A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Might have been dreaming, but I could have sworn that wind was coming from the RIGHT of the webcam 2 minutes ago. Now they are getting some type of rain or something straight from the upper-left. COC might have just slid past that area.
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New York City tornadoes confirmed – Rare event also brings 125 mph winds


Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I've seen that, the only thing I was trying to point out is that "when" something forms, anyones guess as to where it goes is just as good as the next persons guess


agree, my post was an attempt to support just those thoughts from you in a previous post
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
Quoting MercForHire:
I noticed that "sports network" cam link had already been posted after I made the post asking for another cam.

That one I was watching wouldn't be any good now anyway, as it's gotten dark. So I'll just watch this one & see how long that little tree survives.

The wind there doesn't look REAL bad, but about every minute or so they'll get a pretty stiff gale. Bermuda got lucky on this one, and I'm glad they did.


Umm your definition of Lucky sucks... a CAT 1 passing to your west at less then 40 miles...
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting swlaaggie:


conjecture....for now

Name a state bordering the gulf and there's probably been a post by someone declaring a future hit
..and depending on the state, a 10 to 30% chance they are right!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting swlaaggie:


looking at the 18z GFS at 168 hours, the Bermuda high has receded well east of the EC

in other words, the entire gulf coast, from south Tx through the Florida peninsula, is exposed - this represents quite the change from what we have seen, and experienced, throughout the bulk of this season


I've seen that, the only thing I was trying to point out is that "when" something forms, anyones guess as to where it goes is just as good as the next persons guess
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1411
I noticed that "sports network" cam link had already been posted after I made the post asking for another cam.

That one I was watching wouldn't be any good now anyway, as it's gotten dark. So I'll just watch this one & see how long that little tree survives.

The wind there doesn't look REAL bad, but about every minute or so they'll get a pretty stiff gale. Bermuda got lucky on this one, and I'm glad they did.
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Anyone see this video from NYC when a possible tornado hit this past Thursday?

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I think the HH has finished and heading home




Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting TxLisa:
Good Evening! I read earlier that a possible disturbance in the BOC might impact Texas as a hurricane. Does anyone have any information on this or a possible link? I sure would appreciate it!


conjecture....for now

Name a state bordering the gulf and there's probably been a post by someone declaring a future hit
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
1256. xcool


gfs18z ensembles furthe wwesttttttttt
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1255. JLPR2
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Or very bad depending on your point of view. :)


Exactly, but considering it is out in fish territory I think it is safe to say it is good. :]
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8653


Hurricane Igor is still a hurricane, abeit a borderline Cat 1/Tropical storm, with winds of 75 mph.

94L is up to 80 percent.

Whole Text from Advisory #47A of hurricane Igor.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 192338
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

...LARGE IGOR HEADED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER BERMUDA SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 65.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR
WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER OF BERMUDA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IGOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

IGOR IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. THE
OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH...107
KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Really? A 953 millibar, 75 mph hurricane? Igor is so large that the winds are being distributed over a very large area. Although hurricane-force winds extend 65-75 miles from the center on either side of the storm, tropical storm-force winds extend up to 325-335 miles from the center of the storm on either side.

Folks in Bermuda are experiencing a very windy, miserable night with hurricane Igor, and hurricane-force winds should continue until 1:00 AM, but tropical storm-force winds should continue for another 12-18 hours on Bermuda. That makes a total of 24-36 hours of tropical storm conditions for Bermuda, and I think that once Igor is gone, then the Cape Verde Season should slowly wind down while the Caribbean Hurricane Season should quickly ramp up. I fear that many lives along the Caribbean Islands and the East Coast of the US will be threatened

(NOTE: this post was made minutes ago, and somebody may have posted this already)
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1253. TxLisa
Good Evening! I read earlier that a possible disturbance in the BOC might impact Texas as a hurricane. Does anyone have any information on this or a possible link? I sure would appreciate it!
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1249. swlaaggie
12:03 AM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
It was tropical...and very nice weather in that pic!


this!

I laughed
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1247. pottery
12:02 AM GMT on September 20, 2010
Good Evening all.

No rain today here. Glory Be!!
But there is a serious rumbling and grumbling going on right now just east of me. A tall Cumulus is flashing like a Strobe...

