A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Coastal South Carolina wave heights
Has this peaked at 8.5? Still need to keep out of the water.

Buoy Station 41004 (LLNR 825) - EDISTO -
41 NM Southeast of Charleston
Lat:32.501 Lng:-79.099


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Africa is alive & well... possible 2 areas of Invest..... following

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Did anyone look at the radar link Dr M posted? Igor's eastern "eye" is grazing Bermuda...
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1411. Drakoen
ASCAT reveals a closed low on 94L:

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1410. hydrus
This model has the entire Eastern Seaboard getting some heavy weather...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
1409. mbjjm
Guess we can Call Igor Tropical Storm Igor
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1408. leddyed
Quoting MercForHire:
Well pooie .... I've been watching a really good streaming video from Bermuda, looking out over Hamilton I think. But the guy lost power for a bit & when the computer rebooted, he's not showing any more webcam .... just a radar loop.

Anyone know of a working webcam in Bermuda now?


Link
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Gilbert Hill on the island of Bermuda is currently reporting winds coming out of the ESE at 71mph and gusts of 88mph. Pressure down to 28.56in. Here's the weather sticker (discount the rainfall as it is incorrect):

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Is it me, or is Igor gravitating toward Bermuda? I guess he wants to make a landfall...
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1405. pottery
Quoting BioChemist:


When I catch a snook or a tarpon, nothing tries to eat me :)

Yeah! But that's so boring....
heheheh
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1404. xcool
bye Igor lol
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Gusts near hurricane-force are affecting the island. Conditions will continue to gradually deteriorate before improving after midnight.

Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 10 min 0 sec ago
Light Rain
77 °F
Light Rain Blowing Spray
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 52 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 72 mph
Pressure: 28.65 in (Falling)
Visibility: 1.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1401. BDAwx
Quoting BDAwx:
Im sure south shore is seeing hurricane force winds at least in gusts right now. but here, at my house - it isn't too bad.

To be fair, my anemometer is at an unreliably low 15feet above the ground.
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Quoting BDAwx:
Checking in from Bermuda...
I'm in a sheltered area and have seen winds between 20-25mph, but gusts between 40-55mph. The pressure continues dropping here and my barometer is getting 968.0mb as of 954pm Bermuda time. I've had 1.86" of rain so far. I'm on generator power, my entire neighborhood is out of power and the opposite hill is half out of power last I checked. At least two trees have been downed or significantly damaged in view from my house. Just staying safe.


Glad you could check in and are safe!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, where can I find him? The stupid TWC is showing "storm stories".

lol XD
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Quoting BioChemist:


When I catch a snook or a tarpon, nothing tries to eat me :)


Alligators.. sharks.. snakes... fire ants...spiders... no thank you.
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1396. BDAwx
Im sure south shore is seeing hurricane force winds at least in gusts right now. but here, at my house - it isn't too bad.
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Igor is not a fish storm now lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114024
Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't agree with the NW movement of 94L, once again though admittingly computer models usually pan out in the end if even a day or 2 late I don't agree a NW movemwnt as of now


Igor is passing right now within 30 miles of the point where the GFS said it would pass closest to Bermuda....back to the 15th of Sept (5 days ago).
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1392. pottery
Quoting PcolaDan:

So you're saying the wives there are similar to those of some of the Pacific Islands? :)

Either that, or we have an Abundance of wives. Each one of us.
In any event, food was also Abundant.
And we had a great south-westerly blow across/through the valley we were in, whipping the trees whip around and dance.
It was fun watching the leaves being blown UP the hillside and over the ridge.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


With the Bear..I only have to be able to out run SWMBO :)


When I catch a snook or a tarpon, nothing tries to eat me :)
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---
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
You gotta love Cantore and those goggles:)
Lol, where can I find him? The stupid TWC is showing "storm stories".
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1386. hydrus
Quoting pilotguy1:


Your barometer sounds like it shouldn't go too much lower. Stay safe. We're all with you.
I would guess you are going to get the worst Igor has to offer in the next 6 hours. Then very gradual improvement..Stay safe God Bless..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

At least winds aren't at Hurricane force...
I doubt that they're actually that low. From everything I've seen, winds on the island are averaging around 40-55mph and that is sustained.

Stay safe and try to keep us informed. We'll be here giving you the latest updates.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1382. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FANAPI (T1011)
9:00 AM JST September 20 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland South China

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fanapi (985 hPa) located at 23.9N 117.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.9N 112.5E - Tropical Depression
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Is contact with the blog's author, Dr JM posted on this community blog?
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1380. WXTXN
Small swirl headed offshore in Brownsville radar. this is heading away from land and out to the area of colder cloud tops out in the gulf. Hope the low that is now inland doesn't decide reform out over the water with the next pulse of convection tonight...
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
ok orca i'll accept that. navy is a legit reason. you scooped me!


I wasn't expecting a response...I was really hoping you had caught onto the second part of the sentence.

FOCUS young man.
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Quoting BDAwx:
Checking in from Bermuda...
I'm in a sheltered area and have seen winds between 20-25mph, but gusts between 40-55mph. The pressure continues dropping here and my barometer is getting 968.0mb as of 954pm Bermuda time. I've had 1.86" of rain so far. I'm on generator power, my entire neighborhood is out of power and the opposite hill is half out of power last I checked. At least two trees have been downed or significantly damaged in view from my house. Just staying safe.

At least winds aren't at Hurricane force...
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You missed a good weekend Pottery, as you can see it was raining here :)



Obviously YOU were nowhere around when that was caught, or it woulda been missing half its lower body.... or at least the tail.... lol

Nice looking fish.

[Also pretty obvious u r not getting hit by hurricane Igor.... lol]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
1374. juniort
What about this trough system east of the Lesser Antilles islands?
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Quoting pottery:
Greetings Snake and Hydrus.
No rain here today. Famine LOL.
But I had a Feast today for sure.... one of those Family gatherings, where the abundant wives try to outdo one another's Culinary expertise.
To the delight of the Assembled belly's.
Ahhhh!

So you're saying the wives there are similar to those of some of the Pacific Islands? :)
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1372. pottery
Quoting BahaHurican:
No worries... it stopped.

LOL
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1371. BDAwx
Checking in from Bermuda...
I'm in a sheltered area and have seen winds between 20-25mph, but gusts between 40-55mph. The pressure continues dropping here and my barometer is getting 968.0mb as of 954pm Bermuda time. I've had 1.86" of rain so far. I'm on generator power, my entire neighborhood is out of power and the opposite hill is half out of power last I checked. At least two trees have been downed or significantly damaged in view from my house. Just staying safe.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.