A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1170. JLPR2
Quoting mbjjm:
Live Webcam from Bermuda


Awesome! They got the creepy uhhh... sound.
Doesn't look like a hurricane for the moment but it sure looks like a strong TS.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1168. Levi32
Quoting troy1993:


Well I meant in terms of going into Florida and affecting the entire East Coast with hurricane force winds


We shall have to see. The exact track can't be known this far out, but I believe it will be drawn north somewhere. Details will be worked out when the storm is developing.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Straight from the Doc's blog

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.




your point is plzs??? that is from this AM mode runs so that info on dr m blog is now old
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Photobucket.

I already have it saved on mine and MANY others.


lol.

Did you already have the one for Hurricane Wilma, or did you add it when I posted it the other day.

Here is the link to the blog I got it from:

Link
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Hurricane Igor

ISS

FULL IMAGE (VERY large)
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Quoting Levi32:


Donna was a Cape Verde hurricane, hardly the same thing we're looking at here.


Well I meant in terms of going into Florida and affecting the entire East Coast with hurricane force winds
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Joe B.

Not a happy camper.

"SUNDAY 10 A.M.

A 949 MB, 75-MPH HURRICANE??

You have to understand the arrogance of this, that these guys can simply fly in the face of all of history. Nevermind the exposing of them by environment Canada in labeling Earl a hurricane when they tried to downgrade that, but now.

So what are the peak gusts going to be on Bermuda with this 75-mph storm?

85? 95? We shall see.

You have to look in awe at this arrogance, which is what it is. They upped Julia to Category 4 at 950, and now we have a 949 mb Category 1. Let's see, we had Fabian go by with $325 million in damage, and it was almost a Category 4. Let's see how this Category 1 compares to that.

In the end, it shows why my Power Scale is far superior to the subjective nonsense we continue to have thrown our way."
....sounds like a few regulars on the blog,call'em haters...,usually because deep down inside they wanna be'em imo....
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Straight from the Doc's blog

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.
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1161. LeMoyne
94 L IS A butterfly



*start snark*
Not developing into a hurricane, no.
It is a ghost in a model that says it must go north and die. Silly butterfly went south and grew... alot.
*end snark*

Center 32-W and 14.5 S

Major real soon I think tomorrow some time ...

So symmetric and really pretty but will begin to get more lopsided soon - I'm almost certain it will move South again now - Maybe East again too - then it will have a full set of 4 wings...

Center looks bigger - prolly just more out flow ...

Just waiting a little while to drink deeply from the rains of Mother Africa. The South arm thickens ....
Here comes the train!!!

LOL - I really need sleep
Takers on 94L status next update? tomorrow?

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Quoting JLPR2:


Wasn't that the one that managed to develop after passing over PR?


Fay strengthened over Florida if I remember right. Hard to keep it straight on that one. It kinda went everywhere...
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
See, its images like this that I wish I could save. Unfortunately, I cant. Anyone have a suggestion on how to?



That is very impressive!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Re:  the Elephant in the Parlor

One if the things that certain people on the blog cannot seem to grasp is that to actively ignore, treat someone as beneath acknowledgment is an assertive act.  The notion that if one does not reply you have "wussed out" is plain wrong.

A second is that others do not necessarily think and respond as you do.  What you find aversive and would avoid may be pleasurable to someone else.  Trolls are not like you.  (At least I hope)

"Never argue with a fool.  People will not be able to tell you apart."
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I think we may see something similar to that of Hurricane Mitch 1998:

Image (Or you could just see Levi's avatar.):

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
See, its images like this that I wish I could save. Unfortunately, I cant. Anyone have a suggestion on how to?




Photobucket.

I already have it saved on mine. MANY other images like it as well.


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1155. WxLogic
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
See, its images like this that I wish I could save. Unfortunately, I cant. Anyone have a suggestion on how to?



You can use GIF Animator which is free. You should be able to save the images as GIF and then the programs will make an animated GIF for you.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z CMC



What direction is the Gulf storm moving in that run?

WEST, and it hits eastern Texas;

NORTHWEST, and it hits Louisiana;

NORTH, and it hits the Florida Panhandle;

NORTHEAST, and it hits the Tampa Area and moves out to sea;

EAST, and it hits the Keys, the northern Bahamas and North Carolina;

STALLED, and it hits Mississippi.
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Bermuda is SOOOO lucky.. a right front quadrant hit from Igor a few days ago would have been really bad.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening Ted...Did you see the NAM..It has a big storm brewing in the S.W. Caribbean...Link


Probably the same system, as the models are showing it beginning to develop in that area.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Remnants went over the Antigua area, south of Puerto Rico, south of the Dominican Republic, over Haiti, then to the east and south of Jamaica, east of Nicaragua, passing just north of Honduras, tracking over Belize and Guatemala, into the southern BoC for one last flare-up, then into the Mountains of Mexico.

