A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2370 - 2320

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

In fact, that run has the projected storm swerving so much all over the place. So much so, the storm could be arrested for DUI.

Too much Caribbean rum.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I guess that means the trough will pretty strong and start recurving the storm much earlier than the western caribbean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good morning Jeff,

yeah, I was reading from a few other forecasters that even though there is going to be a building high pressure a weakness in the high is projected to be strong enough to curve the storm north then northeast most likely far enough to affect the west coast of florida.

If this happens, I am curious the potential strength of the storm and how far east and north it could curve.

I just wonder about the amount of dry air the storm will encounter... should be interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, the 6z GFS brings one into Georgia by the end.

Pretty much on top of Savannah.

That model has had something about Georgia this year, not been the first time it has tried it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All the models seem to indicate the tropical cyclone being depicted will become absolutely massive, big as Igor.
GFS for example.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FlyingScotsman:


Actually, from quite early on the official forecast called for a Cat. 2 at Bermuda...all of us upcasting Wunderbloggers just thought that must be too low.


Most of the time, though there were advisories calling for a major impact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
At one point, Bermuda was looking at possibly a Category 4 hurricane direct hit. Cat 3 at least.

They managed to get away with a weakening Category One while missing the worst winds.

Bermuda have both been lucky and unlucky this year. Unlucky in the fact that 4 storms have wanted to get close, but also lucky that those 4 storms have all weakened and/or deviated away.


Actually, from quite early on the official forecast called for a Cat. 2 at Bermuda...all of us upcasting Wunderbloggers just thought that must be too low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well .....good wind and low pressure at Station 41040 (14.5N 53W)

Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts ENE
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1009.8 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, Igor has the highest ACE of any Atlantic Hurricane since Ivan in 2004....

It's up over 40 right now..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2358. scott39
Quoting IKE:


If a high builds back in it would probably force it back west some.

Thanks, Hopefully our luck will hold for another season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


If a high builds back in it would probably force it back west some.



Might be one of those storms - should it develop - where the timing of the trough is everything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2356. IKE
Quoting scott39:
If an area from New Orleans to the SE Atlantic Coast is exposed and a approaching TC misses that first Trough that pushed the High E, and there is not another Approaching trough. How does this effect the steering of a TC in the GOM?


If a high builds back in it would probably force it back west some.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
both systems one south of hispanola and the other east of the windwards got good potential.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2353. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Not if a front moves through, which I'm not sure is going to even happen.
If an area from New Orleans to the SE Atlantic Coast is exposed and a approaching TC misses that first Trough that pushed the High E, and there is not another Approaching trough. How does this effect the steering of a TC in the GOM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike
- Just wanted to thank you for adding the NWS reporting station at the top of your posts.

MODIFIED - You too swlaggie
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At one point, Bermuda was looking at possibly a Category 4 hurricane direct hit. Cat 3 at least.

They managed to get away with a weakening Category One while missing the worst winds.

Bermuda have both been lucky and unlucky this year. Unlucky in the fact that 4 storms have wanted to get close, but also lucky that those 4 storms have all weakened and/or deviated away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2350. IKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2349. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1165 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks. I believe in another blog, someone asked if Karl might do that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2347. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Not if a front moves through, which I'm not sure is going to even happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The carribean is very very juicy. something likely to percolate up from that area soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Hurricane Igor is moving north-east of Bermuda after pounding the island with huge winds and fierce waves.

The storm caused flooding and power cuts to thousands of homes, but spared Bermuda the widespread destruction of a direct hit.

...

A Royal Navy warship and helicopter had been standing offshore ready to help with relief efforts.


But considerable damage was still reported, as residents battened down their homes and property, and winds brought down trees and power lines.

Flooding was reported in low-lying areas late on Sunday, while streets in the capital Hamilton were under several inches of water and littered with storm debris.

There have been no reports of anyone being injured.

Bermuda's energy company, Belco, said about 16,000 of its 35,000 customers were without power."

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2344. IKE
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...
8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
Location: 35.2°N 64.0°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2343. MahFL
Quoting P451:
Igor continuing to steadily transition to extra-tropical. The core collapse he went through yesterday was the beginning of this transition.

Anyone have any info on how Bermuda fared?



26,300 out of 35,000 with no power.
A few sunken boats.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cctxshirl:
Question-96L on the Pacific side--is that from Karl?


It's related to what was Karl, yeah. Much in the same way that energy from TD11-E helped spawn Hermine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2341. 7544
Quoting shawn26:
Does anyone think anything is going to form in the carribean by this weekend?


morning all looks like something trying to get going down there now maybe 95l today ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


A link to an onsite blog is legit....
A link to an offsite (nonWU) is basically spamming.



According to Dr. Masters Rules of the Road, what you've implied in the direct quote you've made above is an out and out untruth.

From Dr. Masters' Rules of the Road:

Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.