Positive Vibes, to Bermuda..
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24233
1245. weatherportricheyfl
12:01 AM GMT on September 20, 2010
YOU GUYS EVERYONE HASNT EVEN SEEN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING WATCH THE 00 GFS MODEL WELL GO BACK HITING THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AROUND TARPON SPRINGS OR DUNEDIN THE QUESTION IS HOW STRONG
Member Since: July 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
1244. swlaaggie
12:01 AM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


Does anyone else find it ironic that this chest-beating blowhard refers to the entire NHC as arrogant and full of "subjective nonsense", while in the same breath he tells of how vastly superior are his own skills? Ah, well, the world needs a clown, and JB fills the bill nicely...


clown or salesman, you be the judge

:-)
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1243. RENONV
12:01 AM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting anyotherliestotell:


perhaps you aren't aware. this is the EXACT kind of email that MOST drives the good Doctor and the "administrators" crazy. you really think they are going to intervene on your behalf because in your opinion people aren't following the "rules"? did you tell on kids for chewing gum in class as a school child as well? leave the man to work his job and post his updates . . . his reasoned analysis provides the perfect antidote to the none-sense and speculation posted here. in fact your very own post violates the "rules" . . . about whining about others posts . . .


No, I didn't tell on my class mates for chewing gum,but On here I have been provided a button by the admin to censor you.
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1241. JLPR2
12:01 AM GMT on September 20, 2010
And according to the ASCAT pass this is too far to the north.
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1239. PrivateIdaho
12:00 AM GMT on September 20, 2010
Quoting JLPR2:
94L looks good...
Or very bad depending on your point of view. :)
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1236. JLPR2
11:57 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
94L looks good...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8653
1234. swlaaggie
11:56 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Taz -- just saying, that we will probably see some action that moves into the GOM, just where ans when is another story


looking at the 18z GFS at 168 hours, the Bermuda high has receded well east of the EC

in other words, the entire gulf coast, from south Tx through the Florida peninsula, is exposed - this represents quite the change from what we have seen, and experienced, throughout the bulk of this season
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
1233. ElConando
11:56 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting robj144:


Have nothing against the animal, but the football team sucks.


That sucky football team is looking at all the teams below it in the division :)
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
1232. ElConando
11:55 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


:)
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
1229. largeeyes
11:53 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Igor's waves beat the crap out of me the last 2 days. It was awesome!
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
1228. cctxshirl
11:53 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
my area
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OLMITO...BROWNSVILLE

* THE HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CAMERON
COUNTIES CONTINUES TO INUNDATE STREETS AND HIGHWAYS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES SINCE THIS MORNING HAS OVERWHELMED THE
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND SOME RESACAS ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRAINAGE
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW IN
CATCHING UP WITH THE EXTENSIVE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS ALL
AREAS OF THE CITY. SEVERAL STREETS...ROADWAYS AND HIGHWAYS IN
CAMERON COUNTY IN AND AROUND BROWNSVILLE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE FLOODING CONDITIONS UNTIL DRAINAGE DITCHES ARE RELIEVED
OF THE ABUNDANT WATER AND CITY PUMPS CAN ALLEVIATE THE STREETS OF
STANDING HIGH WATER.
* AT 445 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES ONLY
LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO IN
TAMAULIPAS STATE. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 20 MPH.
EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS THE INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE COULD PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WHERE WATER REMAINS
HIGH. DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS AS THE SUN
SETS AND VISIBILITY REDUCES THROUGH THE EVENING.

AT 400 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED
EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN BROWNSVILLE, NEAR THE 802 AND
281 INTERSECTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 511 FROM OLMITO TO PORT OF
BROWNSVILLE, OLD PORT ISABEL RD TO HIGHWAY 511 AND ALONG MILITARY
HIGHWAY ESPECIALLY IN THE QUAIL HOLLOW SUBDIVISION. OTHER AREAS THAT
ARE REPORTING HIGH WATER INCLUDE GALAXI SUBDIVISION AND PORTWAY
ACRES SUBDIVISION ALONG CENTRAL AVENUE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
BROWNSVILLE.

Did they mention anything about 40 days and 40 nights and an ark?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 334
1227. robj144
11:53 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting CapnJak:

The Dolphins?


Now that is funny. :)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
1225. CapnJak
11:52 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting robj144:


Lets see who's laughing at the end of the year.

The Dolphins?
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
1222. Tazmanian
11:50 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
too bad Igor was not in the E PAC and head up too CA from MX we would be seeing TS winds all the way up too CA
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
1220. AstroHurricane001
11:49 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm confused what is so rare of Igor having that low of a pressure, I thought large systems have lower than normal pressures? O.o


Ike had a minimum central pressure of 944 mb as a cat. 2. Florence hit Bermuda in 2006 and had a minimum pressure of 974 mb. What's so unusual for Igor is that it's become the largest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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