A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting troy1993:
Levi32..is it possible that we could looking at a situation similar to Hurricane Donna in 1960 for the possible Carribean hurricane?
Could we, like not even go there??? Donna hammered NP for 24 hours...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21175
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
There's some pretty darn good consensus with the patten shift/monsoonal development here. If this keeps up, we may have something. MJO certainty seems like it will be favorable to spit something out in the SW Atlantic.

1) ECMWF
2) ECMWF Ensembles
3) GFS and it's ensembles
4) CMC and its ensembles
5) JMA which is pretty rare
6) NOGAPS


Yeppers.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Oh, I dunno... some of it likely will, particularly the 2 in the short term....

On the 18z runs, I'm always suspicious of a run that takes a storm over Cuba or Hispaniola with no visible aftereffects, especially one that doesn't slow to regain strength. That being said, we've had some storms get up here [Western Bahamas] from across Cuba that ended up anywhere from cat 3 - 5 in the 20s and 30s.... just not a common occurence...


Cuba doesn't always weaken a storm, but it did weaken (in terms of wind speed) Gustav, Ike and Paloma in 2008.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well Katrina was a ways to our east. Gustav gave us a scare for sure but missed. Yes Rita came right through our front door. Kind of ironic, that wording. The first phone report we got from home was an oak tree had come through our front door. Actually it made its own front door. Lol. But county wide she roared through. Ike flooded the county. I was on a high spot and the trees fell away from the house this time. But Bridge City, Rose City, Orange, don't think anyone escaped him cleanly. Our highest elevation is 13ft. so we were in for it with that one.


I am sorry that Rita brought you trouble. I feel your pain. Rita got everything from me. I had to have been hit by a small tornado. My neighbors did not get any damage at all.
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00z CMC

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1113. xcool


head back to fl call loop
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Quoting breald:


Where is Pawleys Island?

Patriots are getting killed by the darn Jets.
Southern SC....Jets are whipping the pats now.
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1111. WxLogic
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, that's one crazy run.


Yeah... hopefully is not a new pattern trying to setup that could make this be Fay like... not for only FL but for any other state that it decides to go to.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:




ouch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
1109. breald
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The 18z scenario could see the OTHER storm in the Gulf stalling while Matthew hits Louisiana, and that other storm stalls in the BoC, eventually hiting Texas as a major hurricane.


yep it is going to be an interesting few weeks.
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Quoting weathermancer:


(crickets)



ah ah lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting FLdewey:
I think we need a bigger boat.



A boat is swamped with water at Flatts Inlet in Smith's parish while Hurricane Igor comes ashore in Bermuda, Sunday, Sept. 19, 2010. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)


Capt. Quint, we pine for your wisdom.
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where did GASTON end up going ???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting Tazmanian:
how many of you still think this year is a bust now lol


(crickets)
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1104. breald
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I'm with you but my cuz in Pawleys Island would not be stoked.. :p


Where is Pawleys Island?

Patriots are getting killed by the darn Jets.
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1016. cctxshirl 10:39 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting blsealevel:
48 hr Out

Still Raining in South Texas



any predictions when it will STOP raining!

Can't rain forever!

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Quoting IKE:
Haven't seen below normal temps in the 6-10 day outlook in the SE USA in a long time....




8-14 day....



but toasty for me :^)
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1100. Levi32
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Bleugh...



Epic. And fortunately, Bermuda is getting the dry side of the storm.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Now 94L got a circle in this graphic, all it needs is a good D-max tonight.

Dang, look at Igor's cone! Lets just go ahead and close off half of the NATL, why don't we? XP
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how many of you still think this year is a bust now lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Invests do not have eyes...lol
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There's some pretty darn good consensus with the patten shift/monsoonal development here. If this keeps up, we may have something. MJO certainty seems like it will be favorable to spit something out in the SW Atlantic.

1) ECMWF
2) ECMWF Ensembles
3) GFS and it's ensembles
4) CMC and its ensembles
5) JMA which is pretty rare
6) NOGAPS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


Very impressive modelcasting. None of this will come true though.
Oh, I dunno... some of it likely will, particularly the 2 in the short term....

