A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JLPR2:
I'm confused what is so rare of Igor having that low of a pressure, I thought large systems have lower than normal pressures? O.o


Ike had a minimum central pressure of 944 mb as a cat. 2. Florence hit Bermuda in 2006 and had a minimum pressure of 974 mb. What's so unusual for Igor is that it's become the largest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1280 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
That was either the straight man of all time or....
lol!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting Orcasystems:

We did catch a few :)
Most were released... 30lb chinook are an awful lot of fish for two people.

And you get spoiled eating fresh fish, after you freeze it it's just not the same. (although Chinook is still pretty darn good!)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Igor: 75 mph

94L: 80%
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


GFS model has been consistent on developing this particular storm, but tracks it anywhere from the Gulf to the open Atlantic.


I agree, I believe that something will form, but where it goes -- nobody knows
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Straight from the Doc's blog

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.


GFS model has been consistent on developing this particular storm, but tracks it anywhere from the Gulf to the open Atlantic.
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1210. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


Link


It's blowing harder now.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Nice! That must mean you did pretty well!

We did catch a few :)
Most were released... 30lb chinook are an awful lot of fish for two people.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Tazmanian:




your point is plzs??? that is from this AM mode runs so that info on dr m blog is now old


Taz -- just saying, that we will probably see some action that moves into the GOM, just where ans when is another story
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
That was either the straight man of all time or....
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1206. JLPR2
I'm confused what is so rare of Igor having that low of a pressure, I thought large systems have lower than normal pressures? O.o
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
Quoting hydrus:
You mean Tom and you were paling around when Moses parted the Re....oh.
We went brontasaurus tipping together.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting MercForHire:
Well pooie .... I've been watching a really good streaming video from Bermuda, looking out over Hamilton I think. But the guy lost power for a bit & when the computer rebooted, he's not showing any more webcam .... just a radar loop.

Anyone know of a working webcam in Bermuda now?


Link
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1199. hydrus
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
i was good buds with him in my younger days!
You mean Tom and you were paling around when Moses parted the Re....oh.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am back... should have pics up soon (SWMBO Is doing it)
Nice! That must mean you did pretty well!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
1195. LeMoyne
Quoting hydrus:
Who exactly is Tom Foolery? Is is he a member of this blog? I have been on here 3 years- Never saw a blog with that name.


++
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Well pooie .... I've been watching a really good streaming video from Bermuda, looking out over Hamilton I think. But the guy lost power for a bit & when the computer rebooted, he's not showing any more webcam .... just a radar loop.

Anyone know of a working webcam in Bermuda now?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 139
1193. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think we may see something similar to that of Hurricane Mitch 1998:

Image (Or you could just see Levi's avatar.):

Excellent loop TA 13.. The Bermuda High looking strong at day 6...It should be alright to be a west-caster by then.
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edit.

I found out what was up. lol
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Joe B.

Not a happy camper.

"SUNDAY 10 A.M.

A 949 MB, 75-MPH HURRICANE??

You have to understand the arrogance of this, that these guys can simply fly in the face of all of history. Nevermind the exposing of them by environment Canada in labeling Earl a hurricane when they tried to downgrade that, but now.

So what are the peak gusts going to be on Bermuda with this 75-mph storm?

85? 95? We shall see.

You have to look in awe at this arrogance, which is what it is. They upped Julia to Category 4 at 950, and now we have a 949 mb Category 1. Let's see, we had Fabian go by with $325 million in damage, and it was almost a Category 4. Let's see how this Category 1 compares to that.

In the end, it shows why my Power Scale is far superior to the subjective nonsense we continue to have thrown our way."


Here was Julia as a weakening cat. 2 (Sep. 16 0900 UTC, 90KT):



And here was Julia as a cat. 1 (Sep. 17 0300 UTC, 70KT):



Finally, here's Julia as a cat. 1 again (Sep. 17 0900 UTC, 75KT):



Notice any problems?
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Thought you went fishing?


I am back... should have pics up soon (SWMBO Is doing it)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Re:  the Elephant in the Parlor

One if the things that certain people on the blog cannot seem to grasp is that to actively ignore, treat someone as beneath acknowledgment is an assertive act.  The notion that if one does not reply you have "wussed out" is plain wrong.

A second is that others do not necessarily think and respond as you do.  What you find aversive and would avoid may be pleasurable to someone else.  Trolls are not like you.  (At least I hope)

"Never argue with a fool.  People will not be able to tell you apart."
and to back that thought upp..."better to keep your mouth closed, and thought a fool, than to open it, and remove all doubt" :^)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Joe B.

Not a happy camper.

"SUNDAY 10 A.M.

A 949 MB, 75-MPH HURRICANE??

You have to understand the arrogance of this, that these guys can simply fly in the face of all of history. Nevermind the exposing of them by environment Canada in labeling Earl a hurricane when they tried to downgrade that, but now.

So what are the peak gusts going to be on Bermuda with this 75-mph storm?

85? 95? We shall see.

You have to look in awe at this arrogance, which is what it is. They upped Julia to Category 4 at 950, and now we have a 949 mb Category 1. Let's see, we had Fabian go by with $325 million in damage, and it was almost a Category 4. Let's see how this Category 1 compares to that.

In the end, it shows why my Power Scale is far superior to the subjective nonsense we continue to have thrown our way."


Does anyone else find it ironic that this chest-beating blowhard refers to the entire NHC as arrogant and full of "subjective nonsense", while in the same breath he tells of how vastly superior are his own skills? Ah, well, the world needs a clown, and JB fills the bill nicely...
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am sorry that Rita brought you trouble. I feel your pain. Rita got everything from me. I had to have been hit by a small tornado. My neighbors did not get any damage at all.


Ah I'm sorry to hear about your home too. And I know how you feel. My neighbors had damage but ours was the only one destroyed. It wasn't a tornado. Everything was blown south. I've learned since that there are winds just from the hurricane that were previously thought to be tornadoes. Having said that, I know Rita produced a lot of tornadoes. She spread the misery far and wide. I'm glad you and yours are ok. It's a major pain in the behind to go through but as long as we're here we can start again. Not that I want to go through that again as long as I live! Lol. Thought I'd add that in case Mother Nature is lurking. Can't hurt. :)
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1184. hydrus
Quoting MelbourneTom:
IGOR continues to weaken

Publix ran out of Wheaties ..:)
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IGOR continues to weaken

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Quoting Orcasystems:



Thought you went fishing?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Didn't realize how many views my account had.

98% are from WU.




Wow.

I have to update my album on Photobucket.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Didn't realize how many views my account had.

98% are from WU.






how and where do you find that out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
I like the last line from the stormcarib blogger. :)


As daylight fades at The Peak, all is secure. It's gotten progressively wild
out there, wind howling (rather rumbling) constantly. but not Fabian. Lots of
branches and small limbs down, no trees so far. Fingers crossed. Just 2.5 hours
to the peak, and Igor seems to be slightly weakening and moved a little West.
CPA forty odd mls west at 10. Hope the rest of the island is faring as well as
the Peak.now a refreshment - cold coffee or warm beer ?

Stay safe, Bermuda






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Didn't realize how many views my account had.

98% are from WU.


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1173. LeMoyne
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Big difference from the near perfectness from a couple days ago:





Thats a week ago ...
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the new two come out any time now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
1171. WxLogic
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Hurricane Igor

ISS

FULL IMAGE (VERY large)


Beautiful shot...
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1170. JLPR2
Quoting mbjjm:
Live Webcam from Bermuda


Awesome! They got the creepy uhhh... sound.
Doesn't look like a hurricane for the moment but it sure looks like a strong TS.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.