From my short time on this blog, I've noticed that you yourself do this all the time.

Shame on you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2338. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, Doesnt that open a weakness over New Orleans late this weakend?


Not if a front moves through, which I'm not sure is going to even happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2337. shawn26
Does anyone think anything is going to form in the carribean by this weekend?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2336. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I'd say in about 2-3 days they'll have a better handle on it.

Here's the New Orleans extended....

"LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SLIDING THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND SLIDING A
TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN MORE AGGRESSIVENESS WITH THESE
FEATURES AS THEY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND ADVERTISE DEW POINTS AND TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUMMER TYPE TEMPS
MAY LINGER A FEW DAYS INTO THE FALL...BUT ACCORDING TO THIS CHANGE
IS ON THE WAY."
Thanks, Doesnt that open a weakness over New Orleans late this weakend?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Question-96L on the Pacific side--is that from Karl?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
we are going to see his name again in the future igor
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2333. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, When do forecasts of troughs and high pressures become the most accurate? ( Time Wise)


I'd say in about 2-3 days they'll have a better handle on it.

Here's the New Orleans extended....

"LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SLIDING THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND SLIDING A
TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN MORE AGGRESSIVENESS WITH THESE
FEATURES AS THEY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND ADVERTISE DEW POINTS AND TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUMMER TYPE TEMPS
MAY LINGER A FEW DAYS INTO THE FALL...BUT ACCORDING TO THIS CHANGE
IS ON THE WAY."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2332. liljade
The wave in the gulf looks to be moving out more into the Gulf, am I seeing this right? The beach has been rough and tides above normal in Galveston.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2330. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Here's the Tallahassee,FL. extended covering the panhandle through Walton county....

"""LONG TERM...
(WED. NIGHT - MONDAY). THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEY DO GENERALLY INDICATE DECREASING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AND SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING
SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY NARROW MOISTURE
AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IN ITS
WAKE...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY AIRMASS FILLING BACK IN
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK."""..............
............................................

ECMWF shows a NE Caribbean tropical system heading west across the Yucatan...like Alex and Karl, because of high pressure over the SE USA.

GFS shows a Caribbean storm crossing Cuba and grazing the east coast of Florida and heading up toward GA. Based off of the cold front moving through the northern GOM, forcing a system NE to NNE in track.

Looks like either scenario protects the northern GOM...subject to change though.
Thanks, When do forecasts of troughs and high pressures become the most accurate? ( Time Wise)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
no doom with igor take more than a cat 1 to do that its rare to get a major over those islands
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2327. IKE
Here's the Tallahassee,FL. extended covering the panhandle through Walton county....

"""LONG TERM...
(WED. NIGHT - MONDAY). THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEY DO GENERALLY INDICATE DECREASING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AND SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING
SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY NARROW MOISTURE
AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IN ITS
WAKE...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY AIRMASS FILLING BACK IN
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK."""..............
............................................

ECMWF shows a NE Caribbean tropical system heading west across the Yucatan...like Alex and Karl, because of high pressure over the SE USA.

GFS shows a Caribbean storm crossing Cuba and grazing the east coast of Florida and heading up toward GA. Based off of the cold front moving through the northern GOM, forcing a system NE to NNE in track.

Looks like either scenario protects the northern GOM...subject to change though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not for me, I live well south of the Big Bend.


Ouch, well, then I'll be a loop-caster, he'll/she'll get into the Gulf and do loop-d-loops and not hit any of us. *G*

Classroom of kiddies waiting for me. Have a great day, everyone. Later all!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
2325. scott39
Good Morning, It looks like after this weekend the GFS weakens the high Fl.- Eastward and the EURO keeps in place. So the difference in anything that were to develope is still a big spread in the track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2324. Mikla
The wave near 12,-55 is under good conditions (low shear, moisture, warm water, decent convergence), but needs some rotation if it is to develop into something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Based on the model runs I've seen and the discussions I've read from weather offices in the SE USA, the northern GOM(Louisiana, eastward to the big bend of Florida), may be protected from tropical systems by...high pressure this week and a couple of cold fronts moving through the next 7-12 days.


the power of positive thinking in play - cool weather and no spinning thingies

:-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2321. IKE
Jackson,MS.....

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
ARKLAMISS THROUGH LATE WEEK ACCORDING TO GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE...THUS KEEPING THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AROUND FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS...BUT A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND TO MORE OF A POSITIVE PNA TYPE WITH A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD FIZZLE OUT BY LATE
IN THE EVENING.

PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERMODYNAMIC
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE < 1000 J/KG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FEW MOS MEMBERS IN THE GEFS INDICATE LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S NEXT SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...ESPECIALLY BEYOND SUNDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:


That works for me. *S*


Not for me, I live well south of the Big Bend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2370 - 2320

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.