On the 18z runs, I'm always suspicious of a run that takes a storm over Cuba or Hispaniola with no visible aftereffects, especially one that doesn't slow to regain strength. That being said, we've had some storms get up here [Western Bahamas] from across Cuba that ended up anywhere from cat 3 - 5 in the 20s and 30s.... just not a common occurence...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21175
Quoting breald:


Up the east coast would be interesting. But NC/SC and then back down to the Bahamas would be something to see.


The 18z scenario could see the OTHER storm in the Gulf stalling while Matthew hits Louisiana, and that other storm stalls in the BoC, eventually hiting Texas as a major hurricane.
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1093. IKE
Haven't seen below normal temps in the 6-10 day outlook in the SE USA in a long time....




8-14 day....


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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Wow, I feel like I'm staring into the abyss here...

Big difference from the near perfectness from a couple days ago:



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1091. LeMoyne
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


OK, so the wave is developing rapidly, but it's not a TS yet. That's not an eye, it looks more like a dry pocket. However, the motion into the strong ICTZ is alarming, as it could eventually turn out to be monstrous as it drifts into the open Atlantic but models don't predict such an intensification.

Now tell me, and look at the image below. Does the storm in the SE corner look like a TD to you?



This storm formed out of a combination between a wave and the ICTZ, just like future Lisa, and became a gigantic Hurricane Alex two weeks later.


94 L has had an eye last night and this AM - outflow has covered it since PM.
The eye has moved W WSW now moved S and a bit EAST into moist layer. Watch the arm coming in from SE - it will become huge soon.

on your pic...
That huge arc of around the storm and the outflow trailing off to the edge of the earth (and the concentric rings) tell me it has the keys: upper divergence and lower convergence - solid symmetrical center - TD at the very least - really have to ask the CV islanders on that - but what looks like E to W shear is that TC drawing in a big monsoonal flow off of Africa - super cell formed as wet flow reaches storm... I call it TS/hurricane though the big gulp it is doing could lessen the winds ... for a while.

Models - i make models - if I wanted to look at models I would use a link.
Check the symmetric shape upon expansion and move south and east. Watch that South east arm - it will grow huge like the one in the picture.
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Quoting breald:


Up the east coast would be interesting. But NC/SC and then back down to the Bahamas would be something to see.
I'm with you but my cuz in Pawleys Island would not be stoked.. :p
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Levi32..is it possible that we could looking at a situation similar to Hurricane Donna in 1960 for the possible Carribean hurricane?
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Five.


Seven actually, seeing as Earl and Fiona persisted into September. But 5 storms formed in September.
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1087. JLPR2
Now 94L got a circle in this graphic, all it needs is a good D-max tonight.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Is that GFS or ECWMF?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Bleugh...



Wow, I feel like I'm staring into the abyss here...
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1083. Levi32
Quoting weathermancer:
Cape Verde conveyor-belt still going strong... slipping further south this time in the season. Higher chance of them going 'west'.


Actually it's the opposite. The retracting ITCZ in October doesn't overcome the effects of longwave troughs diving farther south, which are far more likely to recurve storms in the later part of the season. Unfortunately this also means they can recurve storms in the western Caribbean and draw them up into the United States, like the GFS has been showing.
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1082. IKE
Quoting whs2012:


Could?


If it verifies...yes.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Then it takes it back:


Wow, that's one crazy run.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1080. breald
Quoting StormJunkie:


Up the E cost? Looks like it heads up to the SC/NC border...And then decides it wants to head back down to the Bahamas? Right?


Up the east coast would be interesting. But NC/SC and then back down to the Bahamas would be something to see.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Five.



and here comes 6 7 and 8
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting Tazmanian:
how many storms have we seen so far in SEP?


Five.
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Quoting whs2012:
Wasn't GFS developing a storm in the GOM a few days ago? What ever happened to that?


It's now developing it in the Caribbean and turning it NE toward Cuba and Florida.
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by time 2 weeks end we could be up too W storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Kudos to the Bermuda cams!
Some were a little low-quality and jittery... but... I caught some nice gusts!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.