A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tropics21:
In that Video Definitely not a tornado the swirls you see are high winds circulating between the buildings causing a vortices. If the funnel was down those cars and pedestrians would have been toast We see this all the time in Chicago duriing violent Thunderstorms Downtown. the High winds probably blew out the windows and that's where You see the Debris flying winds will amplify between


It's already been confirmed as a tornado. While that camera may not have been filming the exact center of the storm, or it may have, this was an actual tornado.
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Live in Bermuda.

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1365. pottery
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
hey orca what's with the dopey tattoo? man people are such slaves to foolish trends. looks ridiculous!

Are you always so Objectionable???
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Quoting pottery:

You should check yr sprinkler system...
No worries... it stopped.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
Quoting MahFL:


I personally think those windfields are too big with what winds are actually occuring.


Weren't the wind fields measured by recon?
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1360. mbjjm
Live video from Bermuda with sound
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Orca, what kind of fish is that and how much did it weigh?


Chinook Salmon... love to say 40, but my guess would be 35 ish
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1358. pottery
Greetings Snake and Hydrus.
No rain here today. Famine LOL.
But I had a Feast today for sure.... one of those Family gatherings, where the abundant wives try to outdo one another's Culinary expertise.
To the delight of the Assembled belly's.
Ahhhh!
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1357. MahFL
Quoting aspectre:
896 raggpr


Ayeesh. That wind field is HUGE


I personally think those windfields are too big with what winds are actually occuring.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Seems we had a data gap, but eye now very visible on radar.



I mean "eye"...in a not raining sense.

Cool loop!
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Quoting floridaT:
ok who pissed storm off?
sheese i take a 2 week class and the blog falls apart
you shouldn't have stayed away so long! you probably have a lot of mail to read!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


30lb main with a 15lb leader... No net :(
If I had the net this morning... his big brother would be here also.

One last pic before I get punted.. mind you it shows the rain... someone else was admiring the fish.. and if he got any closer.. I would have given it to him




WOW Nice Rain.. I would have dropped dead of a heart attack being that close!
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Quoting MercForHire:
I noticed that "sports network" cam link had already been posted after I made the post asking for another cam.

That one I was watching wouldn't be any good now anyway, as it's gotten dark. So I'll just watch this one & see how long that little tree survives.

The wind there doesn't look REAL bad, but about every minute or so they'll get a pretty stiff gale. Bermuda got lucky on this one, and I'm glad they did.
Geez.... just hearing that wind is enough to give me the heebeejeebees.... sorry anybody has to "go through", but really glad it doesn't look to get much worse than this.

Also FYI this webcam is at the SW end of Bermuda while the airport, where Wunderground gets regular readings is at the NE end. So we should be getting some rather diffeent data at times....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
Quoting weatherman566:
Anyone see this video from NYC when a possible tornado hit this past Thursday?

In that Video Definitely not a tornado the swirls you see are high winds circulating between the buildings causing a vortices. If the funnel was down those cars and pedestrians would have been toast We see this all the time in Chicago duriing violent Thunderstorms Downtown. the High winds probably blew out the windows and that's where You see the Debris flying winds will amplify between
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Quoting weatherman566:
Anyone see this video from NYC when a possible tornado hit this past Thursday?



Wow!! It sucks the windows right out of that store front if you watch closely. Great Video
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20/0000 UTC 15.3N 31.5W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
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1348. xcool
HPC====THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THEN
WESTERN US SPILLS OVER INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US SAT/SUN.
THE 00Z ECMWF BROKE CONTINUITY AND NOW DEVELOPS A CLOSED 500 MB
HIGH OVER CA SAT. DOWNSTREAM...THE 500 MB TROUGH AMPLIFIES COMING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND THE ECMWF EVEN DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER BY 12Z SUN. NONE OF THE PRIOR RUN
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED THIS SOLUTION...WHICH IS ALSO OUT OF
SYNCH WITH TELECONNECTIONS.

