A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1470. leddyed
Quoting stillwaiting:
....are you from ledyard,ct....is that what your handle means???


LOL, nah, it's just a play of words on my real name. I'm a South GA boy.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Yeah he's only fun in small doses...I'm jealous of that fish Orca caught. It would really be fun on an 8 weight.
Me too.  I don't own anything that would turn that guy!
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Quoting hydrus:
Thats what happens when you give a 3 year old a box of crayons.

lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
Quoting leddyed:


NWS says two EF1s and a huge macroburst.
....are you from ledyard,ct....is that what your handle means???
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1465. JLPR2
Quoting Drakoen:
ASCAT reveals a closed low on 94L:



Yeah TD 14 is trying to form.
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah! But that's so boring....
heheheh
Only three critters I worry about around here...Griz, Moose, Bison. And you are right...when they are in the area you are not bored!
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Igor's structure has long since left us:

Really looking very, very extratropical in that image....
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why are people acting like Igor won't cause trouble. ts force and cat 1 force winds for that many hours will be harmful.
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Coastal South Carolina wave heights
Has this peaked at 8.5? Still need to keep out of the water.

Buoy Station 41004 (LLNR 825) - EDISTO -
41 NM Southeast of Charleston
Lat:32.501 Lng:-79.099


Prolly has peaked.

According to WaveWatch, will remain high through tomorrow, though.

Tabular wave height forecast for the spot in which that buoy resides:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/nww3_bull.cgi?1&latest_run/wna.41004
Total wave height, "Hst" in first column after day & hour.
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Quoting LeMoyne:
Ok one last try...

LISA is now a major hurricane with arms that stretch off two sides of the Atlantic Wide view.

NE arm goes off towards N Africa
New S three part arm has a top and middle arm that stretches to 43W and 40W -- 30 degrees long
The other goes out of frame south past 5N
Still a TD??


Look at this clearing in the center - looks horrible you say?


Happened in 15 minutes.... care to hazard a guess at the wind speeds involved?????

Just give her an hour or threee and you will see the ADT/ACE/T mount. Lisa sheared a broad swath of the eastern ITCZ with the arm attachment. Lol What a fantastic pressure wave was that ?? lol Maybe a TS now ??? ohhh right that was a transitory phenomena. roflmao

She will be outflowing over two continents soon
Major now and by tomorrow on the NHC.

To think that this storm started with three little eddies by the Cape Verdes last night. I can see why you dont believe me ...

Try initializing your models with the real LISA at 13N31W and moving S and a little east.





...,hmmm,you sound just like a certain someone who recently just took their toys and left the sandbox(blog),lol
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1454. hydrus
Quoting bird72:
94l!

Thats what happens when you give a 3 year old a box of crayons.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20505
Quoting pottery:

He has taken over 50% of the comment space here.
Just like JFV did.


For a different reason, Pottery. JFV is a buffoon and people consider him a joke. People were interested in what SW had to say.
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Quoting pottery:

Are you always so Objectionable???
Yes.

Quoting BDAwx:
Checking in from Bermuda...
I'm in a sheltered area and have seen winds between 20-25mph, but gusts between 40-55mph. The pressure continues dropping here and my barometer is getting 968.0mb as of 954pm Bermuda time. I've had 1.86" of rain so far. I'm on generator power, my entire neighborhood is out of power and the opposite hill is half out of power last I checked. At least two trees have been downed or significantly damaged in view from my house. Just staying safe.
Glad to hear u are safe. Stay hunkered down and let us know how u r if it's possible.

Quoting Txwxchaser:
Is contact with the blog's author, Dr JM posted on this community blog?
Just Wundermail him... there's a link on the upper right side of the blog page, near his picture.

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Quoting clwstmchasr:


He was on at the top of the hour for about 2 minutes then they went to "storm stories".


So they have people on the ground, live where a storm is actually hitting... And instead of actual news coverage, they give it the same attention as a Home Depot commercial?

... And to think, people wonder why I programmed my TV to skip over The Weathertainment Channel.
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NWS Upton confirmed two tornados.

One EF1 and a EF0

Also a 120mph macroburst.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1446. hydrus
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

I don't know if its the same guy but I hung out with a fellow by that name at a couple of Sat night cook outs.  Fun fellow on the whole.  Strange thing though he never to picked up the tab so we parted company.
We do not like freeloaders either Shen..Once O.K. no problemo....This model is worth a looLinkk if you have not seen it. It is the NAM which generally suX but its the location that is important with this run...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20505
Begin Rant

The Weather Channel really needs to take off shows like "Storm Stories" and "When Weather Changed History".

