyone will be surprised again. Or maybe no NHC update till they see how this growth phase works out -
Has three strong arms and N arm weak -
Lisa will spin and move further S.
Just did spin and S - will proly do more tho it is a beautiful little hurricane with 2 solid barrd spiral arms and 2 new arms forming symetrically.

Central area outflowing - eye is circular and central area is 5 BY 5 in shape and degree size.
Look at Rainbow.
See the eeriely beautiful little hurricane Lisa yet?

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985. xcool
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48 hours out.....still not raining in South Calif....
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Quoting palmpt:
Levi, you have become legit. I spend a lot of time on weather... and your updates are the best. They are really good. Hang in there with us. You and Bastardi bring serious analysis. I was not much of a Bastardi fan, by the way, until I joined Accueather Pro. I look forward to his daily videos like I do yours. He is a funny guy.


He is really funny isn't he lol. Thanks for the compliment.
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Palmpt,

I was there and witnessed the devastation and worked with the victim’s on the entire cost line of Mississippi.
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Latest GFS sends pounding rains into Newfoundland from Igor on Tuesday. Let's see where it tracks Nicole.

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2836
3 days out



6 days out

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48-h loop of Karl and remnants:



Karl's remnants off Mexico Saturday evening:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2836
Levi, you have become legit. I spend a lot of time on weather... and your updates are the best. They are really good. Hang in there with us. You and Bastardi bring serious analysis. I was not much of a Bastardi fan, by the way, until I joined Accueather Pro. I look forward to his daily videos like I do yours. He is a funny guy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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