FARTHER EASTWARD...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH EXIST. GFS ENSEMBLES BECOME ANOMOLOUSLY
AMPLIFIED. ALSO...THE 00 UTC CANADIAN/ECMWF MOVE THE TROUGH OFF
THE COAST FASTER THAN THE 00 UTC GFS/12Z SAT ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE LATTER CLUSTER DOES LINES UP WELL WITH
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CLOSED LOW...WHICH SHOWS A
BUILDING WEST NORTHERN AMERICA 500 MB RIDGE AND LOW AMPLITUDE
GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY TROUGH. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT
THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE MAY NOT BUILD AS STRONG AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGSTS WITH ALL THE FLOW/EMBEDDED SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...A MORE COMPROMISE RIDGE AMPLITIDE MAY BE LEND A
EAST-CENTRAL US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH
A MORE COMPROMISE 06 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The HurricaneTrack team is back on air as they intercept Hurricane Igor. Conditions there appear to have continued to deteriorate as they face the eastern eyewall.

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Quoting stormpetrol:
According to latest tweet from Cantore Bermuda is taking the full brunt of Igor eastern eyewall right now.


Yeah, it does look like the wind really picked up in the last few minutes on the webcam.
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Though not a model fan, I don't like western caribbean, Florida concensus I've been seeing, usually spells bad news, fingers crossed!
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1343. mbjjm
news round up from Bermuda
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Updated wind analysis, obviously all of this isn't being measured by that ob site, which does seem sheltered somewhat on it east side.

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1341. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Will try to remember to sing the HB song for you. Have a Fantastic one...
And to wish you some cooler days.
Good evening Pott...Are you still getting a lot of rain down there?...Feast or famine here..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22227
Quoting swlaaggie:


conjecture....for now

Name a state bordering the gulf and there's probably been a post by someone declaring a future hit
heavily supported by at least one recent run of the GFS, which has recently forecast landfall just about everywhere N of 20 and W of 70.... lol

It's a wait and see, I'd say...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
1339. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:

What's with the 10-30-10 thing??


Hi Pottery, you can google it, stands for a comedy skit Jon Stewart is doing Oct 30, 2010.
bloggers have been tacking it on their posts since yesterday. Could be considered off topic political humor. Admin will make the call I'm sure. :)
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I see we have a few days of quite after Igor... then at least three models have a system in the Caribbean

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According to latest tweet from Cantore Bermuda is taking the full brunt of Igor eastern eyewall right now.
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Water level running 1.3 feet above normal tides.



Winds not exactly rockin...
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1334. hydrus
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
We went brontasaurus tipping together.
Cretaceous was a good time to be around P.I......a tad warm though......Speaking of warm,,,,is this water in the Caribbean sea warm enough to support tropical cyclone development...?:)..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22227
Quoting Orcasystems:


You missed a good weekend Pottery, as you can see it was raining here :)



Sweet!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting swlaaggie:


clown or salesman, you be the judge

:-)
Still waiting for a more scientific method behind this new system of his... meanwhile there is an obvious difference IMO between cat 4 Julia and cat 1 Igor... size maketh not the storm, if u get my drift....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22680
I don't agree with the NW movement of 94L, once again though admittingly computer models usually pan out in the end if even a day or 2 late I don't agree a NW movemwnt as of now
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1330. mbjjm
It is look more likely Bermuda will not get hurricane conditions from Igor ,mostly in gust onlyexcept the higher elevations.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Quoting Orcasystems:


With the Bear..I only have to be able to out run SWMBO :)


So wrong, but funny:)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


With the Bear..I only have to be able to out run SWMBO :)


If she reads that, you'll be wishing for the bear. ;-)
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1327. bird72
Quoting JLPR2:


I dont get why they have it so far north, new ASCAT said 15N.

Even is moving southwest.
Member Since: August 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 389
Quoting hydrus:
Yes..There are tropical storm watches up from Las Vegas to Cape Sur....
ROFLMAO. Kudos, Jupiter.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting doorman79:


Great pic Orca! I am glad we only have to mess with gators and snakes lol.


With the Bear..I only have to be able to out run SWMBO :)
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1324. help4u
Blog is better than every since the cult like worship is gone.
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Seems we had a data gap, but eye now very visible on radar.



I mean "eye"...in a not raining sense.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


30lb main with a 15lb leader... No net :(
If I had the net this morning... his big brother would be here also.

One last pic before I get punted.. mind you it shows the rain... someone else was admiring the fish.. and if he got any closer.. I would have given it to him




Great pic Orca! I am glad we only have to mess with gators and snakes lol.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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