A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1319. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says 94L's pressure hasn't dropped--its still at 1008--and its winds haven't increased--they're still at 25:

AL, 94, 2010092000, , BEST, 0, 156N, 316W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

IOW, probably no TD this evening...


I dont get why they have it so far north, new ASCAT said 15N.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8652
Quoting pottery:

Will try to remember to sing the HB song for you. Have a Fantastic one...
And to wish you some cooler days.


lol thanks! Don't think they will be here by then!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting pottery:

Nice fishy, Orc. What tackle?


30lb main with a 15lb leader... No net :(
If I had the net this morning... his big brother would be here also.

One last pic before I get punted.. mind you it shows the rain... someone else was admiring the fish.. and if he got any closer.. I would have given it to him


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
ATCF says 94L's pressure hasn't dropped--its still at 1008--and its winds haven't increased--they're still at 25:

AL, 94, 2010092000, , BEST, 0, 156N, 316W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

IOW, probably no TD this evening...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
Quoting MelbourneTom:
IGOR from CMISS

Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON
991.7mb/ 55.0kt




good bye Igor nic noing you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
1313. pottery
Quoting doorman79:


My bday is wed.(first day of fall), the first day of fall. I hope ma nature brings us some cooler weather:)

Will try to remember to sing the HB song for you. Have a Fantastic one...
And to wish you some cooler days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IGOR from CMISS

Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON
991.7mb/ 55.0kt
Member Since: June 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 619
Quoting pottery:

What's with the 10-30-10 thing??
The cold front is forecast for October 30.
(j/k, I dunno.)
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1310. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


You missed a good weekend Pottery, as you can see it was raining here :)




Nice fishy, Orc. What tackle?
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1309. CapnJak
Maybe not cool temps. but below average temps. for the southeast.
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Quoting pottery:

Possibly that....
Howdy Doorman.
Also, Hi Baha! Enjoy the showers.


My bday is wed., the first day of fall. I hope ma nature brings us some cooler weather:)
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting Orcasystems:


You missed a good weekend Pottery, as you can see it was raining here :)







nic fish
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
Quoting weatherman566:
Anyone see this video from NYC when a possible tornado hit this past Thursday?



Awesome video, thanks for posting it.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


The models in the SW Cari have sparked my interest. Looks like we may have a homebrew sometime soon.
I was pretty upset the other day when half the blogs posts were disappearing but I just drank it off over the weekend.
Nice! got to go help with dinner...let me know what you think about GOM development though.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting pottery:

Possibly that....
Howdy Doorman.
Also, Hi Baha! Enjoy the showers.


You missed a good weekend Pottery, as you can see it was raining here :)



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1302. pottery
Quoting CapnJak:
Here we go again!



Ike said a cold front my be coming our way chicklit.

10.30.10

What's with the 10-30-10 thing??
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1300. CapnJak
Here we go again!



Ike said a cold front my be coming our way chicklit.

10.30.10
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1299. pottery
Quoting doorman79:


Could Be the fire dept messing with him, Hey Pottery.

Possibly that....
Howdy Doorman.
Also, Hi Baha! Enjoy the showers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaT:
did storm leave/>
?


YEP!! Gone like the wind!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what this say stormW is doing a WU Jail sentence.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
Quoting floridaT:
does anyone have any idea how lucky the us has been this year we have dodged many bullets


I hope you can say that in December. The season is far from over.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
YOU GUYS EVERYONE HASNT EVEN SEEN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING WATCH THE 00 GFS MODEL WELL GO BACK HITING THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AROUND TARPON SPRINGS OR DUNEDIN THE QUESTION IS HOW STRONG
......hmmmm,a 10+ day landfall forecast,and look how close you predict it to make landfall to your town,see these type of posts all the time!!! ;)
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Just got back from family dinner.
I showed my brother FLDewey's avatar and he said "my hair looks better."
Of course, my mother was outraged.
In other news, it's hot here in ECFL.
Depressing.
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Quoting pottery:

You should check yr sprinkler system...


Could Be the fire dept messing with him, Hey Pottery.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
i see JFV is back with other name
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114919
1287. pottery
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... not sure exactly what's causing it, but we've got some pretty heavy showers going on here in SW New Providence right about now....


You should check yr sprinkler system...
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm your definition of Lucky sucks... a CAT 1 passing to your west at less then 40 miles...


Lucky compared to what it appeared they were going to get a couple days ago .... nowhere near a Cat.1

Trust me, I'm the VERY least "doomcaster" they are. I'd be tickled pink if every hurricane went right to the center of the Atlantic, stopped there & died there.

But they don't. And Bermuda was expecting something much worse than what they actually got. So in that aspect, they got lucky.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 139
Quoting insuranceguy67:
anyone have the link to stormw new site?


I do.. But if I give it out I will be banned from here
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1283. pottery
Quoting weatherman566:
Anyone see this video from NYC when a possible tornado hit this past Thursday?


Great video...
thanks.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Hey, glad to see you back...you were getting pounded on last I saw. :^)


The models in the SW Cari have sparked my interest. Looks like we may have a homebrew sometime soon.
I was pretty upset the other day when half the blogs posts were disappearing but I just drank it off over the weekend.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmm.... not sure exactly what's causing it, but we've got some pretty heavy showers going on here in SW New Providence right about now....

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Quoting JupiterFL:
Ok so we have people in Nevada and California reporting people on a tropical weather blog. Must be because they are in danger.
Hey, glad to see you back...you were getting pounded on last I saw. :^)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting floridaT:
does anyone have any idea how lucky the us has been this year we have dodged many bullets


Oh Crap, you just jinxed us! LOL J/K
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1411
Quoting TxLisa:
Good Evening! I read earlier that a possible disturbance in the BOC might impact Texas as a hurricane. Does anyone have any information on this or a possible link? I sure would appreciate it!
I think this is what you want ecwmf http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html
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Quoting FLdewey:
Haven't heard of anything serious from Bermuda yet... no exciting artwork on the AP wire today.

Meh.

10.30.10


i thought i heard some where that the shark oil had turn milky. better then your roof coming off any day.

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does anyone have any idea how lucky the us has been this year we have dodged many bullets
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
..and depending on the state, a 10 to 30% chance they are right!
Looking at the past tracks of storms near the GM this season, there is a 100% chance Brownsville Tx will get clobbered...(too true to be that funny)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting swlaaggie:


agree, my post was an attempt to support just those thoughts from you in a previous post


10-4 I appreciate it
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1411
Might have been dreaming, but I could have sworn that wind was coming from the RIGHT of the webcam 2 minutes ago. Now they are getting some type of rain or something straight from the upper-left. COC might have just slid past that area.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.