Check vortex.plymouth.



thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
1149. Levi32
Quoting troy1993:
Levi32..is it possible that we could looking at a situation similar to Hurricane Donna in 1960 for the possible Carribean hurricane?


Donna was a Cape Verde hurricane, hardly the same thing we're looking at here.
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Quoting IKE:
Haven't seen below normal temps in the 6-10 day outlook in the SE USA in a long time....


In a long, lllooonnnggg time
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See, its images like this that I wish I could save. Unfortunately, I cant. Anyone have a suggestion on how to?

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:

but toasty for me :^)
,that 6-10 day indicates to me tropical systems close by causing it imo
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1145. breald
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Cute pup!...How do you like my new Una-bomber look?


Why do you have a picture of the unabomer?
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1144. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Fairly strong model support in the very long range for a system in the NW Caribbean. Still.. after 94L it appears likely we'll see a lull for about 4 days or so.
Good evening Ted...Did you see the NAM..It has a big storm brewing in the S.W. Caribbean...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20493
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Cute pup!...How do you like my new Una-bomber look?
Thanks! Uhh, not sure where to go with that. I'll have my people look into an appropriate response.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Joe B.

Not a happy camper.

"SUNDAY 10 A.M.

A 949 MB, 75-MPH HURRICANE??

You have to understand the arrogance of this, that these guys can simply fly in the face of all of history. Nevermind the exposing of them by environment Canada in labeling Earl a hurricane when they tried to downgrade that, but now.

So what are the peak gusts going to be on Bermuda with this 75-mph storm?

85? 95? We shall see.

You have to look in awe at this arrogance, which is what it is. They upped Julia to Category 4 at 950, and now we have a 949 mb Category 1. Let's see, we had Fabian go by with $325 million in damage, and it was almost a Category 4. Let's see how this Category 1 compares to that.

In the end, it shows why my Power Scale is far superior to the subjective nonsense we continue to have thrown our way."
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NURLIN
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1139. mbjjm
Live Webcam from Bermuda
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Quoting Tazmanian:
where did GASTON end up going ???


Remnants went over the Antigua area, south of Puerto Rico, south of the Dominican Republic, over Haiti, then to the east and south of Jamaica, east of Nicaragua, passing just north of Honduras, tracking over Belize and Guatemala, into the southern BoC for one last flare-up, then into the Mountains of Mexico.

Check vortex.plymouth.
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1137. JLPR2
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Pre-Fay did back in 2008. That's why we called it the Joker.


Wasn't that the one that managed to develop after passing over PR?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
1136. WxLogic
18Z NOGAPS is trending for a larger disturbance.

Won't be surprised to see NGP slowly keep delaying development until a GFS/ECMWF time frame.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z CMC



there goes lisa...here comes matthew lol
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The 18z scenario could see the OTHER storm in the Gulf stalling while Matthew hits Louisiana, and that other storm stalls in the BoC, eventually hiting Texas as a major hurricane.



hmmmmmm, interesting.
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Fairly strong model support in the very long range for a system in the NW Caribbean. Still.. after 94L it appears likely we'll see a lull for about 4 days or so.
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Quoting Hou77083:
1016. cctxshirl 10:39 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting blsealevel:
48 hr Out

Still Raining in South Texas



any predictions when it will STOP raining!

Can't rain forever!



its been bone dry were i live...everything is dying i watered my grass this eve
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1131. JLPR2
Quoting bird72:


How I can find info. about pgi47il?


you can try this page:
Link
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting Hou77083:
1016. cctxshirl 10:39 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting blsealevel:
48 hr Out

Still Raining in South Texas



any predictions when it will STOP raining!

Can't rain forever!



Blame Karl's outflow.
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1127. bird72
Quoting JLPR2:
Now 94L got a circle in this graphic, all it needs is a good D-max tonight.


How I can find info. about pgi47il? 94l is moving southwest or is just the convection?
Member Since: August 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 389
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
no i mean nov 1 because there never are bad storms after nov 1.




Go away.... Some of us like to actually read what people have to say about tropical weather on here... You are wasting space on the blog, Thanks...
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Quoting muddertracker:
Invests do not have eyes...lol


Pre-Fay did back in 2008. That's why we called it the Joker.
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1124. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
Haven't seen below normal temps in the 6-10 day outlook in the SE USA in a long time....




8-14 day....




Looks like a lot of rain and cloudiness coming soon.
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NOGAPS

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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