A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1070 - 1020

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Wow. You got a good scare from Katrina and Rita came through your front door. Did Ike stretch out that far?


Well Katrina was a ways to our east. Gustav gave us a scare for sure but missed. Yes Rita came right through our front door. Kind of ironic, that wording. The first phone report we got from home was an oak tree had come through our front door. Actually it made its own front door. Lol. But county wide she roared through. Ike flooded the county. I was on a high spot and the trees fell away from the house this time. But Bridge City, Rose City, Orange, don't think anyone escaped him cleanly. Our highest elevation is 13ft. so we were in for it with that one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1067. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:


That's the same one. It's just shifted it further east.

Cold front could be a savior.


Then it takes it back:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting breald:


Now that would be interesting.


Up the E cost? Looks like it heads up to the SC/NC border...And then decides it wants to head back down to the Bahamas? Right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
Well... I guess GFS 18Z updated while I was typing my observations.

If the High is strong enough as it build East then I could actually push this system back into CONUS.


18z model actually loops "Matthew"...



...and brings the storm back toward the Gulf, where it could undergo Fujiwara with yet another system (Otto?) that actually forms from the combination of an EPac system and the outflow of Matthew.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the 18z GFS is having fun toying with half the E coast, and at the end tries to get the W gulf in on it too...

Stay tuned, should be an interesting two weeks as the models progress and tracks shift...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1063. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Cape Verde conveyor-belt still going strong... slipping further south this time in the season. Higher chance of them going 'west'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bleugh...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
1060. Levi32
Quoting winter123:


Very impressive modelcasting. None of this will come true though.


Except that this isn't modelcasting. The pattern said this was likely to happen long before the GFS ever hinted at it strongly. Now the models are picking up on it and supporting the idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1059. IKE
Quoting whs2012:
Wasn't GFS developing a storm in the GOM a few days ago? What ever happened to that?


That's the same one. It's just shifted it further east.

Cold front could be a savior.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


That's almost no rain Taz lol.



rats
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1056. breald
Quoting IKE:
Up the east coast of the lower 48 on the 18Z GFS....



Now that would be interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
how many storms have we seen so far in SEP?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1054. WxLogic
Quoting anyotherliestotell:


getting desperate i see. the season is almost done. igor is moving away, karl is gone and julia never was much to talk about. nothing out there now but a fish storm and a possibility something "might develop" down the road in a week, when it will almost be august..


Jeje... nah is good to speculate in scenarios like this as it give you a sense of how things are shaping up and also makes people think and talk about WX instead of non related topics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1052. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like CA geting in with the rain has well


That's almost no rain Taz lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1051. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
weaker and further east on 18z. keep it going that way, thank you much.



I'll 2nd those thoughts.

We could have some cooler weather here if that GFS verifies and the tropical threat would be east of us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1050. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Still cant get over how HUGE the storm on the 12z GFS was.

Classic monsoonal development.




Unfortunately such a development is likely to be rather large, considering the amount of energy that will be bundling in that area of the world. The only real good news we can glean from that is that if it does become a monstrous monsoonal development, it would likely take a long time to wind up, and if Cuba were to come into play then the storm might not end up horridly strong, but again, things like that can't be known until the development is upon us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the core is just W of Bermuda. Making the NNE Turn now. This is it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS ensembles show the axis of heavy precip right up across Cuba and off the SE US coast for days 11-15, indicating the corridor of tropical moisture that will be funneling northward into the troughiness aloft. Whether this corridor of moisture actually is east of Florida or farther west over the Gulf of Mexico remains to be seen, but it is highly likely that this pattern will see a lot of tropical moisture being drawn northward towards the US.




looks like CA geting in with the rain has well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RENONV:


I got one, but thanks anyway!!!


Your avitar looks like it may be 56' Carver. Am I close?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1045. Levi32
Quoting muddertracker:
Is that circulation unusually broad?


Yes monsoonal lows generally start with rather broad circulations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
make that october. the countdown to the end of hurricane season (Nov. 1) is here.


You mean Nov 30th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1043. Levi32
12z GFS ensembles show the axis of heavy precip right up across Cuba and off the SE US coast for days 11-15, indicating the corridor of tropical moisture that will be funneling northward into the troughiness aloft. Whether this corridor of moisture actually is east of Florida or farther west over the Gulf of Mexico remains to be seen, but it is highly likely that this pattern will see a lot of tropical moisture being drawn northward towards the US.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
ECMWF 850mb winds at Day 7 shows how development is likely to be very monsoonal in nature.

Is that circulation unusually broad?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


Very impressive modelcasting. None of this will come true though.


18z run makes Matthew the main storm rather than Nicole. The storm has been predicted consistently for many days now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1037. hydrus
Quoting WxLogic:


Taking the assumption this is correct... which we know is not. We'll have to take a look at the building High. There could be a possibility that this system could actually ride along the whole US coast:

Yes...Hurricane Warnings from Miami Beach to Portland Maine.....jk..:) Good evening WxLogic..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
1036. IKE
All 4 runs of today's GFS have a storm either crossing peninsula Florida and going up the east coast or going up the east coast and going just east of Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


Very impressive modelcasting. None of this will come true though.



dont be too sure about that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still cant get over how HUGE the storm on the 12z GFS was.

Classic monsoonal development.


Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
1032. WxLogic
Well... I guess GFS 18Z updated while I was typing my observations.

If the High is strong enough as it build East then I could actually push this system back into CONUS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The damages on Wikipedia for IGOR went from "Minimal" to "Unknown".


Probably because it's currently impacting Bermuda. Damages on the island have not come in yet and are unknown.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Since the 18z GFS run is not yet complete, I'll have to post the 12z run.

Here's Lisa, at 48h:



Matthew appears at 144h, near the border between Honduras and Nicaragua, while Lisa drifts toward 20N:



While Matthew makes landfall and drifts over Belize, storms start to organize between Nicaragua and Jamaica, at 180h:



Nicole forms south of Jamaica, and the ICTZ becomes active at 204h:



When Nicole drifts NW of Jamaica, a new storm soon to become Otto forms near Cape Verde at 252h:



Nicole makes landfall in Miami and the precursor system to Paula forms over Africa at 324h:



Nicole makes landfall in South Carolina, Paula a weak system at 360h:




Now, let's see what the 18h run brings. Let's hope that this doesn't turn out like the "spurious Fiona" forecast, which ended up as an extratropical system, eventually eating Danielle.


Very impressive modelcasting. None of this will come true though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Since the 18z GFS run is not yet complete, I'll have to post the 12z run.

Here's Lisa, at 48h:



Matthew appears at 144h, near the border between Honduras and Nicaragua, while Lisa drifts toward 20N:



While Matthew makes landfall and drifts over Belize, storms start to organize between Nicaragua and Jamaica, at 180h:



Nicole forms south of Jamaica, and the ICTZ becomes active at 204h:



When Nicole drifts NW of Jamaica, a new storm soon to become Otto forms near Cape Verde at 252h:



Nicole makes landfall in Miami and the precursor system to Paula forms over Africa at 324h:



Nicole makes landfall in South Carolina, Paula a weak system at 360h:




Now, let's see what the 18h run brings. Let's hope that this doesn't turn out like the "spurious Fiona" forecast, which ended up as an extratropical system, eventually eating Danielle.




thanks where the S T V and W storm lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1028. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:
NOGAPS leaping onboard now too....things are taking shape as far as model support for this idea now.

That almost looks like an October set up.- N.E. to S.W. cold front over the Ohio- Tennessee Valley, waiting to pull a tropical storm north and then north-east. The S.W. Caribbean Sea looks stormy at the end of the GEM model.Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
1027. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
Up the east coast of the lower 48 on the 18Z GFS....



Taking the assumption this is correct... which we know is not. We'll have to take a look at the building High. There could be a possibility that this system could actually ride along the whole US coast:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1026. xcool


shear
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Hi Ike... who will be in the potential path of this 'threater'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



Nicole???? where did the M storm go lol


Since the 18z GFS run is not yet complete, I'll have to post the 12z run.

Here's Lisa, at 48h:



Matthew appears at 144h, near the border between Honduras and Nicaragua, while Lisa drifts toward 20N:



While Matthew makes landfall and drifts over Belize, storms start to organize between Nicaragua and Jamaica, at 180h:



Nicole forms south of Jamaica, and the ICTZ becomes active at 204h:



When Nicole drifts NW of Jamaica, a new storm soon to become Otto forms near Cape Verde at 252h:



Nicole makes landfall in Miami and the precursor system to Paula forms over Africa at 324h:



Nicole makes landfall in South Carolina, Paula a weak system at 360h:




Now, let's see what the 18h run brings. Let's hope that this doesn't turn out like the "spurious Fiona" forecast, which ended up as an extratropical system, eventually eating Danielle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1023. WxLogic
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah development will likely be slow as monsoonal systems usually are.

And yes, Accuweather Pro has the best ECMWF maps you can ever get, but redistribution is prohibited.


Interesting... didn't know Accu WX had those percs... guess I didn't really bothered in looking at them as a matter of fact. I might check it out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1021. xcool
Lots of uncertainty gfs model rigth now ...
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
1020. Levi32
18z GFS Day 9:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1070 - 1020

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.