Your a weather channel for god sakes, the only one we have, and your supposed to give us up to date information. The best thing for TWC to do would be to take off all of those stupid shows, and actually broadcast the weather for once!

Rant over
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1444. leddyed
Quoting mbjjm:
Doubt New York saw a tornado, most likely a microburst.


NWS says two EF1s and a huge macroburst.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




good bye Igor nic noing you
...,i stated hours ago on the blog that dry air and se sheer was decoupling him!!!
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12Z CMC Ensemble Mean

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1441. mbjjm
94L will follow sister Julia out to sea.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There are 23,600 customers out of 35,000 without power.

Source: BDA Sun

Yikes!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
1438. aquak9
(laughs quietly)
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Removed by request.
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1436. mbjjm
Doubt New York saw a tornado, most likely a microburst.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1434. bird72
94l!

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Quoting mbjjm:
Guess we can Call Igor Tropical Storm Igor


hahahahaha...

NOT! Igor is still a Hurricane, see post #1407
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There are 23,600 customers out of 35,000 without power.

Source: BDA Sun
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1430. LeMoyne
Ok one last try...

LISA is now a major hurricane with arms that stretch off two sides of the Atlantic Wide view.

NE arm goes off towards N Africa
New S three part arm has a top and middle arm that stretches to 43W and 40W -- 30 degrees long
The other goes out of frame south past 5N
Still a TD??


Look at this clearing in the center - looks horrible you say?


Happened in 15 minutes.... care to hazard a guess at the wind speeds involved?????

Just give her an hour or threee and you will see the ADT/ACE/T mount. Lisa sheared a broad swath of the eastern ITCZ with the arm attachment. That will make it easier for her to eat them all eh?

Lol What a fantastic pressure wave was that ?? lol Maybe a TS now ??? ohhh right that was a transitory phenomena. roflmao

She will be outflowing over two continents soon
LISA is a major now and by tomorrow on the NHC.

To think that this storm started with three little eddies by the Cape Verdes last night. I can see why you dont believe me ...

Try initializing your models with the real LISA at 13N31W and she is moving S and a little east.





Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
Quoting weatherman566:
Anyone see this video from NYC when a possible tornado hit this past Thursday?

Hmm. Not saying it is a fake, but it is oddly coincidental that the winds instantly pick up the moment that all of the cars are still and the only motion is from the wind moving things around. Then winds suddenly go back to the same speed as the rest of the video when the light turns green and motion of cars would give away a speed up. Also, a loud noise at the instant the winds pick up to possibly cover the sound jump (or some damage caused by the winds, maybe). Look close at time 2:28.

(post 1259)

I find that section to be suspicious.
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Quoting hydrus:
You mean Tom and you were paling around when Moses parted the Re....oh.
I don't know if its the same guy but I hung out with a fellow by that name at a couple of Sat night cook outs.  Fun fellow on the whole.  Strange thing though he never offered to picked up the tab so we parted company.
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1426. leddyed
Live webcam from Bermuda.

Link
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1425. BDAwx
Quoting FLdewey:
Dozens of lawn chairs have been destroyed today.

I hope Bermuda has a gas station with a rickety awning, otherwise news outlets will be at a loss for graphics.


Link
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For those who may have missed these items and charts from today's blog entry: as of today's 5pm TWO, Igor's ACE is 39.4875, which is higher than that of any storm in the Atlantic since 2004's Hurricane Ivan. ACE-wise, Igor has been a more energetic storm than even 2005's record-breaking monster Hurricane Wilma and 2008's very destructive Hurricane Ike. (Ivan's ACE was an amazing 70.4, a number which, given that the Cape Verde season is winding down, is highly unlikely to be surpassed this year.)

Perhaps even more astonishing: Igor's ACE to-date is higher than that for the entire Eastern Pacific this season. (The EPac has seen six named storms, including Cat 5 Celia). And Igor is very close to equaling the current ACE for the entire Western North Pacific, as well, which has seen 11 named storms.

ACE by Year

ACE Accumulation
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Quoting pottery:

He has taken over 50% of the comment space here.
Just like JFV did.


Gonna be like this for a while...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1422. hydrus
The last frame on this model also looks interesting...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20505
Igor's structure has long since